Day 18 DMR Feature Race Race 7 The Solona Beach

[Bill Lyster]

It does not always (???) happen like this, but sometimes you have to pay attention to the weight of the numbers. I entered all the horses races with an adjusted speed rating of 80 or better. (In cheaper races you might use a 75 SR) Here are some screens that show the results.







A couple of years ago I was handicapping a cheap turf race at Turf Paradise. When I first did it I could not believe what I was seeing. The horse with the only negative E/L was ML 15/1 or worse. So I entered every line in the PPs and ALL of them were the top BL/BL score. All of the other horses had +E/L (too early). The horse went off at 48/1 and cruised by everyone in the stretch. This was a more dynamic outcome than today's BL/BL screen, but look at the distribution and rating of the 1 and 2 for this race. Hard to look elsewhere with this info.

Another interesting note in this situation was that the owners of the top three EPR and LPR completed the low paying trifecta last night.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Pook:

Glad your improving your game. These are very tough races indeed. I normally wouldn't play these races because so many have numerous unknown factors and tend to be more unpredictable.

I love the mental challenge of them through and their good practice for connecting races such as P3 etc. Anybody playing these races will have a lower percentage but they will sharpen ones skills. I do lessen my bets to compensate for their unpredictably. There are good lessons in these races and should build your confidence in other races.

A key factor to the learning process is by doing, there's actually no substitute for it. Try learning how to ride a bike or drive a car without actually doing it. The road we travel is what gets us there.

Mitch44

Mitch:
Another reason that these are good races to handicap is that we need to recognize when favorites or one or only two horses can win. There are so many low priced winners these days that if you play any horizontal bets, it helps to limit your exposure, and hopefully increase the ROI.

[Mitch44]

Your correct Bill. I look for those type races when I play a P4,P5 or P6 as a key race and to limit my extension. It selfdom's pays to choose a single as a key. Even the # 2 in this race had some ? with the 8 month layoff as it was suspicious. I'm a firm believer in Doc's two horse bets if your win betting.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Even more valuable is learning what races to pass which to me is crucial to ones bottom line.
Tim

[Bill V.]

I am very happy these races are helping our group,
They are helping me, I mostly play doubles and pick 3's and Pick 4's at
Del Mar

With my schedule, I no longer desire sitting in front of a computer and handicapping single races looking for overlay winners, which means passing many races ,

These race I have been posting, the feature race at DMR, have sharpened my skill in many different types of races.

I can get the winners but I am learning from you guys how to bet
The last few days have been chalky but they have been positive learning races too.

Good Skill and THANK YOU for joining me on these races
Bill

Day 18 Friday Chart