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Old 05-25-2015, 07:38 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Non winner of 2 lifetime races

A couple of years ago I was working with another contributor to this site who was trying to teach me the matchup. Thats another story. Anyway, in some of the races we did I kept noticing that the horse in the field with the highest class of win often was the winner of the race!

I started handicapping races solely using the Match Up in about October of last year. I would print the free PPS and work the races with a hard copy of the form in front of me.

Since October at venues that included Del Mar, SA, Woodbine, FG, GP, Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Arlington and a few others I found 25 races that I had handicapped that were restricted to NW2L at any class level. I assure you that there are a lot more of these races than I discovered, but I did not handicap that often. If you look through the entries for this last weekend you will find 5 or 6 races per day of this category.

I used only basic contender guidelines and minimal matching techniques to get 17 winners. (In one of the races from Woodbine, all of the horses had won their maiden in statebred MSW races - I counted this as a loss.) I identified running styles and only eliminated horses that were otherwise contenders only if there were multiple early horses that canceled out one of the highest level winning maidens.

The highest class is MSW, then MSW-statebred (I considered a statebred MSE as a 50k MCL and I cut in half any MCL race restricted to statebreds. So a statebred MCL25 was recorded as a MCL12.5. Maiden races won on turf where today was on dirt, were not considered and vice versa. If a horse has so many races that its maiden win is not in the last 10 races, the horse was basically NQ

If a horse did not meet the contender guidelines shown here, I labeled the horse NQ (not qualified) and went on to the next best maiden win level.

Recent races:
5/23 -WO 4th, there were 2 MSW winners, the 2 and 9, of the rest there were 2 statebreds and rest were MCL of some level. The 9 won at about 5/1

5/24 - SA 5th, the 2 won at MCL50, the highest by far, won at 5.0/1

5/25 - Arl, 1st, the 3 was tied for 2nd hi, won at dbl digit odds.

5/25 - CD, 3rd, six horses, 1 mdn win on turf-today was mud; the two highest finished 1-2; winner pd over 3/1

5/25 - SA, 7th, the 10 and 12 were MCL50 mdn winners with all but 1 other from MCL 30 and lower; 1 horse MSW at GGF, but was NQ. the 10 won at 9/2, the 12 was 3rd.

I lost 1 of these types of races today and 2 yesterday (not shown).

Still testing this and I would be interested in the results of others.

I have about 15 races for NW3L in that same period, but no patterns have appeared or at least I have not seen the pattern yet. Problem with a lot of these races is that many times you cannot see the maiden win and sometimes even the N2L win in the last 10 races!!!


Here are the contender guidelines: (most of these guidelines were originally from Tom Brohamer - there is a slight change of what is up close for longer races. Note: if the last race was the first race at today's track and it makes the horse NQ, go to next race without penalizing the horse.)
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Last edited by Bill Lyster; 05-25-2015 at 07:42 PM.
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Old 05-25-2015, 11:02 PM   #2
dogkatcher
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As always, great work Bill.

The 5th race at SA was on the 23rd, Maximimus and was an outstanding Match Up play, and a nice overlay at $12.

I like the NW2L races for the Match Up as I don't have to worry as much when using a Mdn race paceline. Jim would many times say or just throw out a Mdn line, but I'm thinking none of them have ever beaten a decent field so why not use it on occasion.

Your guidelines here will help all of us become better matcher, thanks.
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Old 05-26-2015, 10:20 AM   #3
Bill Lyster
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It is amazing to see the regression (mostly) of horses from their first win to where ever they are racing today. With rare exceptions the horses in N2L races have only won a maiden race, so they have NEVER beaten winners before, so why not give some credence to where they started out. Agreed that not all trainers have the best foresight to see where their charges should win, but WHERE they won appears to have weight at least until they have their 2nd win. Really the only thing needed to be in the mix is to qualify under the modified Brohamer contender guidelines. Then note the level of maiden win and whether their is an early battle that might exclude the horse.
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Old 05-26-2015, 09:29 PM   #4
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Add to contender guidelines

I would add one item to the existing list.

It involves a sprinter going into a route. If you find a sprinter who gains against his paces but does not meet the "close up" requirements, look at the pace of the sprint vs the paces of the routers who qualify. Many times you will find routers whose 6 furlong times are so slow, like 48-49-50 and then 114-115 or more against a sprinter who closes against 46.x - 113.x. this type of horse should be looked at closely as a win candidate.

Before labeling any horse NQ take account of the pace it ran against. If the pace is significantly faster than the rest of the qualifiers keep the horse before making final choices.
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Old 05-27-2015, 01:47 PM   #5
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Here is an example from yesterday

The runners
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Old 05-27-2015, 01:50 PM   #6
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The rest of the field
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Old 05-27-2015, 02:22 PM   #7
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Bill, after reading your post earlier I have kept it in mind and now at Delaware Park Race 4 May 27, NW2L, the #7 is a standout. It will probably be odds on but lets see what happens here. I landed on the #1 and #7 not considering your pattern recognition.

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Old 05-27-2015, 02:33 PM   #8
Bill Lyster
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You need to make sure that the horse qualifies or has one of the few acceptable race excuses to go back a line. If no excuse then horse is NQ. I cannot get the PPs for this race so cannot see the field.
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Old 05-27-2015, 02:37 PM   #9
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I didn't go through all those qualifications yet. So maybe the horse would be an NQ.
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Old 05-27-2015, 02:42 PM   #10
Bill Lyster
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The 3, 5 and 6 from Parx were highest maiden win, but the six won on turf route, and lost last 3 badly, so NQ on 6. the 1-2-3 are E types and all fade on slow 1Cs.

All the rest are MCL 10 winners, but the 10 ran vs decent pace without losing lengths or position. It helps that he is lightly raced (7 starts) which is usually a good thing in fields like these.

In this case the best remaining MCL horse, the 5, came 2nd to the 10 who ran 46.7-113.5 and coasted home by 4.
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