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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 02-25-2018, 06:30 AM   #1
Bill V.
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My day at the races - Using FTL's Guidelines

Saturday, Feb 24th 2018

Introduction

The basics of this test.

I have been studying FTL's post for many years.
I slowly have been adding more pieces of information to my pace line and contender selection process. During my recovery, while I was in the hospital
and home unable to do much else. I found my ability to pick pace lines
and contenders was almost gone.

Since I wanted to work races, but could not get the strength or stay alert,
I began to do races based on using the automatic paceline selection method
Best perceptor of last three comparable races
I did well, I modeled many races. I was on fully automatic when using RDSS
Once the lines were auto-selected by RDSS. I just went to the RX screen and bet the top two rated RX 3 horses This turned out to be a very solid method for working races.

I began to do many tests, using these methods. They worked well.
in fact very well - ON PAPER - that is just downloading all the cards every day and then recording the results from the result chart or just sending the files to an excel spreadsheet, The data in my models said that fully automatic would show a positive ROI.

Eventually, my strength and alertness have returned. I found I could do maybe two or 3 races a day like I always had using Phase 1.
but If I did those races I could do no more.

I need to work races to get extra money because my medical bills are crazy and I can no longer work. I am on disability.

I decided the only true test is to actually bet the races that I was recording
the data from. The number of races I could work slowly grew. I could do 5 then 10 then maybe 15. Yet there was no way I could do every race on every card every day.

This is the great illusion of making databases from result charts.
When we do we catch EVERY WINNER we catch those $50 plus horses
from racetracks we have never heard of, let alone play, We catch winners from races on off tracks, We catch winners in races that were taken off the turf.
We catch winners in races that have 1/5 horses that don't fire but look
ON PAPER like there is no way they can lose. We never get tired or have things going on in our life that disallows us to be at the right place at the right time.
I am sure you all know the feeling of working a card and losing the races we handicap. Then we get called away, Then when we return we see that the next few races on the same card had double-digit winners but we were unable to bet them.

And lastly, we can't bet every race from multiple tracks because tracks don't
take turns. Very often many tracks have races going on at the exact same time. How many times have we all been here, Track A gets all nice prices
but we are betting track B which is getting all chalk.

Knowing that reality is the best way to judge our skills, I decided to do
many tests for win and excatas. These tests were done live. I was just using the best of last 3 perceptor and betting the top 2 RX horse for win and top 4
for exactas.

My results were disasters in reality. I lost money almost every day.
What happened ?, Life happened.

So now we come to this day Saturday, Feb 24th. I decided that I would
have to go back to picking my lines myself and bet races for this test
live only No more blindly betting on automatic,

I believe that using FTL's guidelines is a very reliable method,
for me, It is almost like being on automatic, Each horse in every race, every card every day either meets the guidelines or they don't
This makes contenders limited to only horses that fit, If a horse does not
fit they do not win at a very high percentage so they are not serious win contenders
So big fields are easily narrowed down to maybe 5 horses, Often just 2, 3 or 4 horses and sometimes only 1 horse.

Now I thought just betting the top 2 RX3 horses of the FTL contender might be an option.
This is what I did on this day Saturday, Feb 24th I looked at races as they came up, The races I tested were from Tampa, Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Santa
Anita, Golden Gate and one race from Oaklawn where it was sloppy,
All the other tracks I tested races from were fast except Aqueduct which started out fast but then was listed as good, I ended up betting one race
which eventually became sloppy,

I did not cherry-pick these races I worked each race from the simulcast center at Del Mar as they came up.
I did not set out to do this It just evolved. I bet the first few races as i usually do with a cash voucher, Once I win enough I cash out and use my winnings to buy lunch and save some cash for gas and admission for my return trips. So the early races I don't have winning tickets saved.
After these first few races success, I thought It would be a good test to share
here on Pace and Cap . After the Tampa and AQU race 1's I did the rest on my online betting account. Where I have all my bets all documented.

