Gulfstream park 7/31 race 9

[buffaloxp]

what line will you use for horse 1,3,6,8?

[buffaloxp]

horse 6-10

[buffaloxp]

can some one tell me what line you will use on horse 1,3,6,8,

thank you
raymond

[dlivery]

Originally Posted by buffaloxp

can some one tell me what line you will use on horse 1,3,6,8,

thank you
raymond

1 line 4

3 last

6 last

8 line 2

Lawrence

[Mitch44]

#1 L 3 V -24 very fast
#3 L 2 V -24 very fast
#6 L 1 V 11 normal within range however slow compared to others in here
#8 L 3 V -21 very fast

This is where a consistent procedure comes in for picking a pace line. Also why your using RDSS. The settings within RDSS will also give you a consistent approach to adjustments.

With a recommended setting of -15 & +15 it'll adjust these horses and one should trust the results. Its better than you could do and its applied consistently.
Anything under -15 won't be considered and only 50% 0f the -15 will be considered.

With the wide variants among so many horses in this race its extremely doubtful you'll find another line for all of them, therefore treat them all alike.

The real problem with this race is the UNKNOWN Factors within it. Such as 3 dirt horses and only one are for MTO the #4. The # 9 & 10 are going to try turf and are an unknown quantity. There are a couple 3 yr. old who are on the improve and may keep on improving. A first time Gelding and some new trainers who have only had the horse for less than 3 starts. Definitely not a prime betting situation and ripe for an unset.

Scratches may help a little but not enough to elevate the race to a prime betting situation.

The 6,9 or 10 could all pay a price however there would have to be some risk reward there. The 10 with a 6-1 ML isn't worth the risk but perhaps the odds should go up and it should after last two performances and long layoff.

Tread lightly with just a fun bet.

Mitch44

[rdiam]

My two cents:

1 -- Thorn: try both the July 17 and April 18 lines

3 -- Exponential: June 18 race

6 -- Big City Red: try both the July 17 and June 12 lines

8 -- In Honor of Artie: May 1 race

Like Mitch44 says, this appears to be a chaos race before scratches.

Good luck

Richard

[Bill Lyster]

Horse

1, line 4, don't trust 7.5T lines, especially vs horses who have lines at or near todays distance on the turf. If all you have is 7.5t lines they might be overstating the potential vs the rest of the field.

3, line 1

6, line 1

8, line 5

All of these selections are PROVIDED that each line is within the horses normal energy distribution range. otherwise look again.

Once you see what the range of median energys are for these four horses, check to see how close some of the first time turfers run on dirt. They can be contenders if their median energy and total energy are close to the veteran turf horses. Does not happen too often though, but you gotta check.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by bill lyster

horse

i changed line selection on the 6 because line 1 was too sustained from its normal energy expenditure. I ended up liking the 1 and 10. The 10 never on turf has been running in better races and appears to come off a layoff in good form, based on one significant lo. Appears to be the speed here in a race without a clear leader. Has never pressed and made up ground so i would classify as an e type. My exacta is a box 1x10, hoping for longer odds on the 10.

Good luck to all.


1, line 4, don't trust 7.5t lines, especially vs horses who have lines at or near todays distance on the turf. If all you have is 7.5t lines they might be overstating the potential vs the rest of the field.

3, line 1

6, line 1

8, line 5

all of these selections are provided that each line is within the horses normal energy distribution range. Otherwise look again.

Once you see what the range of median energys are for these four horses, check to see how close some of the first time turfers run on dirt. They can be contenders if their median energy and total energy are close to the veteran turf horses. Does not happen too often though, but you gotta check.

[Bill Lyster]

Double bet with 6 in race 8 to the 1 and 5 in the 9th. Still looking at odds on the 10

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Horse

1, line 4, don't trust 7.5T lines, especially vs horses who have lines at or near todays distance on the turf. If all you have is 7.5t lines they might be overstating the potential vs the rest of the field.

3, line 1

6, line 1

8, line 5

All of these selections are PROVIDED that each line is within the horses normal energy distribution range. otherwise look again.

Once you see what the range of median energys are for these four horses, check to see how close some of the first time turfers run on dirt. They can be contenders if their median energy and total energy are close to the veteran turf horses. Does not happen too often though, but you gotta check.

Thanks very much for this tip! I reviewed the -7.5 T at GP lines and the f1 values are drastically different from other lines. So, of course you were correct. It just surprises me how much difference there is, as I have not being handicapping GP much.

Would you say that it would be a good idea to review all f1 values routinely in selecting lines? I would assume that this situation could exist at other tracks and/or distances.