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May - Practice Start a new Thread with your User Name - practice making Contest selections and posting your screenshot and decision explanation |
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05-26-2012, 08:12 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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Barb Craven - My Practice Selections
This is from yesterday just after I found out about the practice week.
I keep my configuration on the defaults except for using DVT range of+/-15. I then put in the automatic PSS best of the last 3 perceptor, then I checked each horse to be sure I had the right line selected using the adjusted screen and checked the workouts if it is a lightly raced horse although in this race at Parx the horses are racing continuously. I then eliminated down to the the top 5 BL/BL using the primary screen. Then, as this is a sprint I started looking at the POH screen for the horses with the best 2nd fraction and second call, which was the #2 and as this is a longer sprint I looked for the horse with the best deceleration which was the #5. Then I moved to the energy screen looking for the best E/EP, again the #2, with the #5 having the best Hidden and TPP. then on to the BL/BL. For me tier 3 wins more times than not. As #5 was #1 BL/BL with lots of red and a good price, he was of course my first bet, with the #2 as my second. If this was the contest I would have put $50 on the #5 and #2. Today I will post a route in advance, but I wanted to show how I pick a sprint.
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05-26-2012, 10:14 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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Sorry, should have posted the outcome.
#2 wins for $15.60 Bet $100, return $390 $2000-$100+$390 = $2290 I actually bet this yesterday, with both the 2 and 5 in an exacta which paid $107
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05-26-2012, 10:20 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Excellent
Thank You Barb
You did a fantastic job, with the screen shots, the workup and the reporting of the results. and cashing the winning tickets good skill to you Bill PS I miss Parx |
05-26-2012, 10:47 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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Thank you
It's there for the taking Bill. It's been paying well lately. I also won the 9th, a 7.5 T that was taken off the turf and lengthened to a mile. I can post that too if you want me to.
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05-26-2012, 11:47 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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practice prx 0526r3
Fields are smaller at Prx today and so are some prices. Race 3. Same parameters as before.
Horse 2, I changed the line from 2 to 1 because I don't like using 5.5 lines for a route. Horse 3 - I don't like using a line 222 days ago, but the horse had been working out, the last 3 being at 5f. Horse 7 - I try to keep the line picked to 90 days, but this one had worked out 6 days ago, so I used line 2. All screens clearly show #5 and #4 as the horses to beat, but I don't like the odds. BL/BL shows #7 as #2 Hid and LPR and DCL and he is a closer. I'll bet $25 to win on #5,$50 to win on #7 and $25 to place on #7.
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05-26-2012, 01:17 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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My Bad
Sorry about that. I was playing this morning with both the 25th and the 26 and posted Race 3 for yesterday instead of today (which I lost). I will now do race 5 for today.
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05-28-2012, 07:58 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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I neglected to say that my parameters are the same for all routes at the moment, then choose to bet when I see the odds at 2 MTP. I understand Bill is still considering whether you can change your bets if you post early and by race time the odds fall below a certain limit. My real bets would not be on my first choices if they drop below 2.5. I would probably put more on place of second choice.
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05-28-2012, 11:01 AM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi Barb
I have made a decision on allowing conditional wagering
I just need to word it correctly I will have something soon Good Skill |
05-28-2012, 11:41 AM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Reply
Hi Barb
Lets say you post The following .... : I then choose to bet when I see the odds at 2 MTP. I understand Bill is still considering whether you can change your bets if you post early and by race time the odds fall below a certain limit. My real bets would not be on my first choices if they drop below 2.5. I would probably put more on place of second choice. Here are my issues 1. If in each and every one of your post it is clearly comminicated as exactly what you want to happen, I can make changes HOWEVER: Any adjustments that need to be made will based on FINAL ODSS There is no way I can know what the odds on a horse were at 2 minutes to post 2. This contest does not decide for you to bet on a pre picked race. Each poster could be able to edit picks right up to post time provided it is within the allowed edit time available on pace and cap 3. I do not recommend changing selections based on going off odds, for the following reason Lets say you instruct me to change a bet if if falls below 5/2 Your selections are horse AAA and BBB, you bet $50 to win on each horse, at 2 minutes to post AAA is 3/1 at 1 minute to post AAA is at 5/2 some late money comes in on AAA AAA wins the race ! When I see the official tote final odds AAA ended up going off at 2.40 to 1 it payed 6.80 You posted that if my horse falls below 5/2 - no bet lets look You bet $50 - $6.80 x 25 = $170 if AAA went off at 5/2 and pays 7.00 You bet $50 = $7.00 x 25 = $175 You just cost your bankroll $120 profit because of a .20 cent "tick" drop of the tote board My suggestions Post races were you have the chance to watch the board live or since you know the danger involved Bet horses with morning line odd at tracks with little or no scratches that assure the chances they will not get bet down below your desired amount Again if you go the conditional bet route remember I will score based on FINAL ODSS only comments and help on this subject welcome Nothing is final till June 1 Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 05-28-2012 at 11:50 AM. |
05-28-2012, 05:30 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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Hi Bill, thanks for your reply.
1. Agreed. I only put 2 MPT as a supposition. 0 MPT is of course the only sane way to go. Instructions as to what a person would want to happen if a horse was scratched, falls below acceptable odds or if a Turf race was taken off the turf would have to be absolutely explicit. 2. I know this; but I have certain tracks I like to play. I don't think I'm alone in saying that when I'm working a race, if I stop to do something else, like change a post because conditions change, I lose my concentration, and a lot of times the race. I know there are a lot out there who can do both, but I can't and I recognize it. That's why I asked about question 1. 3. Maybe my thinking is different, but if horse A falls below acceptable odds and horse B has higher odds, I would rather take the money from horse A and put it on a Place on horse B, which would be in my explicit instructions as per issue #1. This my current style of betting and if we are to put up the way we do things, shouldn't it reflect how each of us that enters the contest works and bets a race? A good example was today's Prx 7. (not in my pick for today, but one I played). The winner, #1, paid $5.40, the place, #4, paid $11.60. If I had posted the #1 and #4 to win with no instructions to change to a place on #4 if the odds on #1 fell below what is acceptable to me, my bankroll would not have risen as much. Just my thoughts Bill. You are running the contest and have the most work to do.
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