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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 09-06-2021, 07:33 PM   #11
Mitch44
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One of the problems with Second Call is its dependent on the pace lines you pick, which was from a previous Match UP of that race the line was taken from. Todays Match Up will determine the SC beaten lengths behind. That's like saying off pace type horses can never win. The other problem is that there's no Impact % to go with it. In others words 4 or 5 horses can be within the BL perimeter. If it were just one or two we could go to the Bank.

I don't keep or use Models, Track Profiles, SC beaten lengths, a large Data Base, Visual ESP, CR+, Tote X Ray, Segment Screen, Secondary Factors Line Score (Their called Secondary for a reason), Track Master Speed Rating, or their RC. I may have left a few out here. None of it effects my winning ability. Bottom line is all adjustments and fore mention stuff are within the Match Up and represented in V/DC.

New Members and those returning should read my thread; Beginners and Refresher Course." Also read FU # 80 page 12 article by Sartin titled; "Factors Altered by Time."
Sartin nails what factors should be ignored, due to a much improved Match Up.

Balance also has been altered by small fields and better contender selection techniques. Balance is another which is contained within the Match UP in a much more concise and accurate way.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 09-06-2021 at 07:36 PM.
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Old 09-07-2021, 07:30 AM   #12
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
At one time Sartin was putting in all horses and that's what we did back around 1990. He than advocated scratching from the lowest Total Energy or TPR to the top 5. His theory was that Tot. En. was class. Most winners do come from the top 3 and decline thereafter.

So during that era Balance was a great tool to eliminate horses. Keep in mind that Balance rankings are another way to view pace, whether Total or TPR, just broken down to two parts in EP & LP or you can say E/EP & L /EP. Actually E/EP & L/EP is better , trying to keep it simple here. Essentially just a form of TPR which most can comprehend due to its simplicity here and its rankings. This is about as de-complicated as it can be made.



Bottom line is forget about Balance, the game has changed and with proper contenders its effectiveness is over. If Sartin were alive today he would cast it in the pile of no longer effective, along with Models, track Profiles

Mitch44
Mitch,

Your comments regarding Balance reminds me of one of my first correspondence with Ted, when I first joined 10 years ago.

In today's small fields, it is not an effective tool...
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Old 09-07-2021, 05:00 PM   #13
gentz
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What was the average win price for the 12% winners?
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Old 09-08-2021, 02:13 PM   #14
Lt1
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Hi Gentz, I didn't keep a record of win prices since I was only interested in how many would win.
Tim
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