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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 03-06-2019, 01:11 PM   #21
Bill V.
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Many Thanks

Dorianmode and Richie M

Thank you for sharing your workups and stats about turf racing

Very helpful and surely will help others win more often.

Bill
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Old 03-06-2019, 01:34 PM   #22
coacht
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turf contenders

I too want to thank Richie and Dorianmode for their insights.

Bill V, you do a great job as well on this site with all aspects of handicapping.

Turf racing and maiden races can result in nice pay outs, but also the toughest challenge to handicap.

coacht
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Old 03-17-2019, 07:25 PM   #23
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I am not forgetting I have an open question (above) I need to yet answer ... about how I figure differences from the profile.

Here was a fun one. GP 3, on Friday 3/15.
I did bet this one, including the exotics, because my "advantage" numbers (which I'm trying to develop) of the selections one over the other were strong. But even just using RDSS's "raw" selections produce the winner in 1, exacta in 3, the perfecta in 4, and the superfecta in 5. And that's not just blarney.
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Old 03-17-2019, 09:12 PM   #24
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turf contenders

thanks for your replay

hope you can share your advantage numbers at a future date.

sounds like they are working in turf races
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Old 03-18-2019, 06:34 PM   #25
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One thing I forgot to mention about the race above, (GP 3, 3/15).
So in general some days, it seems what this game is about, is validating (or not) what the prevailing opinion is, about the runners in a certain race, (or some days it feels like that). This race was an exception to that. The winner here was 4 in the ML, 3 in the final odds. The winner was not in the top 5 Bris Prime Power selections, nor was it in the Profit Line top 5 selections. The winner was, however 1 in BL in RDSS, 2 in Rx1, 1 in the remaining Rx rankings. More importantly for me, it was 1 in my CSR, one in VDC, 1 in my Contender calculation, and 1 in a number of other numbers I've developed. So if I look at other's public opinions (which I do), in the end, one's own proven handicapping is what has to take preference, even if it doesn't agree with the public numbers.
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Old 03-23-2019, 09:59 AM   #26
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One little non-handicapping tool I found helpful is this weather forecast grouping.
If it's going to be raining, obviously I wouldn't prepare a turf race, and I don't play off-turf races.
http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/weather.html
(Hope it's OK to post this ... if not just remove it )
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Old 03-23-2019, 04:28 PM   #27
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I've said before, that race selection is very important. A perfect example of the type of race I avoid like the plague, was GP #7, Saturday 3/23. It came up on my race search for turf routes. By the time I get to about the 5th runner ... "nope, nope, nope". Look what happened.
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Old 03-24-2019, 01:20 PM   #28
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GP race 4 3/24/19

This one is a real tough one because of the conditions.
Nonwinners of a race on the turf in six months

I was wondering if anyone played this one

Here are my notes

GP RACE 4 5.0 T 4+
CL N1-6m FM who have not won a race on the turf since Sept 30

Horse 1 She won on the turf as a 2-year-old twice but has never hit the board
against older

Horse 2 Just missed last November, Placed at GPW Comes back after a 121 day lay off

Horse 3 She won at Belmont at 6 furlongs on the turf last July
She has not hit the board in two races at GP

Horse 4 She last won o the turf last Aug 22 She has not hit the board since
going 0 for 7

Horse 5 She last won 360 days ago at GP at 5 furlongs in a CL16
She has not hit the board since that win going 0 for 6

Horse 6 She won back to back turf sprints at 5 furlongs at CBY
she is 0 for 2 at GP this meet missing the board both times

Horse 7 She has been hitting the board almost every race at PID
Today is her first try at GP Her last win was at PID in a 25 claimer
interestingly at the cut off day Sept 26th She does not show any turf races

Horse 8 She last won on the turf at WO on Aug 31 at 6.5 furlongs
in a 20 Claimer N2-L She has run on the turf since Today his her
first race on the turf and at GP
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Old 03-24-2019, 02:13 PM   #29
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Picks

Because of the many questions I only used race 4 in my pick 4

I used the 3 and 6

I used the 5 6 7 on top in a .10 super
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Old 03-24-2019, 03:07 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Because of the many questions I only used race 4 in my pick 4

I used the 3 and 6

I used the 5 6 7 on top in a .10 super
The 6 wins The 7 placed but was closing fast
I used the 5 and 8 for 3rd and 4th

My $1.20 ticket paid $23.77

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-24-2019 at 03:21 PM.
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