Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-06-2017, 11:25 AM   #1
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Practice Race for fun - OP 6th - 4/6/17

This looks like a fun race to practice with on a rainy day. I have to be at work while this is going on, so I don't anticipate putting any money. However, I felt that the paceline practice would be beneficial.

Here are the race conditions:

Name:  conditions.JPG
Views: 407
Size:  64.0 KB
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 11:28 AM   #2
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Past Performances 1-3

#1
Name:  1.JPG
Views: 374
Size:  251.0 KB

#2
Name:  2.JPG
Views: 364
Size:  246.1 KB

#3
Name:  3.JPG
Views: 396
Size:  246.0 KB
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 11:29 AM   #3
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Past Performances 4-6

#4
Name:  4.JPG
Views: 378
Size:  245.2 KB

#5
Name:  5.JPG
Views: 396
Size:  240.9 KB

#6
Name:  6.JPG
Views: 375
Size:  262.8 KB
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 11:30 AM   #4
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Past Performances 7-8

#7
Name:  7.JPG
Views: 403
Size:  271.3 KB

#8
Name:  8.JPG
Views: 393
Size:  236.5 KB
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 11:43 AM   #5
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Now go handicap!

You now have the conditions and the past performances at your disposal. I want to see the multiple directions members take in their paceline/contender selections.

I had a member message me last night stating that they "have not learned more about line selection since joining here and lurking and seeking a way." Perhaps I took this individual's message out of context, but I feel that if we are going to post races/selections/etc, the least we can do is explain WHY we selected a line. Ultimately, "the way" this individual is talking about is all an individual process. It is kind of like the "image" portrayed at a poker table. Some people are loose in their selection criteria so that they can extract value from pacelines that the general public's $$$ usually misses because they are typically "recency oriented", while others employ a "tight" image, which means they are strictly focused on the Doc's fundamentals or a strict set of guidelines and axioms based on past experiences or research mining. It's about comfort level as well as success, both of which are measurable by keeping records.
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 11:48 AM   #6
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Race distance and race class

**^

Name:  6furlongs RC100.JPG
Views: 372
Size:  25.9 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 11:54 AM   #7
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Missed the distance. The detailed class was there.
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 12:29 PM   #8
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
OP race 6

Good idea Jeebs

without a selection
Here are my race notes and pacelines

Good Skill
Bill

OP race 6 CL 25 N1-3M 4 +

Step 1 ALAWYS !
Top 5 TPR line 1. 4, 1, 7, 6, 8
Fulcrum POR EPR
(pace of race- Early Pace Rating )
Horse 4 EPR 89.7 + 3.3 = 91 POR
Has horse 4 run 1 or more + races against
a 91 POR ? answer YES
line 1 ,3 and 5 The 4 is my fulcrum POR
with a 91

Horses notes
1 Golden Moon. EARLY Line 1 is a (+) it is the last race of that form cycle . Line 2 is a = pace
line against today's expected POR a w/w win
line 2 is my line Its a recent + race.

2. My Brother Dan . Early , Form issues The last
2 lines are beaten 26 lengths It can certainly handle a 91 POR when in form but
today that is unknown ? I will rate off line 3

3. Morning Buzz EP Router Today starts a new form cycle, Its adjusted EPRs put it slower than today's POR can it win off a layoff ? and sprinting ? It shows 2 other 60 + day layoffs
with no wins and no shown wins sprinting. No line

4. Mr. Right Sus. Today starts a new form cycle
Moves up after a 2nd place effort in line 1
Its my fulcrum horse Line 1

5. Rod Mcleod Early back from a 4 week rest
today starts anew form cycle after being claimed last time. No choice but to rate off line 4
but the slow 87.5 EPR for a early horse is a red flag

6. Cash Bonus Presser another layoff horse
Line 1 is (+) It also qualify s as a top 5 TPR
from line 1 of all the horses which is a positive
Ships in from FG so how will it run at OP ?
I will rate off line 1

7. Alabama Tide Presser another layoff horse
This one also is a top 5 TPR line 1 horse
Today starts a new form cycle It has run + races after layoffs Line 2 from LRC is q quirky track but the 179 TPR is supported by lines
7 and 10 line 2

Horse 8 Charlesbreckenridge Recent form is bad. TPR is top 5 but this one is going the wrong way. Nothing about its EPR POR suggest it will be able to keep up
Attached Images
  
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 01:06 PM   #9
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
OP Race 6

The first thing I see in looking over the PP's is that there are 3 E horses. Now if you have read the hat file with Jimmy and Richie you know when they saw this out they went, unless there was a speed of a speed horse and in this race, there is not. Both the 1 and 5 are capable of running first quarters in the 21 and change range, so to me, there is no speed of the speed IMO. My 2 horses will be the 4 and 7 who can both run off a 45 and change.

