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Old 10-11-2018, 11:21 AM   #1
partsnut
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BEL 10-11-18 Race-2 Using Thoromation

BEL 10-11-18 Race-2 Using Thoromation

I would make a win bet on #2 La Naturel if I could get 4-1 odds at the gate.
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:24 AM   #2
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More Read Outs

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Old 10-11-2018, 12:47 PM   #3
Jeebs
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Tough race

With the mud, the race is one huge wild-a$$ guess. I'm thinking that if #11 can get out, maybe it wires the field. By far, the fastest F1 and a very early E/L differential, and lone Early energy median%. However, anything can happen when most of the field doesn't have ratable dirt races.

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Old 10-11-2018, 02:10 PM   #4
Jeebs
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Top contra horse gets the duke and pays a nice price. My bad!
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Old 10-12-2018, 01:00 PM   #5
Mark
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Why?

Why would you ever consider a turf line in a sloppy or muddy race?
Why would you consider a horse that has never run on dirt, fast, sloppy or muddy as a win contender?
Selecting pacelines is probably the most important skill a handicapper can have. Why would you surrender that to a mechanical paceline selection routine?
Why would you select a paceline with a huge negative DTV indicating that the track was running extremely fast and utilize a archaic adjustment process that applies final time variant to the internal fractions?

Each of us has to answer these questions and satisfy ourselves that what we are doing is meaningful handicapping and not playing fun with numbers!
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Old 10-12-2018, 02:01 PM   #6
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark View Post
Why would you ever consider a turf line in a sloppy or muddy race?
Why would you consider a horse that has never run on dirt, fast, sloppy or muddy as a win contender?
Selecting pacelines is probably the most important skill a handicapper can have. Why would you surrender that to a mechanical paceline selection routine?
Why would you select a paceline with a huge negative DTV indicating that the track was running extremely fast and utilize a archaic adjustment process that applies final time variant to the internal fractions?

Each of us has to answer these questions and satisfy ourselves that what we are doing is meaningful handicapping and not playing fun with numbers!
Hi Mark,

The most diplomatic response that I can muster is that everybody handicaps differently. If it works for them and they can make money doing it, it's meaningful.

I don't go hijacking threads criticizing how someone selects their lines or contenders. If matching works for you, great. You won't see me quarreling with what you do. Tim Y. used to fan the flames of dissent quite often with stuff such as this.

The only reason that I even looked at this race was because Partsnut (Bill H) was nice enough to post it, and I wanted to add something to help it along. Otherwise, I wouldn't have bothered. The sloppy track, coupled with it being an off-the-turf affair, made it a tricky race to handicap. You can only use what you have available.

Be well and God Bless you.
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Old 10-12-2018, 03:43 PM   #7
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My 2 cents; "You have to use what you have," A Bradshaw quote. "Doc" Sartin had said at seminars that off tracks and turf lines are interchangeable. I have followed that guidance for years and it has served me well.


I also employ Sartin guidelines of the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Those guidelines don't fit every situation that is encountered and the Bradshaw quote does come into play. If all the horse has is a good Preceptor with a high variant than use that line per Bradshaw or pass the race, an individual choice.

As Jeebs states an individual is free to do and choose to do whatever they wish but I have found that those that stray from Sartin's proven concepts pay the piper rather than make those withdrawals from the racing banks. His concepts have been proven over years and many thousands of races. One must have a damn good reason to go against his proven concepts.


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Old 10-12-2018, 04:34 PM   #8
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Admittedly...

I am a Bradshaw proponent. I started attempting to learn the Match Up going on 6 years ago. I found the Sartin Methodology in the early 90s and it gave form and structure to my handicapping. But I didn't understand why horses won out on the track and while I did well enough to keep my interest and keep coming back for more, I seldom overcame the take out at the end of the year.
There was no greater contrarian than Dr Sartin. His lead changed handicapping for ever. His edict "The cure for losing is winning" did not set well with the Psychological community but to the end of his career, I felt that his mission, whether through guidance, criticism, admonition, yes and even browbeating was to turn losers into winners at the track and in life.
Profitable handicapping today by which I am talking about making serious money, augmenting or supplanting ordinary household income, you cannot do what the crowd is doing.
That is my point! The methodology has been 30 years or so in the Public Domain. For one, limiting yourself to the last 3 comparable lines and the use of final time variants applying them to internal fractions is looking at the handicapping challenge exactly like the majority of the betting public. Secondly, all racing whether human, dog, horse or whatever depends on early pace. I ran track in high school and if you did as well you know this to be true. The faster you go early the less energy and wind you have to finish. It is axiomatic! Early pace is the independent variable in this equation, final time is completely dependent upon it.
I don't ask you to do anything but think about it. Don't take my word. Are you succeeding with your methods? If not do something about it!
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Old 10-12-2018, 06:02 PM   #9
Mitch44
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Your first two paragraphs are well documented. Bradshaw was a HS track coach and ran races in his youth against other Indians which served him well later in his understanding of the match up. Ditto for the "Doc" in his writings.


Bradshaw was also smart enough to know the race doesn't end at the 2nd Call. Many races are won by Pressers, SP and S type horses. In fact these horses are immune to the early pace pressure and run good HE and Late or 3rd Fr. while mowing down the E or EP's gasping for air. Anyone who doesn't consider all running styles or totally disregard OTE horses are going to take a lot of beats.


Yes the methodology has been around 30 years however most can not employ it effectively nor do they understand it. Hell many on this site can't obtain 65 % ( a Sartin standard). Those that I know that can all employ the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. The "Doc's" guidelines.


Far too many, particularity the public are fix sated on the last race. Most fail to understand Sartin guidelines. He does not say the last 3 races, most fail to employ the part that says;"at a comparable distance and surface." I have had this take me back to line 9 even, wherever it takes me is where I go.


I have enjoyed many of trips with this also. One I'll always remember was at the Meadowlands seminar in the early 90's when I used Line 9 in a turf race to get a turf line for a horse. It won and paid huge. Only Lt1 and I had it. We gave it to a guy from England who asked us who we liked, I believe his name was Tim also. He made a bundle on it and to pay for his whole trip. Sartin told us not to tell Jimmy "The Hat" because he gets pissed if someone had a horse he didn't get. He found out but was happy for us and quickly told Howard.


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Old 10-12-2018, 06:57 PM   #10
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Mitch I remember that race well. It was pouring at the Spa and the turf was yielding. The horse we had paid $50 and we had the ex for $500+. Yes we were with Tim Brothers who was making his 1st trip to the States. He did indeed end up paying for his entire trip. You are also correct that Jimmy always cautioned that the race didn't end at the 2nd call and tracks didn't pay the horse in front at that call. The Doc, points out, in his 1 on 1 seminar tapes, the advantage that compounded fractions have over the visual matchup. Jimmy,himself, always urged us to use the latest program since he had programmed the matchup into it. Like you I also learned to use the best of the last 3 comparable dist & etc. surface and have used it with good success since 1990. I know that there are other ways to win with the Methodology but as for me I prefer to go with the Docs' way.
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