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Old 11-19-2019, 06:41 PM   #1
rdiam
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Bill Benter

Remember, when betting into a pari-mutuel pool, we are betting against the others in the pool: WE ARE NOT BETTING ON HORSES!

With this in mind, here is a link to the story of Bill Benter, one of he most successful advantage gamblers in history. Don't kid yourself: he is betting in the same pools you are, so beware...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

Richard
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Old 11-19-2019, 07:16 PM   #2
Bill V.
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The horse still runs the race

Hi Richard

I still feel that we have just a good of a tool in RDSS or any Sartin Programs That the big shots computer algorithms are spitting out.
If proper pacelines and guidelines are used

Here is my last win bet. It was race 7 from DMR on Nov 16th I have not bet since.

I bet $5 win on the 5 and the 8. When I made the bet, Bill Benter was not any part of my thought process.

Even with all the "smart" money or syndicates The winner # 5 was still slightly higher than the morning line

I have always believed, No matter how many more zero's there are at the end of the bet that Joe Blow or BB bets, the horse still runs the race.

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Old 11-20-2019, 10:42 AM   #3
Mitch44
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Benter isn't the only one to beat this game. Back in the 1930 -1940 etc . no one kept track of consistency, The Speed boys also beat it by keeping their own records and only betting horses that could hold their speed all the way to the wire. This also was a favorite play for "The Hat" Jimmy Bradshaw. Fabricand did his study on the collective ability of the public (brain storming) which was a huge part of the Benter approach. Also Dr Z beat it with a sophisticated dutching approach, also with a class calculator called the Kelco class calculator the game was beaten.

The one thing they all seam to have in common was they did their own studies and kept records to find edges over the public. The game can be beaten and will be in the future.

The game evolves and once things are out in the public domain the edge ceases to exists or greatly decreases. Anything can win a race but consistently to beat the game and capitalize over the public is difficult at best but not impossible.

Everyone now a days use consistency, speed, etc. so they still win but the price is greatly reduced and its very difficult. Pace brought about by Sartin still wins but the average price of winners has dropped considerably since the early 90's. Everyone talks about Pace today along with ESP styles etc. The Kelco class calculator was destroyed by State bred races and paying (earnings) to horses that finish 4th or worse. The Dr Z approach is devastated by simulcasting and late money coming in, making it very difficult to know the actual odds to place the correct bet.

Once its out there the game changes and survives in one way or another.Those that think giving something away doesn't have an effect on the game are fools as their bottom line will dwindle.

While many of these proven concepts such as Pace etc. still win the edge goes to those that really study it to become an expert with it and have the discipline to manage money properly.

To win and get an edge do your own studies and keep your findings to yourself. Racing is fraught with false statistical data but most are too lazy to exploit it as their more into instant gratification and aren't about to do any work, give them a black box approach and their happy.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-20-2019 at 10:46 AM.
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Old 11-20-2019, 12:36 PM   #4
partsnut
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Mitch 44: "The game evolves and once things are out in the public domain the edge ceases to exists or greatly decreases. Anything can win a race but consistently to beat the game and capitalize over the public is difficult at best but not impossible."
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Mitch, I totally agree with you.If you study the correct data you can still win and if you bet with an edge and not against it. It comes down to how and how much you bet on a race, how much discipline you have and what you use to determine the outcome of a race.

I believe I have found the right answer.
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Old 11-20-2019, 03:00 PM   #5
ssag0
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great job

Good work my friend.
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Old 11-20-2019, 03:05 PM   #6
Mitch44
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I'm glad your doing well Bill and good luck going forward.


Mitch44
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Old 11-20-2019, 06:04 PM   #7
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Great job Bill
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Old 11-20-2019, 07:04 PM   #8
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I read an interesting Article by Mike Curry from America's Best Bets
Lessons Well Learned. I definitely concur with this and I will now quote it. I know that there are, in my opinion, some misguided and brain washed people that will disagree with what follows next, which is, and in my opinion, there misfortune. There are those that are fixated on a antiquated set of rules that were originated for those that could not or not have the ability or confidence to make a single horse winning horse pick.


