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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-08-2016, 02:47 PM   #11
Bill V.
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Hi Mike B and Mitch
Mike I promise to get more clear on how I use the fulcrum,Mitch brings up a few good points.
I am looking at the pace of race , but only at the second call, Mitch makes a great point because the race starts at the break and then what about the first fraction ?
The fulcrum works but I felt that of all the step for phase 1 it's probably the most problematic
The 4 authers of Pace Makes The Race , original version ,
All wrote there parts separately. But for them to include Pizzollas fulcrum helps me to use it .
Only 2 of the 4 authers updated Pace Makes The Race
Doc says he did not because although it worked Phase 1 was
a feeding ground for pirates and he didn't want his name on something that only got $6:00 horses * I repect fully disagree.
I don't know about Pizzolla ,
The remaining 2 authers updated the numbers
And took out stuff from Doc .

Anyway I promise to get a little more involved with why and how I use the fulcrum ,
GS
Bill

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-08-2016 at 02:50 PM.
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:27 PM   #12
MikeB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
I don't know about Pizzolla ,
The remaining 2 authers updated the numbers
And took out stuff from Doc .

Anyway I promise to get a little more involved with why and how I use the fulcrum ,
GS
Bill
One story I heard was that there was a disagreement between Pizzolla on the one hand and Hambleton and Schmidt on the other hand about the use of TPR.

Pizzolla argued that adding the early and late ratings together just gave you an overall speed rating, and that using the two separately gave you more information. The other two said that the TPR was a compound rating that was more powerful than a simple speed rating.

Pizzolla went on to write "Handicapping Magic", which comes up with two separate ratings, one is speed adjusted for early pace, the other rates the final fraction adjusted for beaten lengths. Both use the fractions of the fulcrum horse as kind of projection or par, rating each horse relative to the fulcrum. The two ratings are in entirely different formats, and cannot be combined.
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Old 03-09-2016, 07:18 PM   #13
Bill V.
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Fulcrum

Mike B

Its about 10 minutes to post time so lets see what happens

Here are the last lines for all the horses in race 7.
Its a 9.0 turf race at Turf Paradise. For now lets just look for the fulcrum
Looking at the last lines, the only horses that qualify are horses
3 and 8 because they were less than 5 bl at the 2nd call and final time .

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Here are the TPR numbers
Who has the fastest ( best ) EPR
Its horse 3 withan 87

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now as long as the 87 EPR is not aberrant for horse 3 , than the 3 would be the fulcrum - I would expect about a 111 EPR in this race,
although 9 furlongs

More to come ,

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-09-2016 at 07:35 PM.
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Old 03-09-2016, 07:33 PM   #14
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okay I will post up the official result chart

This points to the 3 being the fulcrum and the 2nd call pace of race
being about 111

Now I snapped this as the race was being run' I just ran ,

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Look who !! The 3 battled for the lead right from the break,
It had the lead in the second fraction but it was dead tight at the second call,
The 3 was right there.. The pace of race was 112 but the fulcrum correctly called the 3 ,

Now how do we use this before the race?
Like I said Its hard to explain how this is possible but it seems to work often.
You may not get the exact pace of race , we were off by over 1 second
here , but you will get a very good idea of the leaders by position
If you have a deep closer with only a 76 EPR but your fulcrum is 87
you have to ask, Can my horse make up 10 points of EPR ?
Is Its LPR strong enough to overcome being 10 points behind

More to come, but this is one of the ways I us the fulcrum
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Old 03-09-2016, 08:04 PM   #15
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My look at the 7th from TP

Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
8 5 6 4 3

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
3 87 ( 111 )

Step 3 Running styles
Horse 1 Sus Line 1
Horse 2 EP 1
Horse 3 EP Line 1
Horse 4 SP line 1
Horse 5 Sus line 1
Horse 6 Sus Line 1
Horse 7 Sus line 1
Horse 8 SP line 1
No reason to go past line 1 on anybody

Step 4 Who has the top EPR
The 3 has the best EPR 87
Early Presser

Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions
Now will the 3 with a 87 LPR
be able to hold on ? .

The top TPR horses
They are 8 3 and 5
Top 3 VDC = 3 5 8

My bets 3 and 8
5 may be too far back with only a 78 EPR

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Old 03-09-2016, 08:06 PM   #16
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pace lines

horse
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Old 03-09-2016, 08:07 PM   #17
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horse

5 6 7 8

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Old 03-09-2016, 08:17 PM   #18
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The results

The 4 wins - just a shade off my radar

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Old 03-09-2016, 09:18 PM   #19
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The only line I would have changed is on the #1 horse and would have used L 2 which more fits his running style otherwise little difference in TPR.

A very contentious race and a great challenge to handicappers but very gettable. Would have been a great race to put up much earlier for followers to get involved. At these levels they can be very good challenge.

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Old 03-09-2016, 09:46 PM   #20
Bill V.
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will do

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
The only line I would have changed is on the #1 horse and would have used L 2 which more fits his running style otherwise little difference in TPR.

A very contentious race and a great challenge to handicappers but very gettable. Would have been a great race to put up much earlier for followers to get involved. At these levels they can be very good challenge.

Mitch44
Hi Mitch
Yes it was, I missed this one but the numbers as you say were tight.
I looked at line 2 also. The 84 EPR is not really this horse's comfort zone
We can see this by the much shorter blue LPR line, The blue lines for line 2-10 which shows its normal LPR style/ability is to run with much more late energy,
I looked at its + lines and thought " positionaly too far back" looking at line 1
I said what was its excuse ? The comments "4 path btwn no late bid" so I don't know . I went with error on the side of off form, Looking at line 3, at the same distance and surface but against better shows nothing with only a 169 TPR

As far as this race, I only put up my work up to show Mike B some of the ways I go about using the fulcrum, I wanted to post the fulcrum before the race, so I could show its ability, I only had 10 minutes.
Once the race was over I figured i would post up my looks
i will post practice races in their own threads and i will give us all more time

If you would like me to post a race to give you enough time to work it.
ask me

Good skill
Bill
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