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Old 10-05-2019, 04:48 PM   #1
DaveEdwards
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Parx R8 - 5th Oct 2019

Hello everyone,

I thought I'd post the attachments for Race 8 at Parx today, won by number 4 Adventist.

I'm not trying to claim any special insights or certainly do what I believe in the US is called red boarding.
I'm merely showing that by using the last available line for each horse that you couldn't help but find this horse top rated in RDSS in a variety of screens.

As it was after time I thought I'd best post this in general and then it may be moved or not as anyone sees fit.

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Old 10-05-2019, 05:53 PM   #2
Lt1
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Hi Dave. The problem I have with that approach is that you end up projecting several horses anywhere from 2 to 4 fur. Another problem with that are 2 horses[including the winner are given lines with a 34 track var[not normal for Parx]. What I normally do in this long dists rts is to change the dist to 9f. [if I remember correctly Jimmy used 8f]. I have this works very well for me. Although my approach did not rank him high I did have the 4 as my longshot for the race[as posted at RX forum] and use it over and under in the ex with the 2 favs but messed up by not putting a w/p bet on him. Congrats to you for getting the horse on top for a very very nice win price and for sharing your info.
Tim
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Old 10-05-2019, 06:27 PM   #3
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Hi Tim,

Thank you.

I'm quite happy to admit that there was more than a little slice of luck with this. The pace for the first 2 furlongs was perhaps a little sharp, combined with the two favourites cutting each other throat towards the end. Couple this with the big leap of faith that the horse could actually get the extra distance, this was of course never going to be a certainty.

That said, at the price I couldn't resist. I'd like to say I had a massive bet on this, but that would be a lie!

I just thought it might provide a little food for thought.
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Old 10-05-2019, 06:30 PM   #4
Bill V.
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Not redboarding

Hello, my overseas pace and cap/Sartin fan
No problem at all I do not consider people who post screenshots (it is not that hard) and give detailed reasons and proof of a possible bomb paying mutual

Hey Tim Congrats on also scoping this one out


I focused on SA today

never looked at Parx but hit the race 3,4.5 Pick 3 for $232 for a $27 ticket
here is my $27 dollar tick as per Doc's recommendation 3 x 3 x 3

Name:  pick3.JPG
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Last edited by Bill V.; 10-05-2019 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 10-05-2019, 06:35 PM   #5
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Dave that's what this site is all about sharing ideas and helping each of us to hopefully learn some new ideas. Like Doc always said extracting is safe but projecting was only an educated guess no matter what program was being used. I wish I was paying more attention to the odds rather then the ex grid then maybe I would have made the play[most likely a $2 wp] but that's life. I'll take the ex money and smile.
Tim
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Old 10-05-2019, 06:43 PM   #6
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Nice job Bill. Parx had some nice exotic prices today but that $100 bomb from ST.Lewis was the topper. He's a low% trainer who puts over some big ones. He won a big GI in NY last yr I was going back and forth with DarMar[Darryl] on the inter net all day. We been teaming up pretty regularly lately and having a lot of fun[also making a few $$]. Be well my friend.
Tim
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Old 10-05-2019, 07:05 PM   #7
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Thanks Tim

Good to know your working with Darryl

Great dat so far at SA
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Old 10-05-2019, 07:31 PM   #8
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I be remiss if I didn't mention my good friends Mitch and Richie Mathie. Mitch is currently sending the monkeys money on his wonderful wife Irene so he taking time off. Mitch has always been a big factor in what success I've managed to have. Richie has been kind enough to share some info that he has developed and is currently testing I've bee honored to be allowed to help him test his idea. So far so good. Mitch don't forget to feed that monkey.Thanks guys.
Tim
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Old 10-06-2019, 02:35 AM   #9
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Thanks both

Cheers Bill,

I just wanted to check first. I always aim to try to keep my posting within the spirit of the forum. Well done on the Santa Anita hit. Knowing that Parx is one of your tracks I was wondering if you might have had a slice of that horse!

Thanks Tim,
Sorry, it was late last night when I was posting and didn't mention a well done on your exacta which dwarfed my win price!
I agree, with extraction you at least have raw data to work with. Projection on the other hand is getting into the realms of the crystal ball. Perhaps a breeding expert may have been able to shed some light on yesterday, but that isn't what this place is about and neither am I! That said, however, the algorithm for projection within RDSS managed to get there!

Have a nice day both
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