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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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05-07-2018, 05:32 PM | #11 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,145
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Quote:
Tim
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Trust but verify |
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05-07-2018, 06:31 PM | #12 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Let's Parlay
Thank you
Mitch, Tim and Mick and Papajohn It looks like i picked a nice demo horse in Let's Parlay Solid effort from the # 2 ranked TPR and RX 2 rated horse |
05-07-2018, 08:07 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Yes Bill you did pick a good one. Nice payoff also of $11.00 , hope you made some money off it.
The absolute best of deceleration is V/ DC . I forgot Ted placed it on the TPR screen which is a big benefit to those primarily using TPR. I'm still using the older version. DCL is very good but the whole race needs to be consider or what takes place before the 3rd FR. V/DC does all that. Get on the V/DC train,its a direct line to where you want to go. The train pulled into Parx today and V/DC robbers walked out with $$$$$$ All aboard, Mitch44 |
05-12-2018, 10:13 PM | #14 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 481
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Incredible Posts
Folks,
This is all great stuff. You have all made my night, and my weekend. Happy Punting, Jon |
05-12-2018, 10:20 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Glad
Glad your getting help here at Pace and Cap
Good Skill Jon Bill |
05-15-2018, 10:26 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 153
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Gentlemen, a terrific review and a for me a coherent pulling together of some loose ends.
Pat |
05-15-2018, 12:30 PM | #17 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 25
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Great post and a great group for sharing information. After over 40 years of this game I love I have never agreed with a set of rules for pace line selection. I use an intuitive approach as I think many great opportunities are missed with a rules approach. I always go back on races and check to see if I missed anything on the winning horse. I read the pace lines from the bottom up and look for horses that come back well after layoff and trainers who prepare them well. I live in Florida and only play Florida tracks. Trainers are creatures of habit and have jocks they switch to when they feel a horse is ready and generally prepare them in prep races. The only bottom line way I measure success is ROI .... either I feed them or they feed me.
Again, I thank everyone for sharing info and I will always test new ideas. |
05-15-2018, 01:58 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
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Bill V tags one again
Hey there
This thread certainly has had a great interest as showing what those reading do bring to the front and also from the last line Lawrence
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May all wagers be Winners... |
05-16-2018, 02:52 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Deceleration and Distance
There they find a home and are competitive winning at the shorter distances however the purses are less. Even at the major tracks longer races have higher purses, speed and the ability to carry speed is rewarded.Trainers that can’t train routers are apt to make less money than those that can. Even within the sprint and route structure longer races are rewarded such as a 7 F verses 6 F or a 1 1/4 vs. a 1 1/8. My experience is that the racing world is oblivious to the deceleration factor. Trainers experiment in most cases and stumble upon a horse’s best distance after the horse fails to win and only getting several place or shows. The better trainers are aware of higher purses and experiment much sooner to find it. The racing secretary actually fixes all the races at the track, by carding races at many various distances, surfaces and not allowing winning horses to enter a particular race. His goal is to give every horse an equal chance to win, earn purse money and to prevent any one horse, trainer or owner from winning all the money. It works to perfection. My experience also is that very few are aware of the deceleration factor to include inside connections and handicappers. They are very well aware that each horse has a best distance which isn’t the same thing. Real class horses can win at several distances, they can carry that speed with little deceleration, however even they have limits and a best distance. A horse that can’t win at 8 F can and does win at 1 1/16 and one that wins at 1 1/16 can’twin at 8 F due to the deceleration factor. Connections all tend to wear blinkers in that they all believe they have the best horse in the race and lose their objectivity. Being well aware of the deceleration factor when choosing pace lines I try to stay within ½ F and if not possible never more than 1 F.Races tend to run slower going longer and faster going shorter, choosing lines not within 1 F will destroy readouts. Also another reason why I perform an analysis my top contenders is to determine their best distance and surface, there are several ways or tools to quickly accomplish this. Your analysis begins with the race conditions of the race where it describes the distance and surface of today’s race along with other valuable information. Quickly finding the best Speed Rating or two best will put you on target. Same with the Total Energy rating for each race which RDSS provides. The earning box also provides clues as to surface etc.,however make sure its current, not a 7 year old that earned something as a 3year and is no longer the same horse. I use the earnings box to see if a horse ever performed on today’s surface or distance if their chart doesn’t show a race for today’s conditions. I mainly use the horses past performance chart which is current. This allows you to get off the train at the right station say in N.Y.’s Penn Station where as deceleration will take you from there right to the track such as Aqueduct. An analysis of deceleration allows you to arrive at the track and pull right up to valet parking. It’s a take no prisoners attitude when it comes to money,especially at the track. Better trainers exploit the inefficient ones by claiming horses from the unwary or just plain incompetent trainers. Better trainers are very aware of the best distance and surface of horses in the game.By examining deceleration we can anticipate when a move will pay dividends and be ahead of the crowd while many times having more knowledge than the connections themselves to include trainers. Not just for claims. This is an area that hasn’t been fully explored and contains several ways to implement this factor and they tend to pay better also as most handicappers are too speed oriented to include Sartin devotees. Within a certain distance such as 6 F there are many horses who are only running for minor awards or none at all because of the deceleration factor. Not only does the factor of deceleration greatly affect the various distances of races it greatly has an effect within each distance itself or in other words every race that is run. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 05-16-2018 at 03:08 PM. |
07-05-2018, 10:16 AM | #20 | |
3-3-1 - 3-3-2
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 394
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Good Read
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