By the way in the first race at Aqueduct today there is a Hat spot play see if you can find it and report back.


Bob
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2017, 01:55 PM   #10
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
My take

The first thing I did, sort of like Bill, was establish the Pace of Race, but using Total Energy (TE) to do so. I examined the last line of each horse, the objective being to answer these three questions:

1) Who ran against the fastest PoR in its last line?
2) Were they competitive against that PoR?
3) If the horse was competitive, do other races support it?

That horse in this case, as Bill concluded via the Pizzolla fulcrum method, would be #4, Mr. Right. In Line 1, it ran against a 169.8 TE, while running 2nd by 2.5 lengths and registering a 169.2 TE. Analysis of other lines was simple, as Line 2 saw this horse compete successfully vs. a 170.5 TE, while registering a 169.5 TE on its own. Line 3 saw this horse win vs. a 169.7, where it matched that PoR.

1 - Early Run Style. The 1st thing I notice was a (+) line in its last race vs. a 171.5 TE pace. However, that pace proved to be its undoing, as it fell apart between the 2nd call and Finish. I excused the line and moved down to Line 2. Line 2 was a + line AND a wire to wire win while establishing a 168.9 TE pace. It also happens to be the best overall perceptor rating. That was my line choice.

2 - Early Run Style. The two most recent races suggest that this runner has some form defects that are troublesome. As Bill points out, today starts a new form cycle, but you really don't know what you are going to get out of this horse. Why the lack of speed in its last? Could it have been a poor post position? Since Line 2 was a (+) line, I decided to give the horse a line based on the 3rd line down, which was a + line wire to wire win, while establishing a 169.3 TE pace. That is close enough to contend today. However, with its recent issues, the pace could be its undoing.

3 - Unknown factor. This horse is cutting back from route races. It is also starting a new form cycle, but why has it been laid up for 63 days? Physical issues? Its record at the distance and sprinting overall has been marginal at best. While it won vs. a 169.4 going two turns at Churchill back in the fall (October 1, 2016), I can't draw a conclusion of how it will fare today on the cutback. You can either choose that line, or let the trend be your friend and let the horse beat you. I chose the latter.

4 - Sustained Presser. This was the horse we established the TE pace off of for the reasons explained above. Even though Line 3 was a better perceptor total, Line 3 was at 6.5F while Lines 1 and 2 are at today's distance. I chose Line 2.

5 - Early Run Style. Since Line 1 was up against a 171.0 TE pace and was a (+) line, I decided to go for the next comparable line. It happens to be Line 4, a 7F race at Churchill back 130 days ago. Mind you, this is not ideal, but the window is open and I will attempt to rate this horse. It ran wire to wire in 168.6 TE. Clearly, if this horse tries to go with other earlies, it could be in serious trouble. Likely non-contender.

6 - Early Run Style. This runner has been up against fast PoR's in its previous three starts. It hung on vs a 171.8 TE in its last, holding 3rd through the stretch call. Since I didn't consider Line 2 (7.5F at Delta, two turns) as comparable, I reached to Line 3, 140 days ago at Churchill. Again, not ideal, but since this horse has been competitive vs this pace, I rated it off its 171.2 TE + win line going early. The other early runners could burn up bad if they have to race against anything similar to what this one is capable of setting.

7 - Presser. I excused Line 1, as it was up against a rapid 172.5 TE off the layoff in its last. I went down to Line 2, 112 days ago at Los Alamitos, where it won off a 169.8 TE pace.

8 - Ugly. The horse is not competitive against any pace in the 170's recently. The form is downhill.

Based on my lines, I prefer #6 and #7 to counter.
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Practice Race GP 4/17/16 race 5 Bill V. Pace Makes the Race / TPR 14 04-18-2016 09:24 PM
Practice Race Keeneland Race 8 Bill V. Pace Makes the Race / TPR 29 04-17-2016 08:48 PM
Practice Race Capcondo Matchup Discussion 6 11-19-2014 10:07 AM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST Ted Craven August Contest 1 07-24-2012 10:09 PM
MatchUP intuition is "Primary", MatchUP mathematics is "Corollary"/Secondary VoodooFan Matchup Discussion 41 02-27-2011 03:05 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:51 PM.