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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-31-2016, 06:48 PM   #31
Mitch44
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I understand your problem Bill. I use to play the same way but now with so many tracks to choose from I also have abandoned the track profile. Too many tracks to keep up with nowadays and as you said not like the old days before simulcasting where we played only one track. I now subscribe to the "Doc's" later teachings where the match-up of the horses in the race account for 80% and only 20% has to do with the track. I go with that 80% putting the percentages on my side.

Don't mistake what I'm saying. I'm not saying that a track profile won't improve your game. It will if your playing only one track and you'll have an edge. Its extremely easy to keep up with one track but not multiple tracks. That 80% is incorporated in the ratings and I trust them.

Because of the proliferation of computers etc. the payoffs have decreased over the years. I don't believe the public is any smarter but those putting out picks are and the public hammers them. On many horses you have to go 70% & 30% now verses the old 60% & 40%. That 70% just makes me uncomfortable so I try to get creative. My first look is for a DD because its easier to pick winners, in fact the further down you go the harder it is to pick a horse. E.g. Who will come in 4th for a SF I would rather create my own DD if none are available with a parlay such as : $5 parley, $3 on 2nd choice & $2 on 3rd choice ( providing their odds are acceptable) Sometimes the public will hammer two horses so these aren't hard and fast rules. Every bet requires judgement. You want more for less and if you can't at least double your outlay( minimum) on the bet you shouldn't make it. So if your bets total $9 for an ex, demand a $18 min. payoff. This way your extension is less and when you win you'll win more. I play ex.'s the same way and look at the payoffs prior to making the bets and cutting my extension money in) on underlays.

Tailor the bet to the situation.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-31-2016 at 06:51 PM.
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Old 03-31-2016, 09:04 PM   #32
MikeB
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Not real track profiles, but some minimal information on a track by track basis is available free at http://www.brisnet.com/

On the home page, at the very top in the center is a green box that says "Handicapper's Edge". Click on that, and then on today's date. On the next page scroll down the left hand column to "At A Glances" and select the track you want from the pop out menu.
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Old 04-03-2016, 10:59 AM   #33
Mitch44
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Things get lost in here but go back and read my post on page # 3 ,post #26 reference yesterdays big race. I won't say; " I told . . . . "

Edited by Bill V ..Here is the a link
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...7&postcount=26

The main point is to heed it and work on your betting plan to take advantage of opportunities that take place everyday. Also you won't get there without keeping records and knowing how strong your top two choices are in order to design a betting plan to capture your know percentages.

A horse pays $ 4.40(Nyquist) and the Ex. pays $50. I just love it.
Mitch44

Last edited by Bill V.; 04-03-2016 at 02:22 PM. Reason: added a link to Mitch's post
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Old 04-03-2016, 02:23 PM   #34
Bill V.
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nice

Thank You Mitch

I added a link to post #26 for you
Bill
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Old 04-04-2016, 12:23 PM   #35
Mark
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Bottom side of exotics

I don't see why the use of accumulative trainer stats can't be a very valuable means of identifying the bottom end of trifectas and superfectas. There usually are only a very few horses entered in any race regardless of class that can't run 4th. Often these are just slow race horses that these minor placings are all that stand between them and the boat to France. One can argue that trainer stats are 90% horse stock and 10% trainer talent but that is an overstatement and simplification. If you play a steady diet of minor league tracks in the south or eastern seaboard you will see how can train a horse. Training any animal is both art and science, but particularly for a sport where the animal is required to move their 1000-1200 lb mass across surfaces of varying hardness on a regular basis. All to often we see the result of desperation or just poor training skill in a disabled animal or premature death.
The goal then of every trainer is to bring their charge to an acceptable level of fitness and condition to allow him to race every 2 to 3 weeks over campaigns of 6 months to a year and not break him down or injure him to a degree that he has to remain in the barn or go to the ranch.
While it is easy to spot the trainers with the best horse flesh, they will not last if they are crappy trainers. Others with more limited stock will pick their spots, care for the animal and nurture him into a feed bill and training fee paying vehicle.
So in this instance, the use of trainer stats is most likely as good an indicator of picking the bottom side of exotics as any. The search though is to determine in your own mind if a trainer is competent. When you see him/her send out a horse does the animal have the necessary foundation of work to make him marginally competitive. How do they run? Do they try? How many furlongs of workouts and races do you normally see his horses have when they are run? Cheap slow horses find their way into 5th, 4th and 3rd just because they are fit.
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Old 04-04-2016, 03:16 PM   #36
Mitch44
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As the saying goes; "no feet, no horse" and I'll add to that by saying no horse, no trainer and or no trainer stat. Many races have capable trainers but in a 12 horse field there are going to be 11 losers. Every day better % trainers and jocks get beat by lesser one's because it about what the horse is capable of doing. The best trainer in the world can't get something out of a horse that just isn't there. No different than buying expensive horses make a winner.(Green Monkey 16 million)

I don't believe 90% horse is an overstatement or a simplification.

