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Old 03-12-2015, 01:22 PM   #1
Seven Furlongs
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Aqueduct, Thursday 12th of March

Just some random thoughts on some races from today's Aqueduct card.

2nd race, 20k claimer at 6f.

Quite a bit of cheap early speed in this race, so I don't think it will be won in wire to wire fashion, unless I've missed something. So, to look at the OTE horses, I've grouped them as follows:

4 & 8, are ep horses, 3 & 6 are pressers. By the past races run the pressers look like they are the better horses, and the cheap early speed may take something out of the early pressers, so it may set up for a presser to win it. Of the best class horses, the pressers find themselves with the most room/space to run.

Between the 3 & 6 the 3 looks slightly better, though the 6 is dropping in class and coming 3rd off a layoff. Levine is putting Blinkers on the 6, but I think it may be an act of just trying something as the horse hasn't shown much of anything since the layoff.

I'm lukewarm about the race, as I don't know if it will go ep or p.
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Old 03-12-2015, 01:39 PM   #2
Seven Furlongs
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6th race, 6fd alw57kn1x

Some scratches change the dynamics of this race a bit. Before there was a nice division of early/early pressers and pressers and closers. Now, there are less horses in the early/early presser half, so it may just go that way.

After scratches there are 4 early horses left, but, I think the 4 horse outclasses the others. It has had a bit of a rest and its last workout is really good, plus the horse picks up Irad Ortiz - I'm not sure if this is the brother that likes front runners or not. If it goes early, this is the horse.

If OTE, than the 12 or the 8 are the best horses I think. Lind Rice is putting Blinkers on the 8 and Jose Ortiz gets the mount, but the 12 might be the better horse. One discouraging thing about both horses is that neither show a single workout since the last race, which means that they have just been galloped. For me, not an encouraging sign, but, since these allowance horses don't look exactly like world beaters maybe they need the rest more than the exercise.
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Old 03-12-2015, 01:54 PM   #3
Seven Furlongs
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The 2 horse won the second race, it was the best of the early speed, won quite easily. It was 1st off the claim and Toscano put bug Angel Cruz on the horse to get a weight allowance.
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Old 03-12-2015, 02:22 PM   #4
Seven Furlongs
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7th race, Non graded stak.....its a 10 k claimer at 6f.

4, 7, 10 and 12 are scratched.

Before I thought it would go to a presser or closer, but with scratches I think it will go to an early or early presser.

Of the Early horses, the 8 and the 11 are the most interesting. The 11 is second off of a layoff and has no form.

The 8 is a David Jacobson special, in that it is dropping in class, is 1st off a layoff, and shows negligible form in a solitary workout. Granted Jacobson doesn't seem to push his horses in the mornings as a series of bullet works and David Jacobson are two ideas that don't co-exist, so any workout by a Jacobson horses merely demonstrates that the horse is still considered among the living and most likely in form.

Maybe like the 2nd race and Toscano, Jacobson has given bug Angel Cruz the mount to get the most weight off. There is no value in betting the 8 horse at 2-1 and since the early presser horse, the 3, is mediocre, I don't see the 8 being severely compromised.

If it goes OTE, than the 6 or the 1/1a entry look most likely to win, but since the 11 horse is off form, I think the 8 will most likely wire.
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Old 03-12-2015, 02:43 PM   #5
Seven Furlongs
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8th race, yet another 6f race, this time an optional claimer.

The 6 horse is scratched, reducing the 7 horse field to 6.

There is not a lot of early speed in this race, and the lone early the 7 ( I have the 5 as an early presser) is a very good horse. I projected a 1st call of 22 4/5 and a final time of 1:11. The only horses that can respond favourably to that pace are the 1, the 3, and the 5.

The 7 is dropping in class, is in its 3rd race off the layoff and has the best dirt speed among today's starters. Because there is no other singularly early horse that can send it to ruin, it can run a relaxed race and still have enough in the tank to beat the 5, so in sum, the 7 looks most likely to win.

The value horse in the race may just be the 3 horse. It has run two decent races in routes, so the horse is fit. It has won 2 out of 4 races at 6 furlongs, is switching jockeys from Franco to Irad Ortiz , and has conditioning under its belt having run over 11 furlongs in the last 30 days. It will be tough to beat the 7, but, stranger things have happened.
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Old 03-12-2015, 04:32 PM   #6
Seven Furlongs
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6th race went OTE and the 8 won. 7th race went early as the 8 won. Both races had little value.
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Old 03-12-2015, 05:04 PM   #7
Seven Furlongs
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The 2 horse won the 8th race, didn't have it considered for some reason as it was in the top 3 contenders when you consider class.
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Old 03-12-2015, 07:49 PM   #8
The Pook
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Hi Andre,

I played a few of the races above at Aqueduct but I could find no value. Early speed and class winning meant the public had the measure of everything today. Basically got chalked out with only one $6 winner.

Pook
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