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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 03-27-2017, 11:18 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Join Date: Dec 2010
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Reflecting on my month with the Methodology

I've been on P&C for a few years now, and have been an on/off subscriber of RDSS. When I decided to "re-up" if you will last month, I decided that I was going to commit myself to finally using RDSS "the right way" - and by that, I mean choosing MY OWN lines instead of depending on a default strategy (which can work IF you put your OWN thinking into that too, some of those line selections may not be comparable due to factors).

Bankroll was a factor in starting up. In a perfect world, I would have $500-$1000 to the side. Unfortunately, life doesn't always work that way when you have a family and have to take care of bills and groceries, etc. Nevertheless, I took a $20 deposit (which is absolutely NOT an optimal strategy) and decided to make a go of it at Tampa.

March 1st, My first wager ($14 in Win dutches), netted me a $16.40 profit. Ok, we have something going here. Next wager, $6 in Dutch bets, nets a $10.80 profit. Two races, up $27.20. Life is good.

Next day, I find a single race from Gulfstream. Again, $15 in Win Dutch bets. A price horse off hiding the chalk gets home, and my profit for the day is $29. Through Day 2, the account is up $56.20. Not bad for an initial $20 outlay.

Day 3, I choose 3 races at Gulfstream. 1st race, a $20 dutch nets a $20.80 total profit. Race 5, a 3-horse Dutch totalling $24 nets a $38.40 profit. Hot hand. Race 11 sees me take my first "whiff". Still a black day, $39.20 to the good. Overall, the account is up $95.40 heading into the weekend.

Day 4 was my first losing day. I played 8 races total from different tracks (Gulf, Tampa, Sam Houston, Delta, Santa Anita). While I did have a few cashes, the account took a $41.50 swing in the wrong direction.

Sunday (Day 5), I select two races at Tampa. This was in my opinion, a killing. Race 1, I fall in love with a single horse. Instead of a Dutch, I bet it straight up for $10. Horse wins at an $11.20 mutuel and through 1 race, up $46. Then, it happens: I hide a chalk and make a $20 Dutch with two mid pricers. A $12.50 price on a $12 wager nets a $55 race profit, a $101.60 day profit and a $155.50 total account profit after 15 races in 5 days. Walking on air.

Two losing days playing 3 early Parx races soon follow, swinging the bankroll down $28. It happens. I get back into stride that Wednesday at Tampa, albeit modestly. I profit $32.80 on a 2-horse $20 total win Dutch before a 2nd similar Dutch ends in a whiff. $12.80 profit is still a profit for the day.

I then end my initial 20-race bow in style. I do a $5 Dutch in a turfer that I have reservations about and collect a Mark Casse bomb off the bench to the tune of $30.60. After a small whiff at Oaklawn, I conclude the cycle with an $11 profit betting two horses at a Gulfstream.

The results of this 20-race cycle: $374 wagered, $544.90 returned. $1.46 ROI. A profit of $170.90 off an initial $20 deposit. This was a massive success. And there would be more to come... or so I thought. Part 2 next.
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Old 03-27-2017, 11:41 AM   #2
noddub62
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Good job Jeebs.

Budman
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Old 03-27-2017, 11:42 AM   #3
Jeebs
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Part 2

My first races after the initial 20-race cycle prove to be modest. I bet 3 races from Tampa, have the misfortune of a win turn into a loss when my price horse dead heats with heavy chalk, cannibalizing my price. A 5/2 winner later on, whom I bet $8 out of a $12 Dutch on, cuts the losses big time. Down $4.70 for the day.

Saturday, I find 7 races to play and subsequently take it on the chin at both Tampa and Santa Anita. Late races from Delta and Charles Town save my hide as the day ends up $16.20.

Sunday was a day of rest. Monday, back at it. 3 races, 1 at Parx and 2 at Sam Houston. The Parx race nets me $14.80, while a $25 Dutch in the first at Hou nets $21.20. I escalate the stake to a $30 Dutch in Race 2 that whiffs. $6 total profit.

