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Old 09-25-2019, 11:36 AM   #1
partsnut
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Horizontal And Exotic Bets - My Opinion

Horizontal bets & the exotics are and have been, a house or suckers bet.
The excessive take-outs as exhibited in the attached PDF file demonstrate how much money comes out of your bet before it hits the board.
It lists all North American tracks.



Anyone with enough common sense will realize that these type of bets are destructive and will destroy your bankroll over the long run.
Making these type of bets are comparable to playing in a poker game where the dealer takes a 10% rake out of each pot. If you stay in the game long enough the house will get all the money.
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File Type: pdf Pari-Mutueal Racetracks.pdf (90.6 KB, 52 views)
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Last edited by Bill V.; 09-25-2019 at 11:16 PM. Reason: Negative assumptions on the opinions of the moderators
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Old 09-25-2019, 05:05 PM   #2
rdiam
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You are entitled to your opinion, but be aware that it is based on outdated and incorrect information:

To use your poker analogy, would you rather play in a game with no rake where everyone had better poker skills than you, or in a game with a 10% rake where you had better poker skill than everyone else at the table? Sure, you would win more in case 2 if the rake was below 10%, but you are likely to lose in case 1 with a zero rake.

Similarly, there are those on this board (Lt1 and Mitch44 come to mind), who show high proficiency at tracks like PARX with their relatively high takeout, even on win-place-show. As long as their average win % exceeds the win percentage implied by their average odds, they make a profit. In addition, the big rebate syndicates tend to stay away from the high takeouts, so there is less competition in the pools from "smart" money.

The only thing you should be concerned about regarding horizontal bets is whether a win parlay will pay more or less than the pick X. If the parlay pays less (you need to estimate this), you are better off with the horizontal bet since the higher takeout is spread out over multiple races. In addition, many tracks have actually cut the take on P5 to 15% or so, such that many sharp bettors consider this the best bet to make (if your bankroll can withstand the fluctuations).

Regarding verticals, you need to be able to eliminate enough combinations so that your win percentage exceeds the odds implied by your average payoff. The higher take makes it harder to do this, but not impossible.

To sum up, the size of the take (rake) determines only how difficult it is to be profitable making certain kinds of bets. Of course, the lower the better. But be careful what you ask for: a lower take invites the large rebate syndicates into the pool, which will cut your average odds and also make it more difficult to be profitable. And your chart does not include the horizontal bets that actually have a lower take than WPS. Bottom line, you should bet the pool or pools where you think you have an edge (see Betting with an Edge by Mike Maloney), and not focus on the take, which is only part of the equation to show a profit.

Richard
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Old 09-25-2019, 06:02 PM   #3
partsnut
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Richard,

From what I was led to believe these are 2019 tables. I would assume they are fairly accurate.
I don't think the possibility of any betting syndicate would be sophisticated enough to control the extremely low betting pools at PRX. Because of the low pools there is an overwhelming amount of bet down horses at that track that lose telling me that no meanful syndicate exists. However, the high take out remains constant and value is a non entity on horizontal and exotic bets.
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Old 09-25-2019, 06:12 PM   #4
Mitch44
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Richard I agree with your analysis 100%. The take is deceptive and it really depends on where one's expertise is located and that is determined by record keeping.

I'm more than willing to give up a little where my strike rate is much higher. I don't care if a track has a win takeout of 15% and all they card are MSW, 2 yr.olds, many 3 yr olds and a disproportionate amount of turf races. These are all high risk races and while I take pride in my ability to play any kind of race I do know from records that my strike rate will be lower. I would much rather play a track with a 17% take but where they card races where my strike rate is much higher in the type races they card there.

Ditto for a track that cards my type of races for DD etc. or P3 that aren't ruined by the MSW etc. type of races within the DD ,P3 etc. or type of races which tend to bring about ruin.

I would strongly suggest that everyone maintain records and find out just what kind of races you excel at and select a track that day or a track that within one's wheelhouse. Capitalize on your strengths or play to your strengths.

Essentially the take could be 5% but if you can't win the race its meaningless.

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Old 09-25-2019, 06:29 PM   #5
rdiam
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Parts:

Your attached list includes Hollywood Park and Atlantic City, neither of which have run in years, so I think it dated.

Richard
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Old 09-25-2019, 10:28 PM   #6
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Wink

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdiam View Post
Parts:

Your attached list includes Hollywood Park and Atlantic City, neither of which have run in years, so I think it dated.

Richard
I guess that because in most cases with a few exceptions the take-out is state wide. So I would have to guess the list was not updated by tracks with the exception of Florida and possibly some other states.

If horizontal betting works for you then I guess you don't have change what you are doing. However, I would be skeptical as to what your results are in the long term. What my left eye sees, my right eye will believe.
I guess horizontal betting and the exotics are good for those that can't pick a single horse winner of a race. They need two, three and multiple horse picks and still end up losing.
Show me your winning tickets as well as your losers.
I know, you have nothing to prove.
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Old 09-25-2019, 11:28 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Hi Mitch and Richard

For me, horizontals are a big boost to my bottom line. You guys bring up strong points.

Mitch now that 95% of my play is at SoCal tracks, Even with the simple daily double I am looking at mostly races which consist of maidens, 2-year-olds and an overload of turf first-time starters

Nobody is forced to bet any track. For me especially at Del Mar, the day in day out info I can gather does lead to being able to single.

Horizontals are my choice. If I have counter energy highly ranked horses
I will play exacta's

Thanks for your thoughts
Bill
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Old 09-26-2019, 06:51 AM   #8
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I agree Bill and I do much better at DD,P3 etc. than I do at Ex.as its much easier to pick winners than it is EX, SF etc.

With so many tracks running and simulcasting today its rather easy to peruse a track, see what your getting and to select a track that places the percentages in your favor. I recently played Finger Lakes and had a great day with very good prices. Players tend to ignore the smaller tracks in the world of simulcasting.

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Old 09-26-2019, 11:58 AM   #9
partsnut
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I guess we are all entitled to our opinions on wagering whether it be considered right or wrong.
For me, horizontal and exotic bets are non existent.


I would suggest you read this article by Ray Paulick.


https://www.paulickreport.com/news/r...he-wrong-path/
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