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Old 06-16-2013, 02:38 PM   #11
Bill V.
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Both out

Hi NFS

I my self would have lost this race no matter what line I used
Because I would not have a used a pace line for the winner

But in regards to the 9 and 10

The 9 is 30/1 on the ML there are 3 scratches in the race, but 20/1 ML horses hardly ever win so when I see 30- 1 just pass them by
Line 3 is a plus race but for this horse that 76 looks like a best case
A horse moving up after a loss is good for value but a bad bet statistically

The 10 has no route lines and its ability to run 6 furlongs is in doubt, let alone
2 turns against $40000 horses. No line

Bill
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Old 06-16-2013, 04:44 PM   #12
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Pace Makes The Race (PMTR)
Ahhhhh....I remember....Because I am restudying it for the umpteenth time right now!!!

Back in the day...for me PMTR was just being published. At that time, as Bill said, "The best book on handicapping I ever read was Pace Makes The Race." (By the way, Bill is a living, breathing Sartin encyclopedia IMO. Pay attention to what he has to say.)

The software program of choice at that time was Phase III. Ultrascan was just ready to be released. Phase III was all about incremental velocity. You had to manually input the times and beaten lengths for each paceline you wanted to use. It was being used two different ways. First was to enter all of the lines for one horse's past performance and the other was to enter the lines of the contenders. Notice that you were picking contenders and selecting pacelines before you entered them into the program. Although it could be used to select contenders and pacelines using it the first way, it is obvious that "it was a lot of work." More work than the average person was willing or able to do. I worked full time. Had family considerations and was aspiring to handicapping professionalism. The amount of work between that, track profiles, par charts, variants, Brohamer Models, etc... was very overwhelming.
On top of that, for me, the readouts were very confusing. See the Yellow Manual for some examples. I would look at a readout with velocities of 1F, 2F, 2C, FT, Total for not just the POR but POH for 5, 6, 7 horses. Sure, my pea sized brain could see that 58.25 was less than 58.32, but it did not mean anything to me. Still doesn't. I could not get a "feel" for what the difference of 0.07 meant other than this number is higher than that. So as a personal preference I don't use the Velocity POR & POH tabs in RDSS.

What PMTR did was simplify things and it provided some structure as to process and workflow. While the Follow Ups were being published every couple of months and did provide information, they left me confused. You were always given glowing reports from how this person was doing well by doing this an that, yet, I struggled because it was not geling for me from the bits and pieces that were being written. (Now I am no dummy. I graduated Magna Cum Laude with a degree in Accounting. Yes, I am an accountant and just like doctors and lawyers, you are trained to be able to apply concepts and theory and not just memorize and repeat.) Even today, as I go back over Follow Ups and Manuals, I still shake my head. PMTR changed that. It simplified the numbers, but, more importantly, it provided a workflow, and the thought process that you could wrap your mind around and get better at the more you practiced.

My recommendation - it does not matter if it costs $50, $75 or even $100... Buy that book!!!

A word of warning though, get the first edition. As I wrote before, I have a unique perspective. I was around back in 1985. But walked away from handicapping. I decided in February 2013 to return to handicapping. That is why I am "new". A lot has changed, but, a lot has remained the same. I did not get the RDSS software until it was released as RDSS2 to everyone back in April I think. I had searched for the Methodolgy and was lucky enough to find Pace and Cap. (My undying appreciation to Bill and Ted for keeping the Methodology alive through this site and the software and to other oldtimers on this forum such as ForTheLead, Shoeless, lone speed and many others who I have not mentioned but are equally appreciated for keeping this sense of community and sharing strong.) When I looked back, what I found was that Michael Pizzolla went in another direction. Now my understanding is that in later editions of PMTR (I think the 3rd ed.), his contributions were taken out of the book. (I am not sure about this.) I personally was able to find a pristine copy of the 1st ed. and spent the good money to get it. Pizzola's contribution is very important. Again, I may be wrong about later editions, so be careful, but, do get the book.

