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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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07-25-2020, 11:34 AM | #41 | |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 13
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Quote:
Also So I'm 62(7 cards) races into my paper betting. I started keeping track once I felt like I had a basic handle of the system and software. I'm still going through the following ups. Think I'm on 77 right now. I did some number crunching this morning and here is what I've got. 62 races handicapped 21(34%) Winners 22(36%) Losers 19(31%) Passed I'm doing the $2 Win bets on two horses(a couple times I've thrown in exacta/3 horses) Total bet $182. Total return $269.8 for ROI of 1.48. I'm pretty excited about that! BUT. Most of the ROI is from 2 highly profitable cards. 5 winning cards (3 of which were basically break even, 1 of those if it were not for winning 3 of last 4 would have been ugly) 2 losing cards. So I know its my money and I got to do what I decide to do. But in your opinions should I keep doing some paper bets to work on consistency or go ahead and jump in. 4 of the cards were with the example databases and 3 were working along with live races. In the live races I would have bet 44 and returned 48. With 2 losing cards and the one I salvaged with 3 of last 4. I think I probably just answered my own question. Haha. |
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07-25-2020, 12:04 PM | #42 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Kev:
Horses run slower paces in route races and cutting back in distance it can run faster. Sartin had a couple formulas for this, one appeared in the original Pace Line manual and later came he came up with another. I generally use the latter one He said to adjust each Fraction by -2/5th faster and cut the beaten lengths in half. Many forget about the beaten lengths in this. To simplify this a horse is leading at 6F (second call) in a route run in 1:12.0, you deduct 6/ 5th's. E.g. on lead in a route ran in 112:0 the adjustment would be minus 6/5ths or 1 second plus 1/5 which = 110.4 or 110.80(hundreds). Than compared that to the other contenders to see if it can be competitive, if not it gets tossed. This is handled by the program, a more simplified way to do is to pick the route line with the fastest internal time. I use both techniques. Keep in mind that Sartin said; " Its more accurate to extract that to project." The reason is two fold; 1. with extractions the horse has actually ran that fast and 2. because of the deceleration factor projecting is a crapshoot or hap hazard at best. Horses don't neatly run according to "Sartin Downs". No one can predict where that deceleration will take place. Horses that can win at 8F get beat at 1/116 which is why races are carded by different distances to give every horse a chance of winning. There are ways to get a rough idea but it is by no means completely accurate. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-25-2020 at 12:06 PM. |
07-25-2020, 01:21 PM | #43 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Kev:
I would say go ahead and go for it, reason being 3 or 4 years or plus you'll still be learning about Sartin. So at what point is the right point? Go for it, do post mortems on your loses to learn. Start off small and make larger bets with winnings after each cycle. Manage your money. There are those that never get all this and give it up, myself the knowledge came after many years to really understand Sartin material. His material isn't an easy read and in many cases his writing doesn't follow a logical sequence. We also tend to make it harder than it really is. Some just are quitters while the most fail to accept new ideas. Without an open mind your doomed from the start, far too many are not adaptable and tend to reside in the past. Get rid of the baggage and keep an open mind. BLBL is there isn't a lot of instant gratification with Sartin concepts etc. The present RDSS far exceeds past techniques etc. Its about as fast tracked as it can get, all these figures initially were done by hand with a calculator. That did give a foundation of understanding, now some just see numbers or ranking but can't grasp them. Those old timers seem to do much better and are winners, they benefit greatly from that apprenticeship they served. They also tend to be the winners on this site, such as LT1, Richie Mathie, Richie P., Ted, Bill V. who is no longer with us, etc. Its human nature not to try new things because of failure, jump in. Jumping in here isn't like not being able to swim and being thrown into a pool. This won't kill you. Go for it. Mitch44 |
07-25-2020, 03:43 PM | #44 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 13
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Thanks Mitch for the encouragement. I'm doing Saratoga today. Question about DTV
I'll have to figure out how to post pictures. I'll describe. So I'm down to my top 5 contenders. 4 of the have a -1 DTV and one of them has a +18 DTV. How do I interpret the large spread in those numbers? Or is it not a big deal. |
07-25-2020, 04:45 PM | #45 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Quote:
Let the program do the equalization, once you've decided that particular line is best for that horse. This is how sometimes longer priced horses get elevated into consideration, for Win or for verticals: it looks slow, but only because EVERY runner from that day's same distance structure and surface's races ran slow. Put that horse on a faster inherent surface and see how he compares to the others with +-1 DTV. Again, my 2 cents! Good luck. Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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07-25-2020, 05:58 PM | #46 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I agree with Ted Kev. ,that is if your settings are set at -15 & +15.
The program will adjust any variant, therefore I like to view it as compared to my other contenders and in this case it appears out of the norm as compared to other contenders. It may be legit and than again it may not.There is no harm at looking for another line due to the fact it is aberrant as compared to your other contenders. Many times a horse will come up by using more than one line. If it doesn't have another line than just trust the program. As Ted said the program should handle this situation. The program has a safety feature built in by Sartin studies of using only 50% of the adjustment, earlier programs used 100% and in most cases made a horse a real contender when it wasn't. Mitch44 |
10-24-2020, 10:33 PM | #47 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Oct 2020
Posts: 36
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Hi there,
I'm new to the forum and have only been using RDSS a couple of days now. I had what I'd call success on my first day. Then I went back and read the glossary and I have a few more questions. After assembling races, what preparation steps are performed that would need to be reversed? I hadn't assembled anything the first time. Now I know why the races are highlighted in blue. I only noticed that the FTS column is updated. Is it possible to include scratches in the assembling process? Is there a way to change the browser that automatically opens within the software? Were the Results and Profit Line Tabs removed from the Race Card Summary screen? Should a 00 Horse's RS only be changed if it has a right-pointing arrow and underline rank? The 5 horse in BEL Race 2 today showed 00s for F1, SC and Fin, but its RS was a P. Should it have been changed to an E? Also, how are images without a URL added to a post? I wanted to insert a picture of the Segment screen. Kisha |
10-25-2020, 12:22 PM | #48 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Hi Kisha, and welcome! Here are some replies:
Quote:
Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-25-2020, 09:35 PM | #49 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Oct 2020
Posts: 36
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Thanks Ted for answering my questions and going into more detail. The energy distribution is a new factor for me (as is quite a few of the other factors). I don't know why I thought I could handle 4 tracks. I tried to "analyze" various factors (SR, RC, CSR, Best 2 Early and Best 2 Late). I also tried to look at the APV% and ITM. I also thought that CR could be used to determine value or ITM. All I know is, I just looked at 2 tracks today (Belmont and CD).
Software question - On some cards, the Win and ITM columns are automatically checked. If nothing is checked, does that mean the assembly process did not find a contender or ITM horse? Kisha |
10-25-2020, 10:37 PM | #50 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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For the past year I have been only looking at the races involved in the P-6 at GP, GPW and a few other tracks.
I was curious to see if the 4 Factors ( VDC, CSR, PL and Prime Power )could be applied to these types of races, with all the different types of races with any success. What I found was surprising, considering the number of Turf races and Maiden races involved in these races. I have 900 races or 150 P-6s. In 38 of the 150 the winner had no rating of 5 or lower in CSR-PL or PP.25%. These 3 ratings will be the same for everyone. VDC on the other hand is dependant on your paceline selection method. Using these 3 ratings to find the main contenders will get you the main contenders 75% of the time. The process of writing up of affordadble tickets is left upto each individual based on your bankroll. If anyone would like to discuss these findings feel free to contact me. Rmath |
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