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11-23-2019, 12:56 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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AQU r9 Gr 3 Red Smith 11/23/19
AQU r9: the Gr 3 Red Smith on 11/23/19, post time 3:47 pm ET:
A marathon on the turf, but the 8/5 fav looks vulnerable: In reverse order: 10 -- Postulation: 4th after layoff, jockey switch back to Vargas, but the 9/28 race at Laurel seemed to take a lot out of him and appears to be going out of form => TOSS 9 -- Have It All: first after 64 day layoff, jockey switch to Franco, probably too slow to win this but will be closing => USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS 3 -- Nakamura: 4th after layoff, jockey switch to Jose Ortiz, but 9/29 race at Laurel may have taken its toll on form => USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS 2 -- Petit Fils: been racing in Europe, first race after 76 day layoff, jockey switch to Rosario, first time Lasix, 8/1 ml => TOSS 8 -- Red Knight: appears too slow to be competitive with these => TOSS 1 -- Tiz A Slam: dropping from G1, first after 70 day layoff, needs the lead but probably won't get it => TOSS 11 -- Glorious Empire: dropping from G2, 3rd race after layoff, needs the lead and may get it, but early pace effort may take a toll => USE UNDERNEARTH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS 5 -- Red Right Hand: Coming from allowance race, has never run in graded stakes, first race after 48 day layoff, jockey switch to Velasquez, will be competitive early and pressing => WIN CONTENDER at 8-1 or better, USE UNDERNEATCH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS 7 -- Sadler's Joy: dropping from G1, jockey switch to Castellano, first race after 49 day layoff, will likely be the chalk => WIN CONTENDER at 6-1 or better (unlikely), USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS 4 -- Marzo: 3rd race after claim, jockey switch to Irad Ortiz, competitive at G3 level based on last race => WIN CONTENDER at 4-1 or better, USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS 6 -- Dot Matrix: jockey switch to Lezcano, can win this if runs back to 9/22 race and Lezcano controls the pace => WIN CONTENDER at 5/2 or better, USE UNDERNEATH IN VERTICAL EXOTICS Good luck. Richard |
11-23-2019, 01:30 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Aqu
Race 6. 9-7-1-4
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11-23-2019, 01:58 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Race 9
11 7 4
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11-23-2019, 02:35 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Aqu
Race 7. 7-3-2 LS 4
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11-23-2019, 02:39 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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OMAR'S Book?
Beautiful Bob Win Ex and Tri and possible the Super too with the LS 4 |
11-23-2019, 02:49 PM | #6 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Quote:
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11-23-2019, 03:03 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Aqu
Race 8 10-6-7
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11-23-2019, 03:32 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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9th Aqu.
Many unk. factors in this race. #7 may not be ready after layoff #4 Improved from B on, switch to Turf and got dis. in last with win but in slow time, a real unknown. At shorter dis.'s very little deceleration so added dis. makes sense but also steps up in class for this one. #2 foreign horse with limited data, dis & class OK , gets Lasix and a very decent jock, trainer good after layoff and with new horses. Not a prime betting race, I'll go 2-7-4- best WAQ. small wager Mitch44 |
11-23-2019, 03:37 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Aqu
Race 9. 7-3-1
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11-23-2019, 04:07 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
|
Aqu
Race 10 10-9-7 LS 1
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