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Old 06-16-2013, 08:53 PM   #21
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A question just came to me and I would love to hear from anyone on it. FTL it looks like you have a rule about not going back past 90 days for a pace line. So here in the case of Nehro would you automatically toss him out? With this being a distinct possibility and him being such a favorite in the public betting is this a good betting race?
I have two 90 rules or you could call them guidelines if you prefer.

1 - Any horse without a race in the last 90 days is a NON CONTENDER.
2 - I only use a line if it occurred in the last 90 days, otherwise the horse is a NON CONTENDER.

The database information I gave you in my above post is the reason for these rules/guidelines. Like the statistic I noted on ML 20/1 or higher, horses that have not run in the last 90 days or horses without a good comparable line in the last 90 days also fit into the same scenario.
It's not the "needle" I'm looking for, it's the haystack! There are many, many terrific prices without "going fishing" for them.

As far as the favorite that has not run in the last 90 days is concerned, yes, I would eliminate the horse as a non contender as far as I am concerned, however, I will still look at the horse AND at the rest of the field. If I cannot find a horse "I believe" can win the race, I will pass the race. This is true in every race I look at. I will always look at the favorite and determine if I can beat it or not. I will look at what is "right" with it and I will look at what is "wrong" with it. In order for me to bet against the favorite, I have to believe I can beat it. Since I never bet on a favorite, I am either confident I can beat it and bet against it or I pass the race.
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Old 06-16-2013, 10:04 PM   #22
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Hi FTL. First up I want to say that I did read a post to someone else a while back where you stated your database contains over 5 mil horses. Once I got my jaw back in place I said well, I'm gonna make a separate category for FTL posts. One where I pay special attention to whats being said. That and I do have a curiosity to conditions and I want to push myself to learn everything I can about it. With that said can I ask you a couple of questions?

1- Can I myself automatically cross off 20-1 and above ML odds and make them non contenders? Again I am trying not to leave any stones unturned or dismiss horses so quickly even though the answer may be obvious.
2- I notice you tossed out the #10. The #10 doesn't have any route races. So would the same apply to the #4 horse? His last 10 races are dominated by sprints. He has a very good recent record. But are these lines comparable in the way Doctor Sartin intended them to be?
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Old 06-16-2013, 10:23 PM   #23
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Hi FTL. First up I want to say that I did read a post to someone else a while back where you stated your database contains over 5 mil horses. Once I got my jaw back in place I said well, I'm gonna make a separate category for FTL posts. One where I pay special attention to whats being said. That and I do have a curiosity to conditions and I want to push myself to learn everything I can about it. With that said can I ask you a couple of questions?

1- Can I myself automatically cross off 20-1 and above ML odds and make them non contenders? Again I am trying not to leave any stones unturned or dismiss horses so quickly even though the answer may be obvious.
2- I notice you tossed out the #10. The #10 doesn't have any route races. So would the same apply to the #4 horse? His last 10 races are dominated by sprints. He has a very good recent record. But are these lines comparable in the way Doctor Sartin intended them to be?
In my experience, the best way to find solid contenders is to first find the non contenders. If you can eliminate the losers then only the possible winners remain. This must be a consistent approach. If and when you get beat by a non contender, and you WILL get beat by one, just go on to the next race and follow your consistent approach.

So in answer to your first question, yes. I understand what you are saying about leaving no stone unturned. If I could put my hands on it right now, I just don't remember where I saw it, DOC cautioned about putting non contenders "in". They change your readouts and could cause you to forget that they were really non contenders.

I don't know about the #4 horse. I didn't look at it, but I'll try to let "DOC" answer your second question. This is from the Paceline Manual. There is more to it, but this is the pertinent part.
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This was on page 17 of the manual.
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Old 06-17-2013, 01:26 AM   #24
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Thanks a ton FTL! I love to hear about conditions and if a trainer is making a smart move like the one above when he went with an SA race for his horse. You've given me some great pointers on this phase of handicapping and I will use all of them going forward. I will search the net for some readings so I can interpret them from the pace line. For example I saw one that just said "SO" and in this horses line you see "ST s85". I'm pretty sure I can hunt those down when I need them.

Its interesting I ended up with a horse that didn't run I think it helps a ton not knowing where it would have finished up. My brain won't be swayed by the results and trying to fit it instead of really looking at it. As objective as I want to be knowing the results is still in the back of my mind.
I thought I would post up a couple of conditions from Belmont.
One is an "SO" (Starter Optional Claiming) and the other is an "OC" (Allowance Optional Claiming), generally referred to as just an "optional claimer", just so you can compare them. Something to keep in mind is, not all tracks write the same types of races. Some tracks write "SO" others don't. If you read these conditions, you will find that they are very similar, with the difference being "class level". The "OC" (optional claimer) is written for better quality horses, while "SO" (Starter Optional Claimers) are for lesser quality horses. Here are the conditions.

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Name:  SO.JPG
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As for the other part of you inquiry;
"ST" means Stake Race
"s" lower case "s" is a state bred designation. It is for horses bred in the state where the track is located.
"85" is the purse value of the race. In this case $85,000.
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Old 06-17-2013, 09:41 AM   #25
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Beautiful thanks again FTL. Time to go to work on all of your suggestions so if you don't see me the next 2 to 3 weeks thats where I am. Take care everyone.
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Old 06-17-2013, 09:50 AM   #26
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Send them an email to be sure it's the hard cover Edition 1.

Ted
dang someone bought the one for $36 last night! oh well
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