Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-16-2016, 01:11 PM   #1
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Factor Definitions / Adjustments Query

I got this Private Message. It seems partly germane to the TPR discussions so I include it here, though there is also a question about the formula for FW, compared to historical formulae.

If the individual wishes to follow up in public, no worries, otherwise privately is fine but I thought others might also benefit from the answer (below).

Quote:
Hi Ted,
I always learned FW to be EP + 3rd FR (Total divided by two= SP + EP. Brohamer's book has that for routes and Average pace for sprints & or Tot. Energy. On your site I've seen for sprints Tot. plus EP and for routes Tot. + 3rd FR. What's the big differences here and what does BL /BL, Primary LS and V/Dc use? Without testing it would seem that for routes (tot.+ 3rd Fr ) would be good for turf races however I'm not so sure about dirt races.

On adjustments for TPR screen do they get track to track and variant adjustments as in the book Pace Makes the Race? Do they get the same adjustments as in other readouts such as on the adjusted screen of horses velocity? Or are they just raw?I've seen some horses that vary greatly from CPR vs. Tot. Energy which creates huge differences in top 5 rankings.
First - to the 2nd question about what adjustments are used in PMTR / TPR calculations: ALL factors, all numbers other than those raw times, running positions and beaten lengths showing on the RDSS Original Screens (and Tandem, Workout, Trip screens) are adjusted by Inter-Track variants, Daily Track variants from TrackMaster (percentages and tolerances controlled by the settings on the Configure Tab), and also by equalization to the distance and surface of today's race. So, on the Tabbed screens to the right of Original screen for the Horse and in the Analysis panel, starting with Adjusted Times and ending with BL/BL - they're all adjusted - nothing is RAW (unless you set it to no adjustments on the Config screen - not recommended - and there are no distance changes to today's distance for pacelines you have chosen).

So, the PMTR/TPR screen numbers (EPR, LPR, TPR, E/L Difference) are adjusted. On the BLBL screen (and Primary screen) , 3 of the 7 Primary Factors are EPR, LPR, TPR (CPR) - thus BLBL and VDC is based on adjusted numbers.

Another of those Primary Factors is Factor W (FW, Factor 'Win' ?). The calculation is: for SPRINTS: (2x EPR + 1x LPR) / 3, for ROUTES: (1x EPR + 2x LPR) / 3. For sprints, EPR is more important, for routes, LPR is more important, hence the relative weighting for each. Thus, when today's distance is a Sprint, lines are projected using the Sprint weighting of FW; when a route, using the route weighting.

Re Turf factors - a model of Turf race factors usually shows strength in those factors emphasizing LPR (F3) but also good F2 and not inferior overall Total Energy or True Speed (average velocity start to finish, aka the Adjusted final-time-based Speed Rating). Thus: Hidden (another of the Primary Factors = F2+F3 average), TSF3 (True Speed+F3) - all show impact in Turf (route) models. However, note that since BL (and thus VDC which is partly influenced by BL) contains FW (route version) and Hid and Fx (all of which contain F3) - BL itself is a 'smoothed' out aggregate rating which turns out to be pretty predictive in BOTH Routes and Sprints: you can use the Top 4 BL (Top 3 VDC) as a pretty good starting point, then mentally nudge your BL tiers by taking into account strength in LPR ranks, late E/L distribution and the other Late factors.

All of the foregoing subject to (and sorted out by, IMO) the prices offered on the tote at the time of wagering (i.e. in a Turf route, the 2nd best Late horse at 5-1 is not necessarily a worse bet - long-term - than the best late horse at 9/5. Maybe hit rate = worse, but ROI = better ...) !


Re rank differences comparing CPR (TPR) to Total Energy (F1+F2+F3 velocity) - a primary difference is that TPR is a 'coarser' measure (as is FW, and the old AP Average Pace) because the 'early' part of the rating (EPR) is an average measurement to the 2nd Call and does NOT take into account performance in the Fraction 1 part of it. EPR represents a 'smoothed' out performance in the first 4 furlongs for sprints and 6 furlongs for routes - if a horse has a high or low F1 (e.g. rank speedball, or troubled start, respectively), then F1 + F2 (as used in Total Energy) will sometimes tell a different tale than simply 2nd call.

FWIW, that's why FX is also one of the 7 Primary Factors, measuring the horse's performance in BOTH F1 and F3.

Hope that clarifies, but feel free to reply here, or privately!

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-16-2016 at 01:16 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 04:12 PM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Ted thanks very much for your reply as it clarifies my questions completely.

Actually today in the TPR forum there was a line for a horse with a -16 track variant. I don't normally fool with TPR but it sure is nice to know the adjustments are there and we can trust the adjustments by TrackMaster.
Additionally for the explanation of FW that has evolved over the years and other information. Your information will enhance the picking of pace lines and best of all winners.
Ever so grateful,
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Track to track adjustments kpmats10 General Discussion 6 07-15-2015 06:03 PM
Adjustments Question Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 3 06-29-2014 03:22 PM
Paceline Selection / Adjusted Speed Rating Query Segwin RDSS2 / FAQ's 18 11-30-2013 08:30 AM
% Early - Run-Up Query DaveEdwards Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 18 05-05-2013 09:16 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:34 AM.