Tuesday was the storm of the year, so I play 3 races from Turf Paradise (Twinspires comped $10 as a promo too, so why not!) All whiffs. Down $43.

Wednesday, I wager 4 races from Tampa and Gulf. After sneaking a bet in before the bell and then getting shut out on escalating, a Gulf race ends with a $2.60 profit. Then BOOM! A 2-horse Dutch for $20 total lands a $16.40 horse for a $62 killing. The other two races were whiffs, but we made up for the Turf losses with a $44.60 day.

This would conclude a 2nd 20-race cycle. $346 in wagers, $366.10 in winnings. Profit of $20.10. ROI $1.06. Still a profitable cycle. However, a noticeable downturn from the previous 20 races. Part 3 next.
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:05 PM   #4
Jeebs
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Part 3

Thursday 3/16 proved to be a losing day. 2 races and a $35 loss. Then, to gain full advantage of the Dutch tool at Amwager (I have an NHPlay account I seldom use since I don't typically deposit a lot), I withdraw all my Twinspires funds and deposit into NHPlay.

Nevertheless, 3/17 saw action on 7 races, from Tampa, Aqueduct and Charles Town. After some early bleeding, a $30.60 shocker from Tampa sends the account back from the dead, only to give it back. However, the loss was minute, $3.10 in the red. An ill-advised harness (yes, I played a harness race) bet from the Meadowlands that I won't count as part of the cycle, turned a $3.10 loss into a $21.10 loss. I felt very guilty doing that.

Saturday, I kept my action to Tampa Bay, as I had prior engagements later on. A tiny $5 Dutch netted a $36.40 longshot and some timely win wagers on 8/5 favorites netted a 4-race, $34.80 profit.

Sunday was limited to 4 races, and in my opinion, may have marked a turning point. I played early races from Gulf, which saw me make the killing based on ignoring a faulty DTV (see that thread for more details). I ended up $32 through those races. Then, I made a decision to play two races (1 at Tampa, 1 at Santa Anita) on my breaks at work. I would lose to a horse going to turf from dirt at Tampa and a painful photo at a number at Santa. A winning day turned into a $21 loss after the Santa race.

2 races at Parx the next day produced a $30 goose egg.

2 races at Parx the day after produced a $20 goose egg.

I didn't do the math, but this was clearly a losing 20-race spell.

Part 4 and a reflection next.
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:48 PM   #5
Jeebs
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Part 4/Epilogue

Wednesday 3/22 would be a pretty even day. 4 races bet. A couple of Win bets at Tampa and Gulfstream came through in my favor to turn the tables somewhat. Alas, it was a $3.50 day to the good.

Thursday, I decided an off day was needed. I clearly had hit skids. I also withdrew from NHPlay and back into Twinspires as the new AmWager interface kept having issues. I'm clearly more comfortable with Twinspires. I built an Excel dutching calculator for my usage to make the Dutch decisions and ROI. Plus, Oaklawn and Louisiana tracks not available on AmWager.

Friday, back in action. 7 races from Gulfstream, Tampa and Oaklawn. Despite some timely win dutches at Tampa, the Tampa portion was not profitable. Unfortunately, those "timely" wins would be the only cashes anywhere on this day. A $29.60 loss. The account is hemmoraging now.

Saturday saw action all over. Multi-tracking from Dubai (where a Place wager on Arrogate proved to be marginally profitable), Gulfstream, Tampa, Oaklawn, Santa Anita, Turfway and Turf Paradise saw me wager on 15 total races. It was an up/down day. At the end, $229 in bets saw a slight $9 loss. This would pale in comparison to Sunday.

5 tracks, Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Tampa and Sunland. 13 races bet. Early success at Oaklawn and Santa Anita was not sustainable. A win Dutch at a Tampa would net a $44.60 profit, but after missing the bell at Santa for a wager against a heavy favorite (the horse I missed the bell on romped at 3-1 odds), I literally went into destruction mode. Down to $52 and change, I did something out of character. I went "all-in" with a horse that seemed to have an edge at Sunland. Had I followed FTL's guidelines, I may have passed this race, as there were layoff types and horses stretching out with no recent two turn form. Instead, I made the push and watched as a Pletcher shipper ganged up on my horse, watched it fade and one of the Sunland locals made a late move to catch the Pletcher shipper. The 26 day ride was over.

