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Old 08-11-2017, 03:49 PM   #1
Jeebs
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Homegrown software?

Periodically, I enjoy dabbling with Microsoft Excel. One of the first Excel projects that I did was in conjunction with Ray Baker (Raybo over at PaceAdvantage). It took a lot of practice (and assistance from the techies on the MrExcel forum!) But I was able to create a spreadsheet that automated the steps taken in Brohamer's MPH book. Eventually, other spreadsheets such as a Chart Converter and a Quirin Figure Maker were born. When Raybo moved onto AllData, so did I, incorporating many of my own creations into the sheet, or removing some of his stuff to fit what I wanted.

Eventually, I gravitated towards the DOS version of MPH, which eventually led me to RDSS in 2013, which I have subscribed to on and off. Since my play is more or less part time now, I found that it made little sense for me to dive into a subscription. However, I wanted to try and replicate the RDSS format as much as I possibly could.

Enter Excel.

With my new Excel sheet, I type in the Race distance/surface horses Brisnet E1, E2 and FT figure. I use Brisnet because you can find PPs online for free on certain websites or get a credit when wagering off Twinspires. Inputting the figs spits a hypothetical time equivalent for that horse's race. It then crunches velocities, PMTR, basic Sartin formulas and (admittedly) my best guess of formulas not in the public domain based on "reading between the lines" of Follow-Ups and P&C posts. I even replicated the perceptor and BL/BL. It's not close to the power and technology of RDSS, but it comes close enough for me where it is effective for my own private use.

Has anyone else undertaken homegrown programs over the years? How did you find the experience? It fascinates me because of the work and detail involved. It isn't something that can be simply done In one day. You learn from experience. In the end, I get satisfaction for having put in the sweat equity to build something that is for my own use.
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Old 08-11-2017, 04:57 PM   #2
gandalf380
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Homegrown software.

When Brohamers book came out, I was working as a pc cobol programmer. I Wrote a program to replicate the formulas in the book. At first it was data entry and then I tied it into a data download using BRIS, if I remember correctly. I then got involved with early Sartin Programs and became a believer when I won 7 races in a row which was unheard for me back then.
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Old 08-11-2017, 05:05 PM   #3
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gandalf380 View Post
When Brohamers book came out, I was working as a pc cobol programmer. I Wrote a program to replicate the formulas in the book. At first it was data entry and then I tied it into a data download using BRIS, if I remember correctly. I then got involved with early Sartin Programs and became a believer when I won 7 races in a row which was unheard for me back then.
Charlie,

First Sartin type program I used was Colt Cannon Race Prophet, then Bob Pitlak's Sartin Pro. Only crunched raw numbers. That got the ball running.
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Old 08-12-2017, 07:58 AM   #4
Mitch44
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Interesting stuff which takes a lot of brains. Have you ever tried EQU SIM I believe that's the name of it. Its a self programing program. Too much for my little brain.

I can see where a data base could provide some interesting stuff. Some just have a knack for computer programing but for most a difficult endeavor. Nothing beats the computer in your own brain, which is obtained through thousands of hours of handicapping.
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Old 08-12-2017, 08:27 AM   #5
Jeebs
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Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Interesting stuff which takes a lot of brains. Have you ever tried EQU SIM I believe that's the name of it. Its a self programing program. Too much for my little brain.

I can see where a data base could provide some interesting stuff. Some just have a knack for computer programing but for most a difficult endeavor. Nothing beats the computer in your own brain, which is obtained through thousands of hours of handicapping.
Mitch44
I've heard of it, but it seems too busy. As far as other computer programming, I'm a dolt lol. Excel is basic enough for me to use.
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Old 08-12-2017, 08:25 PM   #6
Fairchild
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I have created my own spreadsheet in an attempt to replicate Sartin's methodology and have had only a small success for the time involved.

Creating the spreadsheet was fun and interesting, but I found using it cumbersome and more time consuming then using RDSS.
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Old 08-13-2017, 12:43 PM   #7
mowens33
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This is something I did a while back.
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx RDSS2 Model Spread Sheet-Brohamer Model.xlsx (46.7 KB, 55 views)
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Old 08-14-2017, 10:09 PM   #8
Dorianmode
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Hi,
As Ted knows, I've developed a set of Excel programs which started out a few years ago as 'profiles', to which I added my own version of something like (but different ... and which I worked out myself) NewPace. There were a lot of things wrong with the early versions, and I recently discovered a MUCH easier way to do the same thing. I now use them together. Without RDSS, (on which they are totally based), they would not work. I download the runners to the profiles, for comparisons. I have been very pleased with the results. Ted and I have talked about all this, and will again soon, I understand, about offering my version of NewPace, (which I need to rename, as a statistical calculation, as it's based on the TrackMaster speed figures, which we already have in RDSS), and my computations are different. In the last couple years I added some regression analysis, (and automated it, as there is no way to mess with that while preparing a race), to tell me what was the best way to weight the readouts which come from comparing today's runners to my profiles. Then also I added a multiple regression analysis. The two regression numbers are now my most powerful predictors of the winner. Of course one must still do basic handicapping, and make basic judgments about contenders, class droppers, and which speed figures to omit or average, etc, etc. It's not a black box. I don't have enough organized data to present it to these fora yet, but will when I have enough. Most recently I worked out also a calculation (also automated in Excel) based on a few things, which rate the advantage of my top two contenders, over the next three. That is showing some great promise, but also needs more work, and surprisingly it's pointed me to look a three-way dutch, if the numbers for two are not optimum, which I had not thought about, until it happened. If all this sounds impossibly complicated, ... it isn't. I can prepare a race in about 5-7 minutes, as all the steps in Excel are macro driven (automated). I just push he command buttons, (which I programmed), and boom, boom, boom, the numbers pop out.

I like Mike's sheet ... mine are a lot more "busy" and have a lot of calculations.

One of the most fun successes with this all was on Saturday ... I'm still chuckling about it. DelMar race 6, 8/12/17. It had the winner, the place horse, the show horse and the 4th place runner... all in precise order. LOL. It's good, but it's not THAT good. I do have separate profiles for the place, show and perfecta horse, that come out of the numbers at the same time the win numbers are generated. It's probably mathematical heresy, but I recently cleaned out my profiles. I was thinking that many races and many numbers just "blur" the picture, and hides the significant among the noise. I now use only seven races (which are frequently updated) in the profiles. If the race turns out as well as the one above, I replace one in the profile with that one.
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Old 08-15-2017, 09:41 AM   #9
Jeebs
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Interesting stuff. I have a few bugs of my own to work out. Not sure if it will require VBA or not, but hopeful that I will have my issues rectified sooner rather than later.
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