So let's get started The first races that came up was Tampa and
Aqueduct race 1

Before I get started I will show you race 10 from SA.
This was my last bet after a long tiring day.
Like I wrote about life happens, I let the emotions of making mistakes in entering my bets and being totally exhausted effect my ability.
I ended up passing the biggest winner of the day

Here is race 10 from Santa Anita. A race I passed
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:34 AM   #2
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Race 10 Santa Anita

This is race 10 from Santa Anita. This was my last race of the day, I was very tired.
Actually I sould have staopped about 3 race sooner than race 10 from Santa Anita. I was very tired and had a headache. I wanted to complete the day,


The race was a 6.5 down the hill race.There was a heavy bet Baffert horse. Who knows how Baffert does on the turf? This also is a horse off over 275 days. The horse never ran in North America coming from Argentina.

I passed the race and look what happened the 11 wins at 23/1.
I only had three horse that fit FTL's guidelines the 11 1 and 2

The only positive is I passed and did not lose anything.

Name:  SA 10 This one is great but I did not bet.PNG
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That was a tough way to wrap up a nice day

Now the good news
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:39 AM   #3
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Tampa Race 1

The day started out with a nice winner
The 6 pays 10.60 I used a $20 voucher here at Delmar to get some hot food money.

Contenders were 6,1 and 5

I bet $ 6 on the # 6 and $10 on the #1 The #1 was the low odds so I split my $16 bet 60/40


Name:  Tampa 1.PNG
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:43 AM   #4
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AQU race 1

That was a nice start.

AQU I let my winnings roll here
I used 7-furlong lines here.
My contenders that fit FTL's guidelines

Horses 6,1 and 3

I bet $6 to win on the 1 and $10 to win on the 6

I cashed out the voucher


Name:  AQU 1 Horse 1 wins.PNG
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:48 AM   #5
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Next race AQU Race 2

I sent messages to Ted telling him what I was up to
I had great feeling things would go well today so I decided to bet the rest of the test using my online account

My contenders were 5, 6, 2

I split my bet 60/40 between the 6 and 5
the 5 wins and the 6 makes the exacta

Name:  AQU 2 Won this one # 5.PNG
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Name:  AQU 2 win ticket.PNG
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:53 AM   #6
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Next Race

Things are going really well in New York

I stayed with AQU for race 3
It was a wide open stakes race $100,000 Franklin Square
I just watched, Good thing, The 5 wins. It was a win contender but rated poorly on RX3
It hurt cause it is rated 2nd on TPR but that is not the issue No Bet
Contenders 4,6,3,2,5

Name:  Aqu 3  Missed.PNG
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:58 AM   #7
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Mike Sal's Match Up Race

Race 4 OP sloppy

I did not bet because of the off track
But I enjoy working these races Mike and other put up
The 10 rates 2nd the 3 makes the exacta but no bet

Contenders were 3,10, 5 , 9, 2


Name:  Mike Sal  did not bet because of the off track.PNG
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Old 02-25-2018, 07:03 AM   #8
Bill V.
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Gulfstream race 4

I only had two contenders
Horse # 2 and # 8

For horse 8 I used a 7.5 turf line
I was not sure to bet my full share of my $16 bank for this race
Because I used a horse with a 7.5 paceline
Instead, I bet both the 2 and 8
In an exacta 2, 8 / 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
This bet cost me $8
In hindsight, the 8 would have been nice to win at $21
I gladly took the exacta $67.60

Name:  GP 4 7.5 line.PNG
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Name:  GP 4 win ticket.PNG
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Old 02-25-2018, 07:11 AM   #9
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AQU Race 5

I put In my bet for AQU race 5 with lots of positive vibes
And it worked out really well.

Contender 5,6.3 4
The 6 wins as I up my bet to $11 each
The 5 places I think I will start to bet some exactas

Name:  AQU 5   # 6 wins.PNG
Views: 986
Size:  69.6 KB

Name:  Race 5 GP win ticket.PNG
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Time for lunch I got the hot food special
Meatloaf, Scallop Potatoes and Veggies
I had to drink water because of my restricted diet.


I watched race 5 from GP as I ate lunch
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Old 02-25-2018, 07:16 AM   #10
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Next Race

In race 6 at GP I was ready to roll again.

Race 6 was a stakes race at 5 furlongs on the turf
Things did not pan out.

Contender 2.6,7,3
Again I upped my bet. I bet the #2 and the #6 $16 each total $32
But horse #1 won off a 260-day layoff


Name:  GP 6 RX screen #1 wins.PNG
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Name:  GP 6 winner Horse 1.PNG
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