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08-13-2017, 12:11 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Day 20 DMR feature race. Race 8 8.5 OC40N-2X
Today looks like a good chance to change our fortune,
The last 3 races have been won by low favorites or 2nd choices. Today the morning line favorite is 7/2 Horse 1 8.5 on the main track Heading to Los Angeles, L. A. Women https://youtu.be/t3jf9_rua5Q Last edited by Bill V.; 08-13-2017 at 12:14 PM. |
08-13-2017, 04:20 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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I like the 4 and the 1, with the 2 the place horse.
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08-13-2017, 05:45 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Race
Hi Bill
My early view agrees with you , 1 and 4 I also like the 7 The 2 is a good observation by you, His EPR and LPR balance is just below the leaders in TPR but still strong in both . Doubles and pick us are out today. At 8/1 odds on the 4 and 7 I probably will go win and exacta, Screen shots to follow first I am going to kill this stupid fly that flew into the truck , now it won't fly out . Bill "the fly killer" V. |
08-13-2017, 06:28 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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I think horses that prefer to come from far back are up against it here. The pace could be relatively easy which leaves 1,2,3,5 in and around the front. Two of these can win from the lead or from just off the lead and so are dangerous horses to bet against.
1,5 @ 60/40 Pook |
08-13-2017, 06:42 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Tpr
Sunday
The 1 has an advantage on EPR so they will have to catch him |
08-13-2017, 08:23 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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# 1 clearly best horse among these however a 8 yr. old coming off a layoff with lots of 3 yr. young guns coming after him. Advantage 3 yr. old
# 11 takes a big drop ?? # 3 & 6 won last race and could be anything, unknown factors # 2 2nd start w/ B on # 5 regaining old form & on improve and returns to dirt. #10 stretching out and rated before ??? I would put this 2-4-1-9-6 if I had to play, contest etc. However with so many questions involved here I have no confidence in this one at all. I'm passing this one. Good capping, Mitch44 |
08-13-2017, 08:27 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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I'll go $3wp 1 and $2wp 2 and a $2ex box 1-2-11 and $1 ex 1211/45 total $28
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
08-13-2017, 11:08 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Results
The 11 gets bet down to 2/1 and wins as the favorite.
Pook I thought you might catch a nice one with the 5 My 7 was too far back, finished well but was never a real factor Tim came close to a nice exacta Good call using the 11 |
08-14-2017, 11:36 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
These types always perplex me. Obviously they thought he was good enough to run in a Grade 1, but failed with suspect energy distribution for this type of race. I either agree and take a chance or I discard. I keep him, I win a small pick 4. I discarded
Total energy was only enough to hit the bottom of my contenders and although TE was increasing with each start, I did not bite. If I'd have reversed the EPL and LPR numbers perhaps I would have viewed the outcome a little differently, since the class of horse in today's race was no where near the field from its last. Also, tons of typical Baffert works said he was ready. TPR screen for my contenders: |
08-14-2017, 02:56 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Bill;
I also wrestled with this horse and he came up last for Tot. Energy, I used Line 2 and his best preceptor. I was perplexed by his real running style and thought the # 1 might run him into to not finishing well. Even through dropping he didn't overwhelm the field, plus his speed rating didn't overwhelm them. An unknown factor in my analysis. His final odds verses the risk of the race ended up really poor. He was a puzzle like many others and I just couldn't get a good handle on this race so passed it, ended up the correct decision. Sometimes it pays to trust your feeling in this game. Even some ugly races are better than others, ditto for all races. I don't think anybody made the wrong bet in this one as looking for a overlay was a smart choice in this one which most bet. That is overlay and logical. True ability of young horses always belong to the connections of owner and trainer. I don't see how the public could drive the price down like that, perhaps the stable sent it in. I'm sure they don't bet every horse Baffert runs like that. Mitch44 |
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