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11-16-2019, 01:51 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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CD R10 Gr 3 River City
Lets try something a bit different: a detailed handicap of the feature today at CD:
In reverse order: 7 -- Bemma's Boy: big class jump to graded stakes, jockey switch to Leparoux, third race after layoff, figures to regress after last race win, but has a decent closing kick to use underneath in exotics 10 -- Lascaux: big class jump to graded stakes, jockey switch to Rocco, second race after layoff, figures to regress from last race effort => TOSS 6 -- Space Mountain: jockey switch to Santana, but looks like Sept 29 and Sept 5 race took a lot out of him, likely going off form and regress from last race => TOSS 3-- Blue Sky Cowboy: big jump to graded stakes, negative jockey switch to Doyle, figures to regress from after last race win => TOSS 5 -- My Bariely: big jump in class, figures to regress from last race effort, is a bona fide late runner => if can run anywhere close to last race effort might use underneath 9 -- Admission Office: dropping from G1 stakes, highest average earnings in field, second after layoff should move horse forward from last race => high class horse to use underneath in exotics 2 -- Emmaus: third after layoff, consistent horse in form, can compete at this level, will be closing late => WIN bet at 8-1 or better, use in exotics 1 -- Cullum Road: competitive in graded stakes, 4th race after layoff, jockey switch to Gaffalione => WIN bet at 6-1 or better, use in exotics 8 -- Get Western: can control the early pace, if Hernandez can slow it down enough might have enough to finish => WIN bet at 4-1 or better, use in exotics 4 -- Mr Misunderstood: first after layoff, should win if runs back to last race => WIN bet at 5-2 or better, use in exotics Good luck Richard |
11-16-2019, 02:31 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi Richard
Here is what I come up with
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11-16-2019, 06:40 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Nice overlay on the winner: 5/2 ML, goes off 9/2, created an overlay on the vertical exotics (ex, tri, super) as well
Race 10 River City H. - Grade: 3 Off at: 5:43 Race Type: Stakes Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Purse: $175,000 Distance: One And One Eighth Miles On The Turf Track Condition: Good Winning Time: 1:53.31 Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show 4 Mr. Misunderstood Florent Geroux 11.20 6.20 3.00 1 Cullum Road Tyler Gaffalione 9.00 4.40 9 Admission Office Jose L. Ortiz 2.20 Also ran: 7 - Bemma's Boy , 10 - Lascaux , 5 - My Bariley , 6 - Space Mountain , 2 - Emmaus (IRE) , 8 - Get Western , 3 - Blue Sky Kowboy Denotes a Keeneland Sales Graduate Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff $0.50 Pick 3 7-5-4 (3 correct) 128.20 $1 Daily Double 5-4 60.30 $2 Exacta 4-1 88.00 $0.10 Superfecta 4-1-9-7 94.57 $0.50 Trifecta 4-1-9 69.30 |
11-16-2019, 07:33 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,140
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Excellent results Richard. Don't you just love it when the public messes up.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
11-17-2019, 09:44 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Nice analysis Richard.
Mitch44 |
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