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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology

 
 
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Old 12-01-2009, 06:18 AM   #1
RichieP
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"Which 2 do I bet? Doc Sartin's wagering guidelines

Here is part of an email "RDSS Support" got last night. It is a problem many have from time to time including ME.
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"I need some help I am on a bad picking run; this has been going on a couple months. I don't have specific question and I have started to re-go over material on your web site.

The problem: I can't pick-um.

The problem isn't picking PL lines. I have my 4-5 contenders and they are usually hit the board. I can't pick the right 2 out of 5. I have been trying to hit woodbine's exactas. I end up with a lot of 3rd and 4th places, 1st (chalk) and 3rd + 4th . I was getting too focused on the top 2 B/L and the 3rd or 4th B/L would win.

So I would not bet the
1 and 2 B/L and one of them would win. I do focus on the EPR & LPR , I'd bet the #1 LPR and it won't win and so I look at all the factors and PP's and talk myself into another horse and the #1 LRP would win. I look at the PP's 2 or 3 horses catch my eye I'll go through RDSS and talk myself into a couple other horses and you guessed it.

And it would work the other way also a couple horses look good in RDSS (a factor or 2 would stand out) and they would end up not hitting the board. If I bet a win-place that horse will show.

It is like I have them surrounded but can't bring it home. I have picked a few good long shots. It sounds like a pace issue. I look at the ESP I just can't put my finger on it. I got myself talking to myself and cant'
pick-um."
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This sure sounds familiar to me as I have lived it man. If it is ok here are 3 of my most important areas of feedback. The following post you will hear from the good doctor Howard Sartin himself.

1) In EVERY one of Howard's Followups dealing with the Validator advanced software he INSISTS we must HIDE for WIN:
a) Horse (s) who's odds are below our individual minimum odds requirements. Doc Sartin's minimum was 5/2.
b) Any other horse (s) who we will not bet for other reasons. Tom Brohamer also agreed with Howard saying that the ONLY horses we should have in our FINAL readouts are horses that we are prepared to BET.

The above guidelines are posted in EVERY one of Howard's Followups dealing with ADVANCED Methodology programs. This alone should be a serious wake up call to those struggling. It was to me for sure.

We are a "contrarian methodology" and this "hiding" is most contrarian concept of all in my opinion yet many cappers stop short of doing just what the creator of the Methodology INSISTS we must do to maximize profits.

2) Avoid focusing on individual corollaries for wagers. This can be disastrous (ask me how I know ok? Bill V can tell you stories of me doing this back when we all were together at the Meadowlands. No good to say the least).
Doc would call it "looking at individual trees instead of the forest or "bigger picture"

3) Make sure if you are a "Wagercapper" that you are playing a track (s) where the favs do not dominate. Howard taught Aline Best to surf the internet and wager/work tracks where this existed because Aline followed his instructions and would HIDE chalks. Betting tracks like Suffolk etc where favs are popping around 40% can quickly destroy your bankroll

One way to search for this today is to go to the Bris "at a glances" tab on the left side of this link:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...ll_edition.cgi
There you can scroll the tracks and find the ones that have the lower % of winning favs. This also shows the average win price odds at each track.


Next post today I will post Doc's wager guidelines.

Finally a screen shot from Followup #83 of an article that EVERYONE looking to "Wagercap" MUST READ.
Attached Images
 
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Old 12-01-2009, 08:58 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Can'ts and Don'ts

Hi Rich



lets review

The problem: I can't pick-um.
how many in a 20 race cycle ? 10/20 11/20 what is his/her average
winner 20 race cycle ??

I can't pick the right 2 out of 5. I have been trying to hit woodbine's exactas.
I end up with a lot of 3rd and 4th places, 1st (chalk) and 3rd + 4th


Then you should not bet exacta till you understand, read the %55 solution
manual and learn how to pick place horses

Then we get into I'm good at looking at this ... but here comes the neagtive
I look at the wrong readouts === Forest not the tree negatives

I'm good cause I get the winner in the top 2 here comes the negative
but then 3-4 wins

it must be a pace thing

The answers are in the follow up
you give excellent advice
The writer needs to ask himself/herself
Do I truely want to win ?
or do i want to play the game of the losing horse
player.

We all hve been there I can't say it enough listen to what you say
I am good but ...
Im bad at this bit I'm good too.. these are all problem within yourself

Again I am not trying to preach Docs work
I am just saying we all struggle but the answers are there

Last edited by Bill V.; 12-01-2009 at 07:13 PM.
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Old 12-01-2009, 10:57 AM   #3
RichieP
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The following are screen shots from Followup #79.
These are Doc's wagering guidelines.

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Last edited by Ted Craven; 12-01-2009 at 11:16 AM.
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Old 12-01-2009, 11:02 AM   #4
RichieP
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Now please feel free to post questions, feedback, comments etc etc

ALL positive feedback is most welcome.
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Old 12-01-2009, 06:23 PM   #5
seattlesnake
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Sounds Like Record Keeping Issue

Let us see where the problem lies ..if he usually has his top5 contenders and has them surrounded most of the time.... He should be able to see based on his record...his win % for each tier.....and bet accordingly...

