What makes a solid single play?

[pktruckdriver]

To you, what does it take to make a solid single play ?


What is that you look for that almost always makes for a single play, 5 points higher on TE.

A solid red line on top in the BL/BL screen, coupled with a 5 point SR and then ??????,

So far I am not able to make out strong single plays yet, but I am looking for it and hope this does not get taken the wrong way, and some of you will share here. As witnessed from my play in the Del Mar Tourney, so far 2 -3 horses, no 1 horse bet yet, and that is because no one horse has yet to stick out so much , for me to bet a single, and singles would be nice, rather 20-1 or 4-1, either way , as longs as it sticks out like a sore thumb...

We all know that what works for others may not work for you, but still, just being able to ask the current users what they find to be solid single signs, beats the older things in the library, as we, TED has been improving RDSS at great clips, and I tought an updated question might be appropriate now.



Patrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

[mikesal57]

Hi Patrick..

the only way I get single plays is using The Hat's Match-Up, which is the way I like it...with RDSS, and I'm sure the others here will get into, there is not one factor that can give you that single play...maybe if you do a full track profile and find a single factor that works then maybe you can get that confidence to bet one horse. I see guys winning betting 2 horses and betting exotics. The winners come out of all tiers and to single just one didn't work for me. Its a wonderful feeling to see your 5-1 tier 1 horse come in second and your 22-1 tier 3 horse win and not collect the $224 exacta
If you cap a race and see the favorite not in the top 3 , then your eyes should open wide . say you have $20 to bet per race , bet a w/p on a nice odds horse that you can see the pace setting up for him and then bet a 3 horse exacta with the top tier horses ..just a thought

You been doing just fine from what I see , so don't get crazy and try something new until you get that confidence!!

gl

mike

[pktruckdriver]

Thx Mike

1 quick follow up please, a tier is what exactly, my idea, is this

Line 1 in any screen in the Analysis mode is the top tier, line 2, 2nd tier, etc...

Am I wrong here, as this is what I believe I read, and when in doubt I ask, hope this does not bother anyone...

Patrick

[RichieP]

Morning Patrick
OK "tiers" are another word for "ranks".

Doc Sartin suggested the use of the word tier because he felt the wording of "rank" got too many users betting the "top 2 ranked" when very often for all but the most proficient of line pickers the real big priced winners often appeared tiered or ranked THIRD on the Bl/Bl screen.

He wanted folks to keep records (wager decision form for ex) that would show where the winners were coming from each individuals application/use of the software. Then put a numerical value for each "Tier" by adding up the wins and win prices to get an avg win $ for each tier.

Users could then see pretty clearly patterns of where winners come from including the high payers.

Record keeping

The screenshot shows Bl/Bl screen Patrick
#1 is tier 1
#8 is tier 2
#3 is tier 3
#5 is tier 4
#6 is tier 5
according to Bottom Line betting Line or Bl/Bl

Some users track by the "VDC" column so that would show:
#1 as tier 1
#8 and #3 tiered 2nd
#5 tiered 4th
#6 tiered 5th

Showing this race cause 10 minutes before the race ran I was on the phone with Barb C and told her I LOVED the #8 (6/1 at that time I told her). She would tell you I could not even find a second bet this one looked so good.

Why?
1) Highest odds in top 3
2) Strong and I mean Strong corollary support looking at a couple of reads and then my record sheet.

PS- I could show 4 other races exactly like this at 3 tracks yesterday that all LOST. Absolute stone cold best bet/loved them type races. Nothing.

The traits they all had in common are very simple:
1) Whether the bet was win on 1 horse or 2 I always have the chance of at least a MINIMUM of a 5/1 payoff on at least one of my bets (if betting 2 horses otherwise the single has to be value bet)

2) Win lose or draw the best show themselves to me immediately as soon as I see the screen.

Keep trucking Patrick and hope this helped

[mikesal57]

thxs for following up Richie

[clore1030]

I have two in particular:

1) A BL score that is at least 20% higher than the next contender.

