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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-24-2017, 01:47 PM   #11
raceman5
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Tampa Bay Dows

I believe Sat at Tampa Bay downs there are 2 Handicap races going.


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Old 11-24-2017, 06:49 PM   #12
The Pook
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Speaking of Handicap Races here is one going in ten minutes at CD. The top three weights are

9-123 lbs odds 6-5
1-123 lbs odds 6-1
4-121 lbs odds 15-1

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Old 11-24-2017, 11:35 PM   #13
For The Lead
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FTL,

I recall a post you made about multiple winners in allowance races, but could not find it. I know it had to do with NW?X races where wins below the level of the race pointed to winners in many cases.

Can you find or re-create that lesson?

Thanks,
Hi Bill,

I think the condition you are looking for is “NON WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER”

The abbreviation for this condition is “NW1X”.

The purpose of this condition is to allow horses that have been racing in, and broke their maidens in, MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT RACES to continue their racing career without having to offer them for sale in a claiming race. So, the above condition was created.

What happens is, many horses were just plain “overvalued” by their owners. They keep running in this condition without ever winning and should be entered in a claiming race. These horses can and do run some good races, but just never win. The public, however, continues to bet them and in many cases make them the favorite.

Now let’s look at the other part of the condition. The “other than” part. As an example, if you have a horse with 10 lifetime wins, all in claiming races, this horse is eligible to run in this condition.
When the public sees a claiming horse in a race with allowance horses it automatically determines the claiming horses are not as good and bet on the allowance horses. But is this necessarily true? Each handicapper has to ask themselves this question. What is better, an 1 for 18 horse that has only beat maidens in an allowance race or a 10 for 30 claiming horse? Horses that show the ability to win races are better than horses that don’t win races.

If you end up with a race in this condition and the race is full of claiming horses with multiple wins and just one or two allowance horses that are 1 for something, then handicap the race as you would normally and ignore the 1 for somethings that have had more than enough chances to win.

Also, keep in mind that as soon as you get to the next condition “NON WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN”, everything changes. You can no longer take the approach as noted above.

Another thing that needs mentioning is, California generally doesn’t offer the conditions mentioned above. Instead, they use “money” in place of “a race”. So their conditions would read “NON WINNERS OF $XX,XXX OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER”. The amount of money increases as the number of wins increase. So the abbreviations will read either “NW$X or NW$2X or NW$3X”.

And one last thing. Racing Secretaries all over the country are trying to fill races, so they get creative with the conditions they write. The other thing is, they are looking for ways to stimulate interest in their state’s “state bred” program, so they devise ways to write races to that end.

My best advice is to read and understand the conditions. They are important to your overall handicapping.

One could take a race with the worst horses known to man, pick a line for each horse and then look at your program.
If all you’re looking at are numbers, all races look the same.
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Old 11-25-2017, 01:02 AM   #14
Bill Lyster
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Is the money part of the condition the winners purse money, or any placement where the money limit is reached? So if its NW$X and $ = $10.000, is the $10,000 the winners purse or if it was a $50,000 purse and place was 20%, does the $10,000 place money exclude the horse?

Thanks,
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Old 11-25-2017, 02:51 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Is the money part of the condition the winners purse money, or any placement where the money limit is reached? So if its NW$X and $ = $10.000, is the $10,000 the winners purse or if it was a $50,000 purse and place was 20%, does the $10,000 place money exclude the horse?

Thanks,
If the money earned came from any source “other than” that which is specified in the categories following the words “other than” in the condition, then the horse would not be eligible.
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Old 11-25-2017, 08:13 PM   #16
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You are correct

If Im reading conditions correct up till it changes and this is how.
I should evaluate the horse.
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