"4. Bet to Win
I spent a good part of my early betting days making across-the-board bets, especially when I landed on a longshot, and there is something to be said for being rewarded when a bomb clunks up or hangs on for a minor spot, but in general I’ve come around to betting almost exclusively straight win bets when I’m not playing exotic bets. If you make three substantial win bets on horses at a solid value, you only need one winner to make a nice profit. If two-thirds of that money is tied up in place and show bets, you might need all three to run well.
The win bet should be the key bet, especially for newcomers. Takeout (the amount of money that goes to the track that is not returned to bettors) for win, place, and show bets is less than most exotic bets. Most importantly, don’t bet two or more horses to win in the same race. You start out with at least one bet that’s a guaranteed loser, and it’s a recipe for disaster in the long term."


[Post edited by Ted Craven to remove disrespectful comments to Bill V, contrary to Code of Conduct]



I am not opposed to RDSS or the Sartin software. I have been successful with Energy about 15 years ago. I no longer use them.

Today's horse racing has evolved and the racing classes presented on todays cards are far more complex then they have ever been. Accurate information technology and value is what's needed to handicap successfully.

I would never bet in this manner. producing an even money outcome as in shown in the race example provided. It is a futile, weak and non productive example. I sincerely believe the following bet shown, is not a good example of what one should be doing.

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Last edited by Ted Craven; 11-21-2019 at 11:01 AM. Reason: remoed disrespectful language, violating Code of Conduct
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Old 11-21-2019, 11:13 AM   #9
Ted Craven
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Please Read Carefully

Partsnut (Bill H) -

I reinstated your earlier post which Bill V deleted (after consulting with him), but I edited it to remove inappropriate comments criticizing another Member contrary to the PaceandCap Code of Conduct. You've been around here long enough to know the rules of civil commentary, and been banned once before (or more?) for similar reasons.

You (and any member) are more than welcomed to express differences of opinion BUT they must always be done with RESPECT. Many of your recent comments on the other hand - in my opinion - seem to have a tone of condescension, feel pedantic and absolutist and filled with barely concealed disrespect for Dr Sartin, his legacy and current community.

Some of these posts of yours have been recently edited by me to omit those comments, and for example, to suggest a posture of gratitude for those who congratulated you and wished you well in your Contest adventures (including me). I guess my 'hint' was too subtle (sigh) ... Really - what's the point of haranguing us about how we are deluded or using outdated/faulty software or following not credible teachers. You don't enter someone's own home to tell them they're a fool. That's not how you 'gain friends and influence people'.

This has nothing to do with your choice of software tools (Betmix, which seems to be serving you well - congratulations). Betting strategy is always at least as important (IMO) as handicapping analysis tools and this thread's opening thesis is at least in part about that idea. I have told you before that you are more than welcomed to post your Selections for all to see and compare, and to follow up with the results as several others do (only NOT merely post a link offsite to those selections).

However - keep the Betmix usage notes to the Betmix Forum, similarly - HTR usage notes to the HTR Forum, Black Magic to the Pizolla Black Magic forum, Jcapper and HSH to their own dedicated respecive forums, etc. And PaceandCap is for Sartin Methodology, RDSS and older Sartin software - along with concepts espoused by Dr Sartin in the Follow Ups.

You are welcomed to reply - BUT your future posts may not be disrespectful to Members (overtly or veiled) or to the Sartin Methodology in general. If you wish to do that, do it in Private or elsewhere. Bill V and I reserve the right to be the final deciders of what is respectful tone of voice and what is not. In general I am pretty forgiving (please check our previous interactions) - but only to a point.

Right now, I consider the 'ban button' to be in YOUR hands. Enough said.

With respect.

Ted
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Old 11-21-2019, 12:02 PM   #10
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Ted,

Thank you for your response and tolerance of my comments.
I personally apologize to you and only you. I don't always agree with everything that is posted on Pace and Cap. I am very critical when it comes to misinformation of methods of play and wagering, especially from those that in my opinion, are not qualified to give it.
It can actually be irritating, annoying and offensive to some serious players and does not enhance your board or product. Actually It can be self defeating for your purposes.
Believe me when I say that there are others that feel the same way as I do but are quiet about it. In fact, they are so quiet they never express any opinion online or ever post.
I will no longer be critical of anyone that posts on your site. I believe it is no longer of importance to me. I believe I've made my point.

I wish you and your family the best. Have a Happy Thanksgiving.
Thank you for understanding. I have no axe to grind with you.
Thank you for understanding.

Best regards,

Bill Hirschman
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