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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 05-07-2014, 09:47 PM   #11
Bill V.
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Don

Quote:
Hey Bill, sorry to take so long to get back to this, been working.
I have been reading and can not find the answer, can you help me out.
thanks
Don
Hi Don

Thanks for taking the time to do the work to learn
I hope this helps you. Please read what Alf wrote

Quote:
Originally Posted by PassRace View Post
Horse F
Early speed horse.
ALF

Alf has it correct


Now we are just using Phase 1 so..
The most important step is to pick your pace lines.
Remember in phase 1 we always rate the last line first but that is another matter. For now lets just go with what I show here.


Step 1. Look at the running styles. Are there any E7 or E8's ?
Yes - Horse F F= fast
Of horses A B C D E, who is a EP ?
Horse D
The other's are pressers. They will only win if the early pressure falls apart.
And they are close enough at the second call.

Step 2 is to calculate the EPR LPR and TPR but we don't need to do any of that or do any of the track to track or daily track variant adjustments. RDSS2 does it all for us so lets just look at the readouts.

Who is your # 1 EPR horse ?
Horse F with a 89.5
This is a sprint race, Actually its 5.5 furlongs
The EP readout is the second call. So horse F will be in the lead at the second call.
Who has the second best EP rating ?
Horse E with a 88.4 .
Each point = 1 length so at the second call horse F still has a 1 length advantage over horse E and even bigger leads over A, B, C, and D.
This is why I told you there is no way horse C could go wire to wire
How is it going to out break horse F ?

Now there are more tools available just on this screen
Horse A has a 5 point advantage over horse F in TPR
but in Phase 1 any horse within 5 points of the top TPR horse is
a contender.

Lets look at the early late difference graph.

All the horses use there energy on the early side
So the only way horse E could over take horse F is if horse
F used too much energy to get the lead at the EP point
(the second call )

Horse F is a lone E-8
Just by what we see on the readouts there was no other early pressure
besides horse E,
Look at how horse E uses its energy almost the same as horse F
11 for F
9 for E
So were will horse E get the energy to over take horse F ?
This is in the advanced concepts chapter in the original Pace Makes The Race.

Lastly although total energy is not part of phase 1 Ted has added it to the TPR screen and its very helpful. Every horse runs about a 166 total energy
total energy is the sum of the 3 fractions so these horses all run pretty much the same way.

I hope this makes it clear This will be much easier for you once you get more practice with Phase 1. But it will all depend on the pace lines you use to rate the horses.
Also it would have been much easier if you knew the distance was 5.5 furlongs and that horse F was in post 1 !!!

Please check out this post from FTL about Early horses on the inside

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9406
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Old 05-11-2014, 08:52 PM   #12
CaptDon100
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Thanks Bill for a very good reply, I just sorry it took so long to get back (been Working), The E/L Diff I want to start recording, Do you record it in your records as E 11 (it is 11.3) and E 9 (it is 8.1) I want to understand the screen
better and add this to my records.
Thanks
Don
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Old 05-12-2014, 10:06 AM   #13
Bill V.
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Does not matter

Hi Don

Your question :

Quote:
The E/L Diff I want to start recording, Do you record it in your records as E 11 (it is 11.3) and E 9 (it is 8.1) I want to understand the screen
better and add this to my records.
Thanks
Don
It really does not matter. I record it as 11.3 and 8.1 in my records.
But If you record it a 11 and 9 ( or 8) over many races it will average out
to the same number. If you consistently round it up or down.

Here is an example . Here are some Total Energy and Med Energy
readouts from my Parx 8 furlong older male model.

The raw numbers are to the left and the rounded up or down numbers are to the right, either way the average is very close

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Old 05-12-2014, 09:08 PM   #14
CaptDon100
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OK I see, that a lot of help, Thanks Bill
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Old 05-20-2014, 11:14 AM   #15
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She's

Hi Don and P-C

Here is Horse F She's Animated.


The race I used for the match up phase 1 race
was from Tampa on April 16

She's Animated ran on opening day at Delaware on Saturday
Here are her pace lines. What happened in that match up race
of horse A B C D E and F was that (F) She's Animated was able to run
a some what easy 89.5 EPR but and because she was loose on the lead see how she was able to run her best LPR 83.5

So now when she ran on Saturday the question becomes will she run
another 89.5 EPR or because she is a early horse will she run in the 90's to get the lead ? Is there another early EPR horse in the race ?
and if so will she drop back down into the 70's for her third fraction ?

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Old 05-20-2014, 04:42 PM   #16
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Bill, hope you don’t mind me jumping in but here are my thoughts: this is tough call, she is a 4 year old and looking at her last 3 of 4 for the year she may be just an improving horse? That last race was a 5 point speed rating bump so even if she’s not pushed I would expect that she will revert back to a 76 to 78 LPR. I would use the 2nd line for pace.
Mike
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Old 05-20-2014, 07:32 PM   #17
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So who

So who went wire to wire this time ?

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results are way below

While we are at it. The conditions of this race are a waiver claimer

Think about that if you can and what that means

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Old 05-20-2014, 09:06 PM   #18
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Well Animated looks like a improving horse after all, ran a good race against a horse with a much higher seep rating. Good line selection! With my pace line she's more than likely not a contender!!

Waiver claimer long layoff, can't be claimed?

Mike
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Old 05-21-2014, 10:48 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mowens33 View Post

Waiver claimer long layoff, can't be claimed?

Mike
Mike

good work Also

The "waiver" horse has to be running back for the same price/class as its' last race OR higher.

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Old 05-21-2014, 11:34 AM   #20
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Bill, Thanks

I enjoyed the She's Animated post!

Mike
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