It takes a few months of training just to get them into condition to enter a race. There are many reasons cheap horses get up into finishes that are above their pay grade. And one of the biggest is the match-up in the race and form. Mohaymen is a much better horse than the horse that finished 2nd and 3rd in the Fl. Derby. I'll take him over those two always and probably win 9 out of10 of them.

Trainer stats can be useful information in certain situation as all trainers aren't created equal with layoffs, stretch outs and even then their wrong at least 80% of the time.
With horses their record is available and they can be compared against their competition. With trainers their records are not put in context and are extremely deceptive. A trainer can have a 18% record and perhaps all his wins came from one good horse or it was earned in turf sprints and todays conditions are a dirt route. If we had complete data on their records we could make better informed decisions but even than they'll lose 70% or more of the time. Another huge weakness of trainers stat is that their available to everyone now so what edge was there for the most part is gone.

This really hit home to me back in the early 90's at the Sartin seminar at Saratoga. They gave out past performances of a race and blacken out all the unimportant things that players have a hang up with that is meaningless to the race. Stuff like weight, all names jock, trainers owners and even the horses names along with age and sex. The only thing left was actual running lines of the race to include surface ,dis. ........ We worked the race and came up with the winner. A very valuable lesson. A handicapper doesn't need trainer stats to win or to determine who can finish or to determine horses capability and limitations.

Stubborn resistance to change causes more loses than anything. Everyone has their own beliefs and if you believe in weight on, weight off, jockey on or jockey off etc. and its working for you then by all means don't change a thing.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-04-2016 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 04-04-2016, 03:48 PM   #37
Mark
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What are we talking about here?

I was under the impression that the thread was about throwing in additional horses in exotics wagers. The fellow that started this talked about using trainer stats to find an extra horse for his exotics wager. However, you have taken the opportunity to espouse you own personal beliefs and to a certain extent condescend to those who don't necessarily follow your view. It is absolutely apparent that you have strong opinions and do not resist espousing them assertively.
I and most people that contribute to this forum have familiarity with the Sartin Methodology. I attended numerous seminars in the 90s, in Las Vegas and visited with the Doc several times in Beaumont. I bought Thoromation at full price. I've been handicapping for over 50 years. So I am not particularly tolerant of lectures.
The horses that run 5th, 4th or sometimes 3rd usually at exceptional prices and key larger trifecta and superfecta payouts are not win horses or even ITM contenders for the most part. They are horses that make a living running 5th, 4th or 3rd picking up minor checks, paying the feed bill. They are useful animals and when well handled have long careers.
Recognizing when a horseman is competent and puts good foundations into their charges is a learned skill. Today with the various off track training centers and farms, particularly in the South some horses have prepped at the farm or off track. Where horses have not raced for 60 days and are required to have one published workout, they are often horribly slow. But generally the old rule of thumb of 1/2 furlong a day between workouts and races will not steer you wrong. If you are observant and have a decent memory you will know what trainers employ these tactics and include that in your decision making process.
Again the subject of this thread was about training stats and exotics wagering. My remarks were in support of the use of stats or at least local knowledge to find horses that are fit that can fill those lower exotics holes.
If you have success with your methods that is fantastic but it doesn't mean that everyone has to subscribe to them. That's what makes horse races a challenge as everyone involved as the right and privilege to learn and use that knowledge to their own benefit.
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Old 04-04-2016, 04:50 PM   #38
Mitch44
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In his opening thread he asked about jocks, trainers and betting them in exotics slots. etc. my replies have been in keeping with that opening. Obviously you agree with the theory which is great because I said "if its working for you by all means don't change a thing."
Not everyone is going to agree with you and like you we're entitled to our opinion. Your remarks are about in support of and mine are about against such stuff. There always will be differences of opinions. I saw absolutely nothing condescending or lecturing at all about it. People are mature and can subscribe to what ever they want to.

I'm sure if some one out there is a trainer they may feel unimportant and cheap horses are necessary for the game but the horse is 90%.That never was a slight on trainers or horses and it shouldn't be taken as such.
Good luck,
Mitch44
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Old 04-05-2016, 11:19 AM   #39
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I also was at that Sar seminar and remember that little work out like it was yesterday. If I remember correctly it was done to get us away from getting hung up on such non factors and to concentrate more on the pps of the horse. I'm pretty sure that almost everyone here likes to see the horses they like are in the hands of a good trainer and jock. All of us here should be aware that BL/BL is for win only and that other factors come into play when looking for the place and show horses including but not limited to record keeping. As has been stated here almost any horse can and do chug up for 3rd and 4th. I am equally sure that most of us have developed our own style for accomplishing that goal. Looking forward to seeing more exchanges of ideas on the subject
Tim
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