Practice Race for fun - OP 6th - 4/6/17

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by raceman5

By the way in the first race at Aqueduct today there is a Hat spot play see if you can find it and report back.


Bob

Bob I assume you meant the lone E #4. I didn't go to Aqu today because of the slop. Not so sure he was lone early because of the sprinters. Maybe that was what you meant. Sprinters compromising an early router.

Pook

[The Pook]

From a matching viewpoint I am surprised to see myself on the exact same numbers as Jeebs.

Bob is right, there are three matching early horses, 1,2, and 5 which project a pace around 21.6, 45.1. None look dominant. For me this eliminated one of the likely favourites (who Bob likes, #4). The 4's best are against mid 22's and mid 45's. I see a tighter pace as above.

To me only see 6 and 7 are successful against that with the 6 ahead of the 7. I had their power lines (pace lines) as 3rd and 2nd respectively.

6,7 depending on odds

Pook

[papajohn3times]

Just as pure speculation,I would probably bet the 7 but I might be persuaded to PASS because of the layoffs and such. Question? How do you guys(and gals!) determine "starts a new form cycle today)? Is it based on a certain amount of days off?
Thanks again and good luck folks!
Papa John

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by Jeebs

6 - Early Run Style. This runner has been up against fast PoR's in its previous three starts. It hung on vs a 171.8 TE in its last, holding 3rd through the stretch call. Since I didn't consider Line 2 (7.5F at Delta, two turns) as comparable, I reached to Line 3, 140 days ago at Churchill. Again, not ideal, but since this horse has been competitive vs this pace, I rated it off its 171.2 TE + win line going early. The other early runners could burn up bad if they have to race against anything similar to what this one is capable of setting.

There are always differing viewpoints in the same methodology. Jeebs calls #6 an early but I see him as relegated to slightly off the pace with the 1,2 and 5 in here. He can pass horses and so I see him possibly being successful from there.

Pook

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by papajohn3times

Just as pure speculation,I would probably bet the 7 but I might be persuaded to PASS because of the layoffs and such. Question? How do you guys(and gals!) determine "starts a new form cycle today)? Is it based on a certain amount of days off?
Thanks again and good luck folks!
Papa John

Papa, I don't often pay attention to layoffs or form cycles but the last race for the 7 showed a nice enough move to consider him not out of form.

Pook

[Lt1]

Interesting race
#1 L2
#2 L3
#3 L4 COUNTER ENERGY
#4 L3
#6 L3
#7 L2
I'LL GO 4-7-3-6
Tim G

[Lt1]

Hi Papa. I consider a new form cycle starting when a horse breaks its' mdn and is facing winners for the 1st time, horses coming off a layoff of 45 days or more, a horse changing
surfaces for the 2nd race in a row or changing racing circuits.
Tim G

[Mitch44]

6th OP 6 Apr.17
Lines:
#1 L 1 tough choice between Lines 1&2, 1 has a better POH TE & POR TE but not as good a Percept as L 1
I did the other horses then ran both lines and line 1 came out best
#2 L 4 did this one after #1 and others choice was between lines 3 & 4, I went for L 4 because it had a better variant and that variant was more attuned or compared to the other variant for other horses.
#3 L 4 all route races, threw L2 off track, used best precept of last 3
#4 L 3 best precept of last 3
#5 L 7 eliminated lines 3, 4, & 5 which were S lines and horse is an E horse, L 5 was a route out, L7 best TE of POH & POR and precept.
#6 L 3 Best TE of POH & POR & precept.
#7 L 2 best TE of POH and precept
#8 L 3 best TE of POH and best precept.
#1, #2 & # 5 all appear to be NTL and the race appears set up for a closer
However I believe it will run early. I tossed the #1 as the worse of the 3.
Top5: 5-2-4-7-3
Order 5-2-4-7 Note 4 & 7 very close. 5 & 2 have some back class, not sure the 5 & 2 remain sound and form is questionable but work outs indicate to be OK only need one to be OK, ML odds justify the risk, plus a tough race & tough lines.
Mitch44

[Jeebs]

#6 loses its rider out of the gate and the entire complexion of the race changes. Tough game.

[Bill V.]

I consider a new form cycle based on many things ,
Number 1 is a layoff of over 30 days 4 week or 1 month in the barn.
Other form cycle changes are a different distance , a different surface, The first race after a claim, any win line is usually the end of that form cycle, As a horse should be facing tough completion following the win ,Even a negative dropper is starting anew after a win or close finish but is being dropped in class