2) In sprints, an EPR score that is two points higher than the next contender.

To that I add minimal acceptable odds of 5/2 (and that is rare) and nothing worse than a "good" track.

This gave me 46 plays at Belmont, of which I won 14 for a 30% hit rate and an average mutuel of $12.44.

Yesterday's eighth race at Saratoga gave me a qualifier on EPR and a $10.00 mutuel. It was my only play of the day.

[pktruckdriver]

Yes Richie as always you come thru , thank you it was what I thought it was, just like, "the Da Bears where what we thoght they were", old Coach Green's rant after blowing a huge lead to the Bears on Monday night.

Do you use any other Colloraries/factors, using the word factors is both easier to say and write/or type, as I know Doc had ways with certain words to make them different , yet mean the same, making you think different by his wording of things and his intellectual way of pointing things out, unfortunately way above my knowledge level, yet the neccessary way needed to think outside the box before it was fashionable to do so. now back to question do you focus any other factors within RDSS to spot plays, like you said all 4 yesterday lost, but fit your criteria as plays thou, maening remember thus is a tough game and win% is 1/3rd or so, and don not foget it, nothing is 100% and never will be, not even 60%, at least over time, as I had a 100% week, then 1 race the following week BAM I lose it, so everything equals out in the long run, from what I gather here it is my job to find a higher percentage of payouts, thus keeping the ROI up, which is definetely being done here at RDSS, am I on the right track, did I listen right this time, not trying to be sarcastic either, just asking, okay


Patrick

Thanks Clore1030

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by clore1030

I have two in particular:

1) A BL score that is at least 20% higher than the next contender.

2) In sprints, an EPR score that is two points higher than the next contender.

To that I add minimal acceptable odds of 5/2 (and that is rare) and nothing worse than a "good" track.

This gave me 46 plays at Belmont, of which I won 14 for a 30% hit rate and an average mutuel of $12.44.

Yesterday's eighth race at Saratoga gave me a qualifier on EPR and a $10.00 mutuel. It was my only play of the day.

nice going charles..a 1.89 roi...sweet
and yes that was my matcher horse in the 8th..but was bet down from 12-1..did u do that to me?

but like i said before .. to wait for those 46 plays...whewww

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

nice going charles..a 1.89 roi...sweet
and yes that was my matcher horse in the 8th..but was bet down from 12-1..did u do that to me?

but like i said before .. to wait for those 46 plays...whewww

Mike if I read this right you strongly advocate waiting for the right opportunity to play and would sit out an entire card if nothing met your requirements, no reaching for you...

Now I must drive you nuts with playing or capping every race on a card, but please understand this is to aquire races to study and for me to get use the RDSS by using it, getting my eyes adjusted to it, being able to see those stand outs rights away if they are there to see, and soon when I become more familar and really reeady to play more seriously, then well I must play more seriously, but for now, it is play many tracks, but only 1-2 a day, normally a day and nite track, find ones that I do well with and be able to prove it with records to show it.

But till then I will every now and then invest 100 or 50 and play a card, when approapriate, onlty did this twice so far, today will be 3rd time, as 1st 2 times were devastating, I lost almost every race, horrible, but still had fun.


Fun this game is fun for me, 1st and foremost, then comes the finacial side of it, but when the fun goes away so will I....

Patrick

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

nice going charles..a 1.89 roi...sweet
and yes that was my matcher horse in the 8th..but was bet down from 12-1..did u do that to me?

but like i said before .. to wait for those 46 plays...whewww

No, I rarely put more than 30 bucks on a horse. I may be upping that slightly given my success at Belmont.

Re the 8th yesterday - I had to go out, so I put the bet in early. I didn't see the race until much later, I have no idea of the odds when it opened, but in no way did I expect 12/1 on it. The program had it at 3/1.

I'm getting used to the lack of action, although I still handicap just about every day. As I'm less successful with horses in the lower claiming ranks, I confine my activity to $20K claimers and up and no turf races with two or more unknowns in the field.

This is one thing I stress to anyone - know where your strengths lie.