Saturday Night Delta Stakes Sprint - Projected "E" - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 02-03-2012, 08:34 AM

Here is the 6th tomorrow night from Delta Downs. A full field dash going 5f for 100 grand!

Lets project from the #4's last race at this track and distance, on the lead at both calls

Proj Pace = 21.4 - 45.2 - these are in fifths of a second

I punched in the proj pace and the lines you see on each of the runners highlighted match or exceed the pace. Running styles are my designations.

Showing tandems on the middle tab

The very best of luck/skill to all those once again testing the Cajun waters

This time from a different track

RichieP · 02-03-2012, 08:35 AM

...

RichieP · 02-03-2012, 08:36 AM

..

alydar_ David · 02-03-2012, 09:46 AM

Looks like you picked a real humdinger, Richie. LOL!

raceman5 · 02-03-2012, 06:46 PM

i like 3-2-4

Bob

Bill Lyster · 02-03-2012, 08:49 PM

tons of speed and the speed balls need to be in first or second place at first and 2nd call. Race goes OTE

The 5 has broken as late as 5th and can win from 3rd or 5th, but even when a couple of lengths off the lead. The 8 has won from 4th but only before leading at 2nd call.

My pick is the 5 and then the 8 and box the two for exacta purposes.

Bill

JIMBOB1002 · 02-03-2012, 10:32 PM

I like 2-4-5. Jim

alydar_ David · 02-04-2012, 01:36 PM

I'd call this a chaos race, too many arrows pointing in different directions.

Dick Mitchell suggested betting the five biggest exactas among your contenders in a chaos race. That might be one way to go.

One thing for sure, I wouldn't take short odds an any horse in this race.

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PeteC · 02-04-2012, 01:46 PM

Scratch #1 and #12…

Many E and E/P’s here: 2,4,6,8,10 and 11. The 3,5,7 and 9 are OTE. The 2 comes off a win on the turf at 5F. I went back to line 2 at 6F on dirt running 21.8 44.7 57.0 (using the stretch call time which will be today’s finish at 5F). This horse has won from anywhere from 1st through 4th at the 1C.

The 4 is the projected pace horse against 21.9 45.5. Its best races are against 2C’s a bit slower than the 2…OUT

#6 and #8 have been beaten recently by the 2…OUT

#10 and #11 have not done well against faster than mid-45…OUT

I’ll take #2 to win and #5 to complete the exacta…

lsosa54 · 02-04-2012, 02:14 PM

The 5f profile for Delta is extremely early. For the last 202 races, the preferred running style is E from the inside posts and 39% of winners have wired the field. It's held over the last 9 races with the wire to wire percent at 44%.

Slightly less early than the profile for last week's race at FG, which has wire to wire percents of 43% over 46 races and 67% for the last 6. Same E and inside posts preferences.

Very hard to win from outside posts at these distances in full fields.

Eyeballing the contenders, I'd probably further analyze the 1,2,4. For a bomb in the exotics, maybe the 9 and 11

Good luck to all

02-03-2012, 08:36 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	.. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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02-03-2012, 08:34 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Saturday Night Delta Stakes Sprint - Projected "E" Here