I've provide my record on the left from last week as an example and this also can be applied for the exotics.... have him fill it in...and im sure he will see where his problem lies... and if he cant ... have him post it for analysis....

Attachment 18308

I know the feeling of ziggin when they r zagging and i end up getting smoked.... but it usually evens out in the end...if you have a barometer to base your losing/winning streaks on.

hope this helps...

Jess

Last edited by seattlesnake; 08-06-2010 at 11:42 AM.
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Old 12-02-2009, 01:17 PM   #6
BJennet
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Excellent records

Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlesnake View Post
Let us see where the problem lies ..if he usually has his top5 contenders and has them surrounded most of the time.... He should be able to see based on his record...his win % for each tier.....and bet accordingly...

I've provide my record on the left from last week as an example and this also can be applied for the exotics.... have him fill it in...and im sure he will see where his problem lies... and if he cant ... have him post it for analysis....

Attachment 18308

I know the feeling of ziggin when they r zagging and i end up getting smoked.... but it usually evens out in the end...if you have a barometer to base your losing/winning streaks on.

hope this helps...

Jess
Jess,

Thanks for posting these excellent records. A couple of questions come to mind, but I understand, if you would rather not respond. It appears that your average hit rate for this period was about .22 for one horse, and double that for two, with average odds of about 5-1. I would also guess that given the relatively high average odds combined with high volume play, you were handicapping something on the order of 10-12 tracks a day. Is any of this true? Also, is your performance for this week representative of your longer-term play - say 1,500 or so races? Regardless of whether or not you can answer, congrats on an excellent performance.

Side note to Richie P., if he reads this: you might notice how close this ROI is too your own high-volume autopaceline performance. This is how you would have done with the bank of the typical pro poker or blackjack player - except that the BJ player would have needed 4X the handle to get .25 of this ROI.

Cheers,

BJennet
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Old 12-02-2009, 06:10 PM   #7
RichieP
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Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet View Post
Side note to Richie P., if he reads this:
Cheers,
BJennet
Hey "B"
Just want you to know I definitely read every one of your posts as there is MUCH knowledge to be learned.

This board grows stronger by the week and with guys like you, Snake, Bill L, Mikesal, Bill V, Ernie etc posting we are all the beneficiaries.

I will tell everyone something right now and my hand to Goodness it is truth:

If Ted or myself can get Barb C to post more often we would all be witness to someone who BREAKS HER ASS working races in EARNEST, is now betting real money and has that "womans intuition" in addition to her learned book smarts.

Her contender selection is far superior to mine and it makes me happy because she LOVES doing races. There is an excitement watching/listening to her work thru races BEFORE they run.

Far as another thread here in this forum goes I see Barb's:
1) Hard work
2) Focused determination to excel
3) JOY in working races

and realize that we are all like snowflakes, applying/not applying ourselves to give the best chance to succeed with RDSS.

Barb C gives 110% and that's aces in my book.

Barb C to ME is the "Aline Best" if you will of this decade. Dedicated, hard working, enjoys racing and has been taught the fundamentals by 3 of the best:
Doc/Aline - from the Followups
Ted
Bill V

I'm just enjoying the ride with my friend

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9H9T...ture=quicklist
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Old 12-02-2009, 06:58 PM   #8
noddub62
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Right on

Richie,

That post brought to mind that in my career in working with women engineers and draftspersons that they generally far more focused and able to follow directions than us guys are. We need to send our wifes and girl friends to Barb for training!
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Old 12-02-2009, 07:46 PM   #9
Bill V.
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Doc

Barb is my idol I can't wait to have the time
to follow her work ethic

Doc encouraged women as Sartin Methodologie clients
saying women generally have better Intuition skills than men

Intuition (philosophy), the act by which the mind perceives the agreement or disagreement of two ideas
Intuition (knowledge), understanding without apparent effort
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Old 12-03-2009, 11:30 AM   #10
BJennet
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Congrats

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
Hey "B"
Just want you to know I definitely read every one of your posts as there is MUCH knowledge to be learned.

This board grows stronger by the week and with guys like you, Snake, Bill L, Mikesal, Bill V, Ernie etc posting we are all the beneficiaries.

I will tell everyone something right now and my hand to Goodness it is truth:

If Ted or myself can get Barb C to post more often we would all be witness to someone who BREAKS HER ASS working races in EARNEST, is now betting real money and has that "womans intuition" in addition to her learned book smarts.

Her contender selection is far superior to mine and it makes me happy because she LOVES doing races. There is an excitement watching/listening to her work thru races BEFORE they run.

Far as another thread here in this forum goes I see Barb's:
1) Hard work
2) Focused determination to excel
3) JOY in working races

and realize that we are all like snowflakes, applying/not applying ourselves to give the best chance to succeed with RDSS.

Barb C gives 110% and that's aces in my book.

Barb C to ME is the "Aline Best" if you will of this decade. Dedicated, hard working, enjoys racing and has been taught the fundamentals by 3 of the best:
Doc/Aline - from the Followups
Ted
Bill V

I'm just enjoying the ride with my friend

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9H9T...ture=quicklist
Hi Richie,

Very happy to hear Barb is doing so well. As you say, she has great teachers.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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