Next.....LOL
Back in the day....again...LOL
Class was something that was being struggle with. Studies were done and a chart of track class was created that you were to follow and a brief explanation of what to do but no real practical application was presented on making your own. "Keep track of this and that at your own track and circuit and if a horse is coming from another track and you do not have class charts, extrapolate it." HUH???? Again, it was one more thing that required data collection and interpretation. So many of us would do a quick APV calc along with a cursory look at the lifetime winnings chart when it came to class. We read the saying "Pace is Class, is Form, Is Pace..." and that was about it because we were using pace so we did nto consder class. The amount of staggeringly, overwhelming amount of work involved (I said that before right? LOL) that class did not seem as important and APV "sort of got you there" so I just let it be.
ForTheLead is someone you should hang on to every word he writes. His knowledge about class (and other things) is immense. For me, obviously, I am extremely weak when it comes to class, yet, I can see how it can be effectively used for contender selection. Therefore, it is definitely an area of study on my list along with everything he has to say.

Now, for my humble opinions....
On to 9 Truetap...
For me a non contender and therefore I am not agonizing over a paceline. There are a couple of sprinters in the race who can run around a 111 in sprints. While I don't think that will be the POR at the 2C, Truetap recently shows that it isn't competing at 113 - Out - slop or no slop.

For 10 Livonzin - Out - no need for selecting a paceline. There is another sprinter in the race. Can Livonzin compete with Tiz Tee Time? Possibly...except that Tiz likes to move in the final fraction and today is running at a longer distance. Livonzin was laid off for 147 days and is now on its second race back. While it ran as expected for the 1C and made a move in the 2F, today's race is a route. A move to the 2C is only the 1F of a route. Not enough for me. Granted, we don't know what it will do in a route, but, neither do we know that about Tiz. When I compare the two - out goes Livonzin - even before I have considered the other routers in the race.


Hope all of that helps.
Jim
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Old 06-16-2013, 04:52 PM   #13
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Bill thanks for recommending Pace Makes the Race I can get one for $20 so I will order one up tonight. As far as the race for the 4 horse you would have had him out? Because of the distance change? I like that you tossed the 9 and 10 with your logic. I am trying to look more at ASR like you are and will try to learn a lot more about it as we go on.

A question just came to me and I would love to hear from anyone on it. FTL it looks like you have a rule about not going back past 90 days for a pace line. So here in the case of Nehro would you automatically toss him out? With this being a distinct possibility and him being such a favorite in the public betting is this a good betting race?
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Old 06-16-2013, 05:38 PM   #14
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Jim thanks a ton for your insights. You take a different approach and that helps me relate and give thought where I wouldn't normally. I see you are using numbers to try to convert the sprinters to see if they can route today. I want to look into that some more as we all know that's a common make up of a race. This race might be a good example for me. The #4 horse might have the numbers to compete in a route. As you approach it we now know that the #10 horse does not.

As I stated earlier I found a Pace Makes the Race book for $20. I will stop and make sure its first edition now that you warned me. Its a book that others have recommended also so I won't let price get in the way of things. I really look forward to reading it.

Thanks again everyone I'm taking all of your advices as I find my own way to do things. That's going to take some time and not something I am going to rush. I'm concentrating on the basics. You all have a way to win yet you all have a different and unique approach as I can see clearly the more I go forward. There are common grounds though and that's what I am watching very closely for.
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Old 06-16-2013, 05:44 PM   #15
Bill V.
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original

The original version will probably cost much more than that
The update versions have been edited and some important work by
Doc and Pizzola may have been taken out

I would suggest looking for the original

Bill
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Old 06-16-2013, 06:18 PM   #16
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Bill versions are a bit hard to find out about. Is hard cover the original? I can get one for $36. Let me know what you think.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listi...condition=used
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Old 06-16-2013, 06:33 PM   #17
Ted Craven
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Hard Cover is the original Edition. Dr Sartin and Michael Pizzolla are included among the authors, along with Hambleton and Schmidt. Subsequent editions were published only by the latter two.

That Amazon listing almost the same listing as the one which leads from the Sartin Methodology Amazon Bookstore:

http://astore.amazon.com/sartinmetho...ail/096307430X

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Old 06-16-2013, 06:52 PM   #18
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Ted it looks like you are giving the green light on the one for $36. Sorry just want to double check before finalizing the payment.
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Old 06-16-2013, 07:50 PM   #19
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Send them an email to be sure it's the hard cover Edition 1.

