Saratoga, Saturday 8/21 - Pace and Cap

clore1030 · 08-21-2010, 03:02 PM

The fifth race is an interesting one at 9 Furlongs. I've had my best hits at the Spa at this distance, the #1 Total Energy horse has been winning at a 60% clip.

That makes the choice Slevin in this race, and at 12/1, I can't resist.

clore1030 · 08-21-2010, 05:34 PM

I feel like Lloyd Bridges in AIRPLANE:

"Looks like I picked the wrong day to bet against Johnny V."

The 4 and 6 show up better in the 10th on the BL scale than does the 1/4 chalk Devil May Care. But I've no model for the 10 furlong distance and the chalk still finds the others lacking when it comes to the lead turning for home.

clore1030 · 08-21-2010, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clore1030

The 4 and 6 show up better in the 10th on the BL scale than does the 1/4 chalk Devil May Care. But I've no model for the 10 furlong distance and the chalk still finds the others lacking when it comes to the lead turning for home.

Whaddya know - the 4 and 6 made up the exacta. I made dinner, passed on the race.

For The Lead · 08-21-2010, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clore1030

The fifth race is an interesting one at 9 Furlongs. I've had my best hits at the Spa at this distance, the #1 Total Energy horse has been winning at a 60% clip.

That makes the choice Slevin in this race, and at 12/1, I can't resist.

If all you are looking at is running lines and times, this horse doesn't look bad.

Unfortunately for this horse,it is a "NY BRED" that has been running just about exclusively against other "NY BREDS".

Unfortunately for this horse, this field is considerably better than a field of "NY BREDS".

clore1030 · 08-21-2010, 06:45 PM

I tend to be a bit more flexible now, but for many years I would not bet a state-bred in open company. In fact, I avoided races limited to just state-breds entirely. I used to refer to them as stink-breds.

I noticed his birthplace and his history, and just went for Slevin based upon my model. Fortunately for me, Saratoga is not a place where I go for prime bets as historically I find it too full of additional variables owing to the quantity of shippers. The meet is three weeks old and I've made only seven wagers now, hitting on three of them. All three were 9 furlong races, so today I just went with what's working for me.

dlivery · 08-21-2010, 08:25 PM

Taking stand is what it is all about as this one of the Hat's Sayings if it comes up to bite you so be it.

clore1030 · 08-21-2010, 11:18 PM

I've read in the Follow Ups of how horses don't discuss their birthplaces or their claiming prices. I just tend to let my model do the work and don't try to squeeze a play where there really isn't one. I look for a price and just bet one horse. Had the price on the 4 in the feature been a bit higher, 5/2 or more, I would have gone for it. I won't accept less.

08-21-2010, 08:25 PM	#6
dlivery Grade 1 Join Date: May 2009 Location: Thornhill ON Posts: 437	Taking A Stand Taking stand is what it is all about as this one of the Hat's Sayings if it comes up to bite you so be it. __________________ May all wagers be Winners...

08-21-2010, 03:02 PM	#1
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	Saratoga, Saturday 8/21 The fifth race is an interesting one at 9 Furlongs. I've had my best hits at the Spa at this distance, the #1 Total Energy horse has been winning at a 60% clip. That makes the choice Slevin in this race, and at 12/1, I can't resist.

08-21-2010, 05:34 PM	#2
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	I feel like Lloyd Bridges in AIRPLANE: "Looks like I picked the wrong day to bet against Johnny V." The 4 and 6 show up better in the 10th on the BL scale than does the 1/4 chalk Devil May Care. But I've no model for the 10 furlong distance and the chalk still finds the others lacking when it comes to the lead turning for home.

08-21-2010, 06:45 PM	#5
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	I tend to be a bit more flexible now, but for many years I would not bet a state-bred in open company. In fact, I avoided races limited to just state-breds entirely. I used to refer to them as stink-breds. I noticed his birthplace and his history, and just went for Slevin based upon my model. Fortunately for me, Saratoga is not a place where I go for prime bets as historically I find it too full of additional variables owing to the quantity of shippers. The meet is three weeks old and I've made only seven wagers now, hitting on three of them. All three were 9 furlong races, so today I just went with what's working for me.

08-21-2010, 11:18 PM	#7
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	I've read in the Follow Ups of how horses don't discuss their birthplaces or their claiming prices. I just tend to let my model do the work and don't try to squeeze a play where there really isn't one. I look for a price and just bet one horse. Had the price on the 4 in the feature been a bit higher, 5/2 or more, I would have gone for it. I won't accept less.