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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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09-18-2017, 01:21 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,040
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Hi Bill. I took it to mean that any layoff horse more then 42 days and any FTS. If the other horses have run with 42 days I just capped them as usual. I'm looking at it as a possible spot play or another plus factor for 1 of my top 5. Let's see what Bill V has to say since it's his baby.
Tim
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09-18-2017, 01:26 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Also, it looks like the % does not register unless 5 works at the distance were run on a given day.
6 f works are fairly rare and if a horse has the best 6f work out of three it should get 100% (or maybe even 67% as its better than 2/3rds of the horses working out at this distance - not sure about this aspect of the data), but instead gets no % score??? |
09-18-2017, 02:14 PM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hello from Hollywood and vine !
"you can see all the stars as you walk down Hollywood Blvd."
https://youtu.be/yp_QkUVZGPc Hi Tim and Bill Bill Time has it, The BVD is only a way for me to rate an unknown I only rate the FTS and layoff horses off over 42 days I went through every horse in this demo just to give you an idea Horse 1 Poised for Action He has been off 41 days He only has 1 workout with no BVD % he does show a 2nd place finish against 5.0 Turf horses but that layoff was only 30 days In two other instances of layoff of over 42 day he has done nothing Horse 2 Devine Dental He has been off 53 days He gets a BVD rating of 86 He runs pretty well After breaks of 30-35 days His only other layoff longer than 42 days was an 83-day layoff He returned and won going 1 mile Horse 3 Koan He is been off for 129 days His BVD rating is 102 He won his maiden race After a 33 day layoff but did nothing after a 208 layoff He was only 2 at the time Horse 4 True Boldness Has been running consistantly His last race was 16 days ago So his paceline is all he needs Horse 5 Thefundarelow His last race was 16 days ago. So his paceline is all he needs Horse 6 His Reins Of Fire He has been off 32 days He has a nice 123 BVD with 2 works Horse 7 Wild Willy Dean His last race was 16 days ago So his paceline is all he needs |
09-18-2017, 04:33 PM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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"May the 4 horse be with you"
The 4, with two lines better than the field on RX3 blows them away at 3/1
no peanuts |
09-18-2017, 05:06 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Many Thanks,
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09-18-2017, 07:06 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hey Bill, I never thought about ,what happens with 3 works in 21 days . Yes I think it's only fair to take the best two of the three
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09-19-2017, 09:24 AM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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% criteria??
Anyone know the criteria for when a % is shown or not? See attached.
In the first work the horse was 5th out of 29, so he was better than 24/29 of all who worked that distance or 83% But why no DMR % - 104/110 = 94.6% and best of 18 would either be 100% or 17/18 = 94.4%. Data recording and reliance on the info causes some belief problems, don't you think. This race is a year old, but was the first one I Pulled up at random. I think I stumbled into the answer. The program does not convert % beyond 30 days from today's race! Last edited by Bill Lyster; 09-19-2017 at 09:26 AM. |
09-19-2017, 10:19 AM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,040
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Hi Bill. I just went thru todays' card at Parx and it appears that you are correct about the 30 day cutoff to get a % rating.
Tim
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09-19-2017, 10:37 PM | #19 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Trying to hone
Hi guys
Thanks for the deeper looking at the %BVD numbers In testing, When I've had this situation, I have been doubling the shown % number and taking 10 points away from the total, as a penalty So for race 8 today at Parx the winner Iggy Logo has two works in 21 days following a 40-day layoff I have been rating horses like this as 78 + 78 -10 = 146 BVD Now that I see that on days with less than 5 workouts there is no % number So If a horse works on a day were not too many other horses work There should be no penalty right? Thanks Iggy won, He does pretty well after 30-40 day layoffs |
09-20-2017, 08:05 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,040
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Iggy whistled all the way to easy win.
Tim
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