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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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11-19-2017, 11:38 AM | #111 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
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FTL
I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on using TPR in the handicapping process Shoeless |
11-23-2017, 02:21 PM | #112 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
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FTL
One thing I have picked up from your teachings is looking at the 3rd fraction in Energy when race variegates sustained. I have been doing races just trying to learn and it seems so far that these horses win a high percentage Happy Thanksgiving and Thanks for your help |
11-24-2017, 12:01 PM | #113 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
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I think in the FU'S Doc had mentioned about betting the 3rd fraction horses
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11-25-2017, 11:22 AM | #114 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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2 fractions
Hi Jeff
This is why the EXDC and SP readouts are so powerful The mantra of the teaching members was beware of 1 run horses I will use a example from TPR Modeling the EPR LPR and TPR readouts you will most likely see your winning horses have two of the these readout being in the top 4 Here are my most recent 20 races from my Model These are the rankings for the Winning horse and Place horse WIN Place |
11-25-2017, 01:26 PM | #115 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
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Bill
Nice work you have helped me out as always FTL'S example using energy was a big help too otherwise I would still be looking at that first ranking screen for sustained races Both of you make a great teaching combo Jeff |
02-05-2018, 12:13 AM | #116 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Quote:
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03-03-2018, 09:33 PM | #117 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 80
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Don't always throw out horses over 90 days. Look at how the horse matches up with other horses. Today at GP 03/03/2018. First race at 6.5 Furlongs, the number 1 horse Miss Helen is lone Early horse off for 154 days and won by 4.5 lengths and paid $12.80 to win, and the 11th race horse number 11 Hofburg with the best 2nd fraction off for 182 days, won the race and paid $17.00 to win. GP race number 14, the number 10 horse won off 98 days layoff and paid $38.40 to win.
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03-04-2018, 07:47 AM | #118 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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winning: You are correct and the # 1 in the 1st race was off 154 days. I had the # 1 and gave it to LT1 . To be honest with you I didn't make a dime off of it. I played it in the EX and DD and missed both. The 2nd race was a maiden and the EX the place horse #2 was no where on my radar. I took a shot because I knew the one would pay good and had a big chance.
Long layoff don't brother me and I handle them OK. This # 1 last 3 races were in routes and returned to its best distance today and the distance of its only win. It also had a new trainer who is 18% first start with trainer. Steady workout and one a bullet for the return while down in class and decent odds. All layoff horses aren't the same and must be put into context. Mitch44 |
03-04-2018, 09:52 AM | #119 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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The only time I bet a layoff horse is if the horse won in the past off a layoff
and only with recreational/action money ... The stats show that layoffs are a losing preposition... Here is stats from this year and broken down by tracks... except for 3 tracks....layoffs horses lose you money.. You can point out those winners but there will be 9 out 10 that will lose. You can follow guidelines but if you have doubts about a race or horse..PASS IT! Code:
**************************************************************************************** WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE TRACK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI **************************************************************************************** MVR 147 20 0.1361 1.3215 1.2109 36 0.2449 0.8969 LRL 137 18 0.1314 1.2759 1.1912 29 0.2117 1.0109 GGX 191 19 0.0995 0.9661 1.0466 43 0.2251 0.8969 OPX 486 49 0.1008 0.9787 0.8909 82 0.1687 0.657 FGX 361 41 0.1136 1.103 0.8723 76 0.2105 0.7504 TUP 188 21 0.1117 1.0846 0.8564 35 0.1862 0.6934 FON 191 22 0.1152 1.1186 0.8304 43 0.2251 0.7754 CTX 147 16 0.1088 1.0564 0.8116 26 0.1769 0.5707 DED 322 29 0.0901 0.8748 0.746 57 0.177 0.6972 TAM 406 42 0.1034 1.004 0.7325 87 0.2143 0.772 SAX 442 48 0.1086 1.0545 0.7005 95 0.2149 0.6934 GPX 643 59 0.0918 0.8914 0.6561 132 0.2053 0.7421 TPX 198 18 0.0909 0.8826 0.6449 34 0.1717 0.7864 AQU 221 32 0.1448 1.406 0.6335 59 0.267 0.6158 HOU 279 25 0.0896 0.87 0.5473 53 0.19 0.6138 SUN 215 17 0.0791 0.768 0.5251 34 0.1581 0.626 PHA 105 13 0.1238 1.2021 0.4676 22 0.2095 0.7962 PEN 95 8 0.0842 0.8176 0.3842 20 0.2105 0.9147 PMX 29 2 0.069 0.67 0.1828 5 0.1724 0.469 LAX 26 2 0.0769 0.7467 0.1615 5 0.1923 0.4 RIL 55 2 0.0364 0.3534 0.1145 8 0.1455 0.2873
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
03-04-2018, 10:07 AM | #120 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Mike:
Is your cutoff date for layoffs 90 days or something else? Please state. Thanks, |
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