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RDSS 2.1 Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version!

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Old 04-13-2016, 03:46 PM   #1
Ted Craven
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Aqueduct 2016 using RDSS2.1 and 'Rx'

Rx is a new Analysis Screen in RDSS 2.1 and a Line Score and Odds Line composed of other Line Scores and composite factors, some non-correlated to Pace/Speed/Energy to give a comprehensive view of True Contenders. It is an alternative to BL/BL. Like BL/BL it comprises a weighting of other factors, in this case: VDC, CSR, CR+ (the new improved Class Factor) an optional outside factor (aka a 'Power Number', initially - and optionally - TwinSpires' ProfitLine rating) and a composite Early/Late measurement. There is also a version of Rx (provisionally known as Rx1), which excludes ProfitLine - which frankly, is not much worse at all. Please refer to a collection of stats on these factors compiled by Bill Lyster >> HERE. (thanks Bill! )

Since I had been paying attention to Aqueduct both Inner and Main Tracks over the Winter and Spring thus far of 2016 (keeping tabs on the Pick 4 Contest), I decided to create a Wager Decision Form spreadsheet using the Rx Factor (in the style as originally provided by Doc Sartin to measure mutuels, hit rate and profit by BL rank). I wanted to see what Rx and no other handicapping, and automated paceline selection (BLT/C, default Configuration settings) would produce. For those of you who have been playing along - Aqueduct has been pretty chalky, with frequent bouts of short fields, punctuated by occasional dramatic longshots and a survival diet of $7.00 - $9.00 horses here and there. I was also in the midst of programming the Decision Modeler to produce an automated Wager Decision Form as one of its initial collection of reports, so this was a good test to mockup first in Excel.

Here is my Aqueduct 'Rx' Wager Decision Form Excel Spreadsheet. I will update it regularly (though not between April 15 and April 30, while I'm away). Main Track meet is complete through April 13. Inner Track meet includes the last 88 races.
HERE >> Rx Aqueduct 2016 Wager Decision Form.xlsx <<
Inner Track - Win ROI: 7% Exacta ROI 4%
Main Track - Win ROI: 29% Exacta ROI 14%
Both Main and Inner Track Rx=4 (rank 4) is also flat-bet profitable for Win.
The good news is - with no other handicapping, playing every race (except for a few massive FTS races) regardless of field size or odds (which one should not do) - it shows a flat-bet Win profit for the Rx=1 ranked horse (with some losing days). And a flat bet Exacta profit betting Rx rank 1 over Rx ranks 234 (again with some losing days). Again, no handicapping, betting ALL races - 'don't try this at home folks', etc. I expect that the ROI on bets in each pool would be higher by being more selective.

My goal in this experiment was initially to see how useful this new Rx Line Score factor was in getting Contenders within the Top 4 - NOT to find a way to bet 1 horse per race. Though, as shown by the collection of chalky mutuels - 1 horse is sometimes all you can afford to bet, and all you need to bet. In practice, there are many more ways to capitalize on getting a high percentage of Win and Place (and often Show) horses in the Top 4. Plus, horses which have been demoted from Primary Contention can easily be Place and ITM horses by means of other handicapping (opposite energy / Matchup bias, strong PoR numbers, tote board confirmation, etc). And thus I would expect many more Exacta hits than were included in the strict confines of the Exacta portion of this WDF.

So far, not bad. I did not compare the same set of races to BL/BL or VDC - they may also have produced the same flat-bet profit. Sometimes the BL ranks and Rx ranks differ, sometimes they agree. I am posting below some of Aqueduct's races from today as illustrations of the layout of the new Rx screen.

Enjoy.

Ted
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Old 04-13-2016, 04:02 PM   #2
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Aqueduct April 13, 2016 - Rx Screen

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Old 04-13-2016, 04:21 PM   #3
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continued ...

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OK, the Result for Race 8 was 1A -4 - 1 and the 1A paid $8.00 not the #1 (bugs confusing the Result fetcher, right now). But still in the ball-park for the Win with the Entry, and the Tote clarified the #4 for a $21.50 $1 Exacta
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Old 06-14-2016, 04:20 AM   #4
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Ted, about Rx: Did you withdraw it or are we able to download an RDSS version incorporating it?
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Old 06-14-2016, 12:53 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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Rx is still a part of RDSS 2.1 (another aggregate Line Score), but that version is not yet released and I withdrew my delivery schedule for it for the indeterminate future, see --> here. I think it is an important addition to the work, to help qualify real contenders, and I am continuing to research it and gather more statistics on what role it may play.

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Old 11-03-2016, 04:21 PM   #6
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Ted:
Just got around to analyzing this. I noted that when the top RX horse did not win, that either the #1 EPR or #1 LPR was the winner of the race. I did not check the AQU race model, but this result may well support it. Anyway, something to consider
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Old 06-27-2017, 08:51 PM   #7
ignacio todoberto bernal
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hi Ted first of all i wish you well and your family also......
i don't know if this is the rite site but here we go! i will like to try,work on it and learn in the new version of rdss (rdss beta 2.6-02or is it beta 2.03xxxxxxxxx or whatever the rightname is,to put it simple your latest beta program.
please let me know when you have the time to answer this message.

your's truly Ignacio
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