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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-23-2013, 11:38 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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PRX race 4 1.21.13
This is an interesting race for the following reason.
THERE IS NOT AN EARLY HORSE AMONG THE CONTENDERS! Just look at the running lines. What I'm going to say next applies to ALL TYPES of races. When you end up with nothing but pressers and closers among you contenders, one of them will rank #1 early. One of them will show best on the F1 section of the segments screen. One of them will show fastest on EPR on the TPR screen. Does this mean that is the early horse in the race? ABSOLUTELY NOT!! Early horses are early horses. OTHER THAN early horses are OTHER THAN early!!! So in this race there is no early horse to "zero in on", even though the winner showed best on F1 on the segments screen. In this race the BL/BL may be the right place to look. In this case it was. The winner actually came from off the pace to win the race. One last note. Check the class on the running lines screen. The winner is the only horse among the contenders that is dropping down a couple of classes for this race. This is always a help to maidens. The winner, #4, paid $6.20.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-23-2013, 11:39 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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PRX race 6 1.21.13
My contenders did not produce the winner of this race.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-24-2013, 12:02 AM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Recap
So just to recap, the ten races mentioned here were run on 2 consecutive days, at 3 different tracks on 2 different surfaces.
The total return of the 7 winners comes to $89.20. Some would have been "high odds" bets, while some may have been "low odds" bets. Either way I'm sure you can see these were profitable races.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-24-2013, 10:06 AM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: New-York, NY
Posts: 129
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For The Lead, thanks for a great post about maidens. A lot of us do avoid those maidens. You are totally right about that. But I recognize that there are opportunities there, since there is never a shortage of maiden races, and their mutual is not that bad, compared to the non-maiden races that are more predictable by the public, and therefore overbet.
Thanks to your post, I am willing to take the dive. I will let you know when I catch my first big one. Have a good day. Paul |
01-25-2013, 06:06 AM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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anybody
Did anybody work yeaterdays Santa Anita maiden race using FTL's outline
If you had you would have been very happy The track was wet/fast and no turf Bill |
01-25-2013, 09:10 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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I'd be interested in seeing your stats for EP regardless of running style.
For sprints, I suspect you'll find significantly more winners showed a top EP rating in MCL than MSW. |
01-25-2013, 11:44 PM | #17 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
I wasn't going to post the maiden races from SA yesterday because it really isn't a study of what it takes from a running style point of view, which is how I started this thread. However, it is still worthwhile posting from a "contender selection" point of view. I'm just going to post up the "original" screen for each race. RACE #2....none of my contenders won this race. RACE #4....here's the screen shot. The winner, #12, paid $35.60. RACE #5....here's the screen shot. The winner, #3, paid $3.40. RACE #8....here's the screen shot. The winner, #11, paid $16.00. For those not keeping track, this makes 10 winners from 14 races with a total return of $144.20.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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01-26-2013, 08:37 AM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Heath Ohio
Posts: 420
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LRL 9th Race
Thought I would jump in with this one
from yesterday. I only had 2 contenders. I wanted to thank FTL this was an excellent post he started. |
01-26-2013, 08:39 AM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Heath Ohio
Posts: 420
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***
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02-01-2013, 08:43 PM | #20 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Look for it
It took a while I had some success with maiden earlys but I wanted to wait for the LONE E8
I got it tonight race 6 from Penn I only bet $2 but 14/1 is nice Last edited by Bill V.; 02-01-2013 at 08:48 PM. |
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