Day 12 DMR feature Race 7 CL32000

[Bill V.]

Race 7 1 Mile Dirt Purse $39,000 Claiming $32,000

Today we are on the main track, Race 7 a straight $32,000 Claimer



Only a 7 horse field




Hope our success continues,

Here is The ML Favorite
This 6-year-old has an only 2-21 lifetime record. Last year at this time he was running very well at the $62.000 level and had the lead in a $75,000 stakes
Then he went on the shelf for 210 days. In his second try after that layoff
again at the $62,000 level He ran a plus race, but then went on another
46-day layoff? Now today he is for sale at $32,000
Looks like this is their hope to reach the winner's circle and pay those bills

[Bill V.]

I probably will just wagercap ( take the best odds) small win bets today,
I can't make hide nor hair out of races 6 or 8 so doubles are out.

Looks like they are trying to build a carry over for the Friday card

I hate to make wagercap bets on these posted races
because some people can't/ won't accept that theory. They think it's sacrilegious.

Enough of my ranting LOL

Here is what I have so far ..



Horse 5 is interesting, The numbers are good. He likes the distance.
Pace should be to its liking with the 2 and 7 going out early, he should be right there.
Class and form are the issues

Claimed last race for 40 and sprinting at 6.5 Why? Then go on another layoff and now today in for 32?

[Mark]

DMR has the longest run-up of any mile dirt track in the US, that I know of, 180ft. 20 -30 years ago I didn't know this and would have very poor luck at Hol and SA because the DMR lines would have such fast early fractions. It was unusual to see modest claimers go 22+ - 44+ - 109 and change. I looked at the chart on the #6's race 291 days ago and it confirmed that even with the surface change in recent years, the Run-up was listed at 200ft. There are 3 horses in here that do not win without the lead at the 1st call. Of his two wins showing the #2 has one in which he pressed the pace from 3rd back 1.1 length.
So essentially you have 4 Early running horses out of 7 starters. None of these runners quit when headed and continue to run on. You can't discard them necessarily from exotics play. The best of these apparently is the #7 horse. If you notice his line 3 back at DMR 8f, you have his fastest 1st fraction at 22.6. That is 2/5ths of a second faster than any other mile race at other tracks. That is the advantage of the Run-up at DMR 8f. I didn't use that line because it sent him to the sidelines but this horse has a 1/5th second advantage over all other E types. Given his 4 works since last race, the first of which was only 13 days following that race and a 58.6 5f work 18 days ago, I'd say this horse will be hard to beat. As Jim Bradshaw said in one of the audio tapes, "you know some of these trainers would like to sell these horses". With win purse and claiming tag, they will take more than $50,000 out of the race. However, a 7 year old with only 21 lifetime starts and two layoffs of over 270 days in his last 10 races, you have to wonder. Would someone plunk down $32,000 for this horse?
The only horse that appears that he may be able to outrun the #7 is the #6 who has twice run within two lengths of a 22 and held position to a 44.6 and 44.7 2nd call in those sprints and he breaks inside the #7. I think that is enough and will variegate the race OTE.

The #5 just doesn't look fast enough at a mile to remain in contention. So, my final contenders are the #1 and #4. In matching these two horses, I will look at all of their races:

I'm going to go with the #4 as he appears faster to me and the #1 has the disadvantage of the rail and may have to use more energy early to keep from getting shuffled back or just drop to the rear of the pack. The #4 should have clear sailing when they turn for home from the 4 post.

[raceman5]

Another race with tons of speed. 31 speed points. I will go with


7-4


Bob

[The Pook]

Y'all might want to adjust your thinking because the 6&7 are scratched leaving only 5 horses.

Pook

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Y'all might want to adjust your thinking because the 6&7 are scratched leaving only 5 horses.

Pook

Thanks Pook

Looks like today is an El Paso

Mark, That is too bad Thank you though for your excellent write up
before scratches

6 and 7 are out

[raceman5]

With the scratch of the 7 i will go with the 4-3

[Mitch44]

I have it 4-2-5
Mitch44

[The Pook]

The 4 certainly has the class and could run away from these. But I ended with only two contenders after not liking any matching patterns...3,5

I'll go 5,3 @ 60/40

Pook

[Bill V.]

Looks Mark, Mitch, Bob and I had the 4. We all liked Ike! actually it was a IKE exacta

First off Thank you Mark for joining in

Thanks to Pook for the scratch update,

I ended up never getting a chance to cancel my little wagercap
bet, Stupid Los Angeles traffic, It is impossible to pull over when the 210 gets backed up. I endured and my reward is now I'm free and heading down to Del Mar for some yoga and live racing tomorrow!!!!

I bet small today, I was hoping for better odds
I liked the 3 and 4 You guys put me over so I never canceled
Hey 3 bucks helps some,
I went to line 4 I really liked the OTE style and The 4 dropping to 32,000
seems acceptable after 3 missses There really are not that many options at SoCal between $32,000 open and $62,000 restricted