|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
10-02-2017, 09:56 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
"Hold or Fold?" - FL Race 8 - 10/2/17
Randomly combing through some PP's and found a strong minor sprint stake at the little track in Western NY known as "The Thumb".
Code:
FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM Arctic Queen S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. No nomination fee. $200 to pass the entry box and to start. To be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth 2% to fifth & 1% sixth, seventh and eighth. Weight: Three Year Olds 122 lbs Older 124 lbs; Non-Winners of EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 8-9) |
10-02-2017, 10:02 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
Here are PP's. Look for Monday, October 2nd, Finger Lakes Race 8:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html |
10-02-2017, 10:22 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
Analysis/ESP
Here are my lines. BLT/C with user changes made if necessary.
#1 - Line 2/Early #2 - Line 1/EP #3 - Line 4/EP #4 - Line 1/Early #5 - Line 7/Early #6 - Line 2/Presser #7 - Line 2/EP #8 - Line 1/EP #9 - Line 2/Presser #10 - Line 4/Presser #11 - Line 1/Presser Code:
FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM TRACK MASTER PACELINES (VART) NO PN NAME 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR TV COND 1 1 VICTO2 22.8 45.5 104.8 1-1.0 1-2.0 1-2.5 1-1.3 93 1 FT 2 2 BUSTI1 22.7 45.6 110.4 3-1.1 3-1.1 3-1.6 3-4.3 96 -9 FT 3 3 TOUGH4 22.4 46.4 106.1 1-0.5 1-1.0 1-2.0 1-4.3 80 3 FT 4 4 RIP L1 22.7 46.4 111.9 1-1.0 1-0.5 3-3.5 4-6.8 71 2 FT 5 5 PACHA7 22.4 45.4 111.9 2-1.0 2-1.0 4-2.6 5-7.5 68 5 FT 6 6 BROOK2 22.7 45.6 110.4 6-4.1 6-2.7 4-2.1 2-3.5 98 -9 FT 7 7 BEE N2 22.9 46.0 118.5 4-1.6 4-2.6 1-2.5 1-4.5 88 -2 FT 8 8 SHE'S1 22.2 45.3 110.6 5-2.2 3-2.0 3-3.5 3-4.0 103 -10 FT 9 9 SLAM 2 22.7 45.6 110.4 5-2.6 5-2.2 2-1.5 4-4.8 95 -9 FT 10 10 WONDE4 23.4 46.2 123.5 4-1.6 3-2.0 5-0.8 3-3.8 82 12 FT 11 11 LEMME1 22.7 45.6 110.4 1-1.0 1-1.0 1-1.5 1-3.5 105 -9 FT PACELINE DATA (ADJUSTED) # PN NAME LdNT 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR MAN RC TRKDISTSE 1 1 VICTO2 22.0 44.8 110.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 85 94 SAR 5.5D 2 2 BUSTI1 22.4 45.1 109.5 1.10 1.10 1.60 4.30 84 90 FL 6.0D 3 3 TOUGH4 21.4 45.5 110.9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 81 73 FL 5.5D 4 4 RIP L1 22.2 45.6 110.6 0.00 0.00 3.50 6.80 76 84 FL 6.0D 5 5 PACHA7 21.9 44.7 110.7 1.00 1.00 2.60 7.50 75 87 FL 6.0D 6 6 BROOK2 22.4 45.1 109.5 4.10 2.70 2.10 3.50 85 90 FL 6.0D 7 7 BEE N2 22.3 45.1 110.8 1.60 2.60 0.00 0.00 82 87 AQU 6.5D 8 8 SHE'S1 21.6 44.4 109.1 2.20 2.00 3.50 4.00 86 98 PRX 6.0D 9 9 SLAM 2 22.4 45.1 109.5 2.60 2.20 1.50 4.80 84 90 FL 6.0D 10 10 WONDE4 22.7 45.3 109.7 1.60 2.00 0.80 3.80 83 96 KEE 7.0D 11 11 LEMME1 22.4 45.1 109.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 90 FL 6.0D |
10-02-2017, 11:03 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
I vote "Hold"
#11 looks the fastest visual "Early", and the other earlies will be hard pressed to catch.