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Old 06-16-2013, 08:30 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeedForSpeed View Post
OP 4-13-2013 Race 4

CONTENDERS
1- Banjammer > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
2- Bid Til Included > This horses last race was a “0” and the next pace line is 175 days away. I don’t want to go too far back and this horse hasn’t shown a strong win tendency in recent races. OUT
3- A Student > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
4- Tiz Tee Time > 3 “+” lines out if its last 4 races although all are sprints. WIN CONTENDER
5- Nehro > I may need help with this one. 301 days off? I just can’t justify this. Also I noticed (it may or may not mean anything) as much class as it has its only wins are maiden and NW1. OUT
6- Kates main man > SCRATCH
7- Omniscient > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. I wanted to make him ITM contender because he hasn’t won in his last 10 but he is 5 out of 31 lifetime. My decision was WIN CONTENDER
8- Runaway Pepper > SCRATCH
9- Truetap > This horse’s pattern is “0”, “0”, “+”, “0”, “+”. He was claimed 3 back and has been dismal in his last 2 NW2X races. Today’s race is NW2X. Do I toss the horse? There’s just enough in the overall PP’s to keep him in. WIN CONTENDER
10- Livonzin > There are no routes in his 4 races. Started 2 for 2 then came up short as a favorite and was put on the shelf. Maybe the first race back was a tune up for this new attempt at distance? Because of its record I am keeping it in. WIN CONTENDER

PACE LINES
1- Banjammer > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
3- A Student > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
4- Tiz Tee Time > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
7- Omniscient > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
9- Truetap > The only usable pace line within the last 90 days is the 3rd pace line. But the 2nd pace line has no excuses. Should I now toss this horse due to that? LINE 3
10- Livonzin > This horse made a big move between 1st and 2nd calls to get to 2.7 lengths behind. Is this a usable pace line? Or is this horse out without a good pace line within 90 days? LINE 1

RACE ANALYSIS
Velocity PoH shows the 10 to get the early lead and be the pace setter. But the 10 is weak late and will fall off. There are no other lead or presser types so I can’t see any projected “L’s” winning the race. I eliminate the 9 from win status. I now have 2 “SP’s” and 2 “S’s”. I give more weight to the “SP’s” because the pace is weak and unless the “S’s” show a clear advantage I want to stick with the “SP’s”. First thing I see is the #1 horse. He has the best ASR at 82 and is an “SP”. Win selection. That leaves 3 horses and they are all very close in all categories. Their ASR’s are basically the same so with the #4 as the only “SP” of the 3 horses #4 is my other win selection.

My question coming out of this concerns the 9 and 10 horses. At pace line selection if pace line 2 has no excuses do I toss the horse without going to a valid pace line 3? For horse 10 can I use that “big move” pace line?
Let's look at the #9. The question is, "should we go back to line 3?" My answer is "NO" and here is the reason.

You will find that in many of my answers, "conditions" usually play a part. This case is not different, so let's look at the conditions for the last three races. But before we do that, what is today's condition? it is an "OC" (optional claiming race) with a NW2X (non winners of 2 race other than) condition. So is line 2. Line 3, however, is different. Line 3 was a "CL" (claiming race) with a NW3L (non winners of 3 races lifetime) condition. There is a BIG difference between the conditions of lines 1 & 2 when compared to the conditions of line 3, with the conditions of lines 1 & 2 being MUCH tougher. Since this horse ran well in line 3 and ran so bad in lines 1 & 2, we can logically conclude it will NOT run well in today's race. It is NOT a contender in today's race.
Now, having said all that, there is one more thing. This is NOT a Sartin Methodology thing, but rather, something of my own. I have no idea how many times I have written this, but since you are new to the site I don't mind writing it again. I have well over 5,000,000 horses in a database. This database is made up of well over 600,000 races. I can tell you that horses that have a morning line (ML) of 20/1 or higher win about 5% of the races, so I'm content with eliminating these horses as non-contenders. I rather work with the 95% that are among the most logical contenders. One thing everyone must learn, is that no matter how you approach handicapping horse races...YOU CAN'T WIN THEM ALL!" You have to learn to accept the losses and move on, continuing to use a consistent approach.
That was the long way around saying that the #9 horse also has a ML of 30/1 and for that reason would be dismissed out of hand. Ok, on to the #10 horse.

The #10 horse is straight forward. The idea behind picking contenders and pacelines is finding "COMPARABLE" lines from which to make a determination. Here is a screen shot I took from either the Paceline manual or a Follow Up, right now I'm not sure which, but it is something "DOC" wrote.

Name:  comparable..JPG
Views: 882
Size:  25.2 KB

QUESTION: Does the #10 horse have a race on the dirt in a route race?
ANSWER: NO.

This horse is NOT a contender.
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