Entropy-Thoromation Belmont Stakes 2014

[Bill V.]

Entropy = Phase 1= Thoromation

My lines Entropy has the race at 9.5 I used 153 as the track record
I don't see 9.5 on my 3 year best for Belmont so I split the 9 and 10 furlong times


my thinking ...
Horse 1 Can't use the Derby pace line. Line 2 is on
the Keene poly so if its close he is out
Horse 2 California Chrome Line 1 Grade 1 Preakness
Horse 3 No line Matterhorn only has a MS win
Can't even beat allowance horses
Horse 4 Derby place horse Can't use the Derby line so Line 2 The grade 2 FG + race
Horse 5 Ride On Curlin Line 1 Preakness place +
Horse 6 Matusak another maiden clown. No line
Horse 7 Derby line is out but Line 2 a G1 + race is in
beat 14 horses in the derby so it belongs here..
Horse 8 Commissioner line 1 is a Grade 2 + line
Horse 9 Wicked Derby line is out Line 2 is in G1 Wood win
Horse10 I will rate the Preakness line since it did not quit. its a (+) I will enter the 11 BL as 9
Horse 11 Tonalist Line 1 Its a G2 + line

Here are my lines

[Bill V.]

I used the 2 adjust for this grade 1 race

Everybody is adjusted to 164 62-63
the top 5 DTE horse are
1 9 2 5 8

the top 5 HE/dv -hidden Energy
1,11,8,2.9

Top 5 Td/dv Total deceleration / Velocity
1,8,11,9,4
CC is 6th

The DC/V Sort
The #1 Ep/dv horse always goes into thoromation
so #2 CC will make the cut

[Bill V.]

Now to Phase 1

TPR top 5 plus the #1 EP and # 1 LP

11 184.8
8 179.8
2 179.5 #1 EP
9 178.7
7 174.2
1 174.1 #1 LP
These 6 go into Thoromation
If this was a normal race I would use my model
of Par Med and Td/dv to eliminate down to 4 horses
but I have no Belmont model
I will use what I have

[Bill V.]

The Variate is EXDC As Doc writes The Belmont runs more early then the other two TC races.

Horse 1 is last on the EXDC screen. Horse 9 is last on the SP screen and Thoromation so they are out.

Now these 4 are left
2 8 7 11

Here is the EXDC first screen



Here is the SP OTE screen



Here is Thoromation which matches the EXDC screen

[lone speed]

Bill...

I appreciate that you took the time to work the Belmont Stakes. This year, it is very obvious the huge pent up demand to see a Triple Crown winner after 36 years and counting. With your read outs, it guess it will be 37 years and counting.

Bill, I am very aware that Entropy uses no variant adjustments nor track to track conversions. I had used Entropy for many years as a valuable tool to weed out the one move horse. It is one program that can be used to get a race down to the true contenders.

My concern is that you used a one turn route pace line for Tonnalist and Commissioner, which distorts the readous that you presented. Wouldn't it be best to account for the one turn route race at Belmont before proceeding to evaluate the essential readouts? My intention is to learn and to account for this fact before making any wagers or final determination...

Thanks in advance....

[Bill V.]

I apologize .. I still am very weak in my general handicapping knowledge
Things like 1 turn and 2 turn races, poly lines and class well I am very poor in my knowledge.

I will make small win bets on my selections just in case.
I suggest everybody proceed with caution


Believe me If I lose this race or I win it my main purpose is always to teach
Sartin programs and CONCEPTS so I apologize for screwing up with the 0ne turn lines but hopefully my work teaches the CONCEPT of Entropy- Phase 1 and Thoromation

But do me a favor LS. If 11 or 8 wins please come back
we will see if the Entropy readouts really did get distorted incorrectly LOL

[lone speed]

Bill V.

There is no need to apologize. You are an excellent teacher of older Sartin programs, keeping the spirit of "Doc" on this board. Your step by step elimination examples are great teaching "guidelines" as some of us had to learn "new Sartin" programs like Entropy and Energy out of the box without much printed or guided instructions during a different era. Maybe, it was by design by Sartin, as Sartin mentioned in some old manuscripts that there was no "correct" way to using the methodology.

I used to keep a stack of losing races or "problem races" Some of the recurring issues were efforts to compare pacelines from Northern Cal tracks (Pleasanton fair races or Santa Rosa races) with Southern Cal tracks even though Phase 1 users already had charts of adjustments made out to account for the differences. Some other issues were efforts to compare "quirky" distances like the downhill turf races or the one turn mile dirt races at Hollywood Park.

Entropy and Energy are great programs but if one is able to account for the huge differences in daily variants or "track to track adjustments":they become powerful programs!!!

Back to the race at hand and California Chrome's pursuit of the Triple Crown in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Win or lose, the process was in question....not your final contenders for the top two positions....

Many thanks again for working races using some of the older Sartin programs!!

[Bill V.]

Hi Lone Speed

Thanks for the encouraging words

I was thinking. Can you look at this ?.
As we know Entropy makes no adjustment for track to track or daily variant
So if we look at this we see the actual pace of race to the left for the raw
pacelines
To me the first call numbers are very close between the horses that ran 1 turn The 1 turn horses have 46 and change not that much faster than California Chrome and others who ran at Pimlico
to the two turns I'm thinking most tracks are mile ovals
all my lines were from 9 or 9.5 distance races
It seems like the pace of the 1 turn races is very close to the two turn races

[Ted Craven]

Lone Speed,

Agreed - Bill does a great job demonstrating the use of these programs and bringing back to attention all the various concepts that went into them! I know I learn new things about them, even if I do not use those programs anymore, but they do give me ideas for RDSS

An interesting point, re your comments about DTV and ITV variants - if those who use RDSS choose to let it incorporate its TrackMaster DTV and ITV variants and distance projections into an Adjusted 3-call (or soon 4-call) export file, then Entropy, EXDC, Thoromation etc can indeed make use of a good set of variants, and perhaps be even stronger, as you suggest.

best,

Ted

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Lone Speed,

Agreed - Bill does a great job demonstrating the use of these programs and bringing back to attention all the various concepts that went into them! I know I learn new things about them, even if I do not use those programs anymore, but they do give me ideas for RDSS

An interesting point, re your comments about DTV and ITV variants - if those who use RDSS choose to let it incorporate its TrackMaster DTV and ITV variants and distance projections into an Adjusted 3-call (or soon 4-call) export file, then Entropy, EXDC, Thoromation etc can indeed make use of a good set of variants, and perhaps be even stronger, as you suggest.

best,

Ted

Chomping at the bit, very ranked, rocking horse, prancing on their hoofs!!!

I want to be clear that I am not a Rdss user, but it seems that it is also a great program as evidenced by the teachings of FTL, RMath's success in incorporating the CSR numbers to determine his win contenders, and Tipton A Gilbert. I am sure that there are others but I am listing those who have posted on this open forum.

The older programs are great but burdened with time consuming data entries plus the comfort zone of having broken them in thru years of use. One must find a balance by limiting the quantities of races handicapped and maximizing wagering strategies.

Rdss is the present and the future. Looking forward to future Rdss updates and wishing you continued success!