Code:
FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE HIDE# PNcNAME Ld SR BAL LS TIE ODDS TRKDISTS M/L DAYS AGE 6 11 LEMME1 88 4 23.5 EVEN FL 6.0D 5/1 28 6 90 7 4 8 SHE'S1 86 5 17.5 5-2 PRX 6.0D 3/1 15 4 98 0 3 6 BROOK2 85 6 16.3 3-1 FL 6.0D 15/1 16 4 90 7 1 1 VICTO2 85 7 13.8 * 4-1 SAR 5.5D 6/1 41 4 94 1 2 2 BUSTI1 84 7 13.8 * 4-1 FL 6.0D 7/2 28 4 90 7 5 9 SLAM 2 84 8 12.3 9-2 FL 6.0D 10/1 16 5 90 7 SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐ │ PRIM │ SUPP │ │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│ │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│T│E│T│T│ ┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│O│N│S│P│ │#│PNcNAME Ld │ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│T│T│ │P│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤ │1│ 1 VICTO2 │ 85│ 7│1│3│26│4│24│5││3│6│6││EAR│ 0.9││1│6│3│5│6│3│2│5│3│6│4│6│ │2│ 2 BUSTI1 │ 84│ 7│6│5│26│4│21│4││4│4│5││E/P│ 4.2││3│4│5│3│4│4│3│4│5│3│5│4│ │3│ 6 BROOK2 │ 85│ 6│2│4│22│3│15│3││6│3│2││PRE│ 5.8││5│2│4│1│1│5│4│3│4│2│3│3│ │4│ 8 SHE'S1 │ 86│ 5│3│2│20│2│12│2││1│2│3││E/P│ ││1│5│2│4│5│2│1│2│2│4│2│2│ │5│ 9 SLAM 2 │ 84│ 8│4│6│29│5│28│6││5│5│4││PRE│ 5.3││4│3│6│2│3│6│5│6│6│5│6│5│ │6│11 LEMME1 │ 88│ 4│5│1│11│1│ 5│1││2│1│1││PRE│ 3.0││2│1│1│3│2│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│ └─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘ |
10-02-2017, 11:06 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
To clarify on my ESP: those are Energy Run Styles based on the Median% of the lines that I selected. #11, who I labeled as a visual "Early" horse, has a Median% output of presser.
|
10-02-2017, 11:45 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
|
Fl
Interesting race. I like the 8 and 10 because they seem to like running against fast pace races. The 1 bothers me he looks like the speed of the speed. He can run quarters in 21.4 and 21.2, so he may get the jump on the rest of the speed. Breaking from the 1 hole the jock has no choice but to gun him.
Bob |
10-02-2017, 04:12 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
|
Fl r8
Just a couple of notes: Horse #1 hasn't won beyond 5.5f in the past performances showing. #5 wins have been at routes with best finish in sprint third, but behind 7 1/2 lengths. #6's main jockey stays with the #1 horse. # 8 has a second in its only FL try. #10 hasn't won off a layoff.
I like that #11 has won from 4 1/2 lengths off at second call as there seems to be enough early speed to be that far back. #7 will get first jump vs #11 she has been back 2 1/2 lengths and won. Finally #8 has finished 1st Mth vs 21.3, 44.4 and 2nd vs 22.0 - 44.8. My choices: 7-8-11 Ray |
10-02-2017, 05:03 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
|
FL Result
Time of Race: 22.20 - 45.68 - 58.46 - 71.46
Winner: #10 won by a nose in a head bobbing finish. Place: #7 coming on fast in stretch when jockey ranked on left rein (trying to get lead change?) and then missed in a close finish. Show: #8 In a photo for 3rd with #3 and won by about 1 inch. #11 had almost a perfect X-O (good race-bad race) pattern and was due for a bad race. He gave it and finished last. I tried to forgive the pattern even tho his last race had bounce written all over it with winning while earning her highest speed rating at the distance and on dirt. How does everyone deal with a horse like this as its last race is clearly a "+" race and no need to go back for a different race. Ray |
10-02-2017, 07:22 PM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
Quote:
|
|
10-03-2017, 12:19 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
|
This race is just a case of one horse being EVERYTHING. It doesn't leave you much to choose from.
All my usual guidelines apply.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Pace lines- Another Look from Omar | Bill V. | Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) | 3 | 04-03-2017 10:31 PM |
Adjustments Question | Ted Craven | RDSS2 / FAQ's | 3 | 06-29-2014 03:22 PM |
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST | Ted Craven | August Contest | 1 | 07-24-2012 10:09 PM |
Del Mar Race 9 | Bill V. | General Discussion | 2 | 07-23-2012 09:40 PM |
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles | Ted Craven | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 19 | 03-22-2010 06:06 PM |