Epilogue:
This weekend was an example of why multi-tracking is a horrible approach (for me). Trying to concentrate on multiple racetracks is tough. I tip my hat to those that can pull it off. Going through my journey, I am seeing how focusing attention on a couple of races rather than several, worked out better. I wasn't rushing my process, trying to force horses off the computer. The race was jumping out at me. This weekend was also an example of how FTL's guidelines - as conservative as they are (my opinion) - can save one from a world of hurt while multi-tracking. Yes, the occasional long layoff comebacker will win as will the occasional 20-1/30-1 ML horse. However, as his database suggests, it will narrow the scope down to the real contenders as well as point to races that should be passed. An Oaklawn race where I narrowed the field down to 5 horses, 2 were 20-1 ML. I hid a horse that appeared to have not much of an edge and kept the bombs and a horse at shorter odds. The hide won and the bomb, while thrilling me until the final 1/16th, faded. If I hide the bombers, I hit the race dutching 3 horses. These are decisions you have to live with. Of course, had the bomber wired the field, this example would be moot. Nonetheless, there is clearly validity there.

Bankroll pressure: as it was starting with $20, I was wagering too much from the outset and even when the account topped off just shy of $300, $10-20 a race was probably still too much. When things went south, $10-20 a race was definitely too much. I've said numerous times, there is a variance factor in all games of chance. Success is sustainable, but tough times are inevitable and the best players with the best discipline can ride the tough times out by cutting wagers back or taking multiple days off. The game is never ending. You can put it away and resume fresh a couple of days later.

Race selection: Mitch and others have commented on the races I pick. Granted not the best for handicapping, but with my work schedule, typically the only races available. As FTL has suggested, finding playable races takes skill. I am still learning that.

Process: My proudest takeaway. I have a structure which is dependable and consistent race to race. Again, I need to focus on working with the horses that are somewhat recent and are not huge ML, but I have faith in my process.

20-race cycles: I strayed a bit after the first one. In fact, the only reason I knew my status of the 2nd one was by going through my account summaries today. I need to chart religiously these cycles.

Modeling/Profiling: I didn't do either. Perhaps a fatal flaw hurting me. Some races would show a 3rd tier BL/BL as tops in Rx and vice-versa. I got in trouble a few times mixing usage between those tier methods. I chose to stick with BL/BL after that to keep consistent. That being said, I need to test which one works best for me and stick with it. Also, Keith is an advocate of track profiles. It can definitely help when making final decisions regarding horses ranked near the bottom or bottom tiers whether they stay or go.

I hope you enjoyed my journey. I am sure that there will be comments and suggestions. I am open to all feedback. I want to thank everyone for their feedback the past month. It is valuable and I take it to heart. This isn't the end but rather a beginning for me with the Methodology.

-Jeebs (Tim)
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Old 03-27-2017, 01:22 PM   #6
Lt1
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HI Tim. I've been a member of the Methodology since 1990 and still confine my play to one track per day so don't worry if that's what you end up doing. I have found by restricting play to races for 3 & up on the dirt I do very well. I will play some mdns and turf but only those with no more than 1 unknown factor. Parx, MVR, TDN FL and OP card most of the races I play. I also look at Tampa when weather in the East is iffy. I keep both a model and profile for the tracks I play which prove very helpful. You make a good point in that you must decide whether to use BL/BL or RX. Record keeping will make that decision for you. Based on what I've seen in your post and videos it appears your on solid ground. Take your time you will get there.
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Old 03-27-2017, 02:03 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Multi track

