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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 03-27-2017, 08:14 PM   #11
mick
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Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
HI Tim. I've been a member of the Methodology since 1990 and still confine my play to one track per day so don't worry if that's what you end up doing. I have found by restricting play to races for 3 & up on the dirt I do very well. I will play some mdns and turf but only those with no more than 1 unknown factor. Parx, MVR, TDN FL and OP card most of the races I play. I also look at Tampa when weather in the East is iffy. I keep both a model and profile for the tracks I play which prove very helpful. You make a good point in that you must decide whether to use BL/BL or RX. Record keeping will make that decision for you. Based on what I've seen in your post and videos it appears your on solid ground. Take your time you will get there.
Tim G
Jeebs,
While Tim G (aka Lt1) is a more experienced Sartin Methodology person than yours truly, we do share some preferences and activities and I would commend them to you.

Firstly, don't try to play too many tracks. Two is about all I can cope with. You're a younger man and perhaps you can handle more than that and stay focused, but I can't. Secondly, I play almost exclusively 3UP claimers on dirt because I think those races are the more predictable in an unpredictable sport. I watch and enjoy them all, turf races, maiden, maiden claiming, stakes, whatever, but I seldom bet those others. Because of that, Tim and I play many of the same tracks. Thirdly, I also keep records. (I believe I've posted my WDF form, but I'm also building a spreadsheet of races using Ted's MasterTemplate and RDSS's export function with extra information manually entered.) And lastly, don't get discouraged. It's a two-step forward, one-step back (hopefully) progression.

BTW I enjoy reading your race work ups. Frankly, you're more thorough than I am. I'm "pattern" oriented while you're doing the deep dive into running lines which is what some of the best players on this board do.
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Old 03-28-2017, 04:04 PM   #12
lostandwon
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Join Date: Sep 2015
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Hi Jeebs, wanna throw a couple thoughts out at you.

Regardless of your outcome…you got a lot of action off your initial $20. That’s important I think. You’re willingness to bet the majority of your buy-in on the first race makes me think you’re not really risk-averse. Fortunately it hit! Great! as there is inherent risk to this endeavor. Gotta break some eggs to make an omelet. Gotta stand in there and take your cuts. Whatever verbiage you like. I also look at it as if I golfed I’d have to pay for the clubs, stylish clothes, green fees, etc. All we need is a $2 download and an old computer. Or, pencil and paper.

I’m with you as far as family and a job. Granted, I’m self-employed and have a very flexible work schedule, but I gotta work sometime nonetheless.

With that said, may I recommend hitting some night racing. Try a few out and you may find a couple tracks you just “take to” for whatever the reason. TP (mercifully nearly over) and MNR haven’t worked out for me. Maybe they do/will for you. Never really wanted to play the tiny tracks (DD, CT). I used to play TP a lot 20-25 years ago (prior to family) with success. However, now it appears most of the races are CL5 and there’s nowhere to go up or down in the class structure. Never played MNR before last year but appears to be a lot of CL5 races. Believe me, I don’t mind cheap races, I just want some variation in the class structure. Sorry, I digress. I say all that to get to EVD and PID will start up in April and May respectively. IND has afternoon post through the week but 6:05 post on Saturdays. WO races at night on Wednesday. You will avoid having to play during work. Perhaps cap the races the evening before and play them the following evening.

Lastly, it appears as though you played day after day after day. While you didn’t bet every race you were still looking at them. Thinking about them. I find I do better when I play less (relative term). That’s a challenge as I a) like action and b) like the process of looking at races and attempting to predict the future. But I think for most (certainly there are some on P&C that this is simply not true) there comes a point of diminishing returns. Maybe make something of a schedule of when you play. Regardless of when, structure your play so that you are rested and can see the vulnerable favorites with the big overlays (bet hard), see when you’re not going to beat the chalk (bet it or pass), or see when you really have no idea what’s gonna happen.

Anyway, good luck and thanks for sharing your experience.
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Old 03-28-2017, 07:28 PM   #13
MJS6916
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I appreciate both the honesty and encouragement. I will head back to the drawing board and this time, keep a more careful inventory of my play.

One thing I left out was my use and sometimes abuse of tandems. They are for sure, a major factor in my play. However, the power of the tandem is when you can "reverse" a previous winner or finisher who is getting bet to death while the finisher or finishers up close behind it are getting underbet. I cashed some nice tickets reversing but also lost some bets reversing horses who are good odds. Something for me to note when I start a new cycle.
Jeebs,

seems to me you're going to do well.
keep hammering away.

Mike
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:59 PM   #14
Fairchild
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Join Date: Apr 2015
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Interesting post. One thing that works for me is to set a "win stop". I generally find 5 races on a card that I see as playable running them through RDSS, although I may not play them all depending on the odds at post time. What I have found happening to me is that I will win the first two or three races at good odds and be ahead. In the late races,which are more form-full, I lose the money back trying to beat the favorite. So I set a dollar amount for a win percentage and change the way I bet if I reach it. I may still play the races but I look harder at the place and show spots and then only bet them when I see a high odds horse that has some corollaries.
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