Hi Jeebs

I am sorry you went to a bad streak, Finding your comfort zone in all aspects of this game is a must, You went back to a betting site you feel more comfortable with, This is good,
I don't know for sure but It seems like you were finding races that fit your schedule,
You were betting into available races, rather than races you fully understood, and that your records support,

Multi track wagering has its benefits but so does focusing on 1 or 2 tracks.
I think you see the flaw in multi track wagering , you might pop in at a down cycle,
Betting only 1 or 2 tracks and looking for races that your records say are potentially
good opportunities is my suggestion

RX or BL BL

I do best when I hone in on in one set of read outs,
For me this is phase 1 and VDC, I use RX as a tie breaker, I'm not saying this is the best way , but its the way I do best.
I am not knocking R x I want to keep my real focus on only a very limited sets of read outs , if my top TPR / VDC horses are acceptable odds , I'm able to bet them confidently,

Pace lines / contenders

You did a good recap of your wins and loses but you mention you varied in your pace line
criteria, Your goal should always be to have the pace line contender aspect of your game the most consistent part,
Any records will be useless if your pace line / contender selection methods change during you recordings,

BETTING


If it become hard for you to be selective in what race to bet because of family and work restraints , I suggest you use some of the other available pools
Mitch is the one to follow , look at all the ways you can profit not just 2 horse win bets

Good Skill
Bill
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:03 PM   #8
The Pook
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First of all Jeebs thanks for the entertainment. You have a way of expressing yourself and an enthusiasm that is fun to read.

Seems to me you know your handicapping pretty well. You were lucky to run the pool up right off. Then you were betting too high a percentage of what you had which affects the psyche.

Take your time, recoup, come back to it. Do that a few times and most likely you will get the betting part ironed out.

Be patient.

Pook
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:19 PM   #9
Mitch44
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Jeebs: I suppose you can say its growing pains.Glad to see you can give yourself an honest appraisal.That's important because bad habits can quickly become difficult to overcome, once they become ingrained.

Your absolutely correct about using automatic picked pace lines. While I use the best of last 3 at a similar distance & surface I review every horses record to see if I concur with the line it chooses. I suggest everyone do that because on auto pick it'll count to 3 back and if one of those races isn't on a similar surface or distance the correct line may be L 4 or L 5 . I've seen L 8 & L 10 be the correct line however not that often but this does occur. When it does I have no aversion to using it.

I notice you do poorly during your lunch break and the reason is your rushing due to time restraints. I would forget that. Also stick to one track because you don't do well playing multiple track. Additionally by playing multiple track your giving up some good plays such as rolling doubles.

These ugly races you play are getable however not as form full as better races such as ones with higher purses. I play them all but reduce my wagers with iffy races or ugly type races. Remember to cap them the same way as other races. Consistent procedures.

Try a track with some rolling DD and also play some better races later in the card. Granted odds may work for you just as well as against you. Just bet according to the M/L and to your selections. Worth a try. As far as ugly races many of the same decisions occur as in the good races. I.e. layoffs, stretch outs and cutback etc. etc. etc.

Myself I play many different tracks, therefore I don't keep track profiles and through records I know what works so I also don't keep models. However if I only played one track I would keep a profile. I'm a firm believer in what the Doc" & the "Hat" believed in with, 80% has to due with the make up of the field etc.,not the track etc. But for someone starting off like you I would recommend only 1 track and keep a profile and model.

Lastly don't let one cycle get you down. If you manage your money properly you'll still have a bankroll for the next cycle. Don't chase and reduce bets when not in a good cycle.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-27-2017 at 04:31 PM.
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:51 PM   #10
Jeebs
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I appreciate both the honesty and encouragement. I will head back to the drawing board and this time, keep a more careful inventory of my play.

One thing I left out was my use and sometimes abuse of tandems. They are for sure, a major factor in my play. However, the power of the tandem is when you can "reverse" a previous winner or finisher who is getting bet to death while the finisher or finishers up close behind it are getting underbet. I cashed some nice tickets reversing but also lost some bets reversing horses who are good odds. Something for me to note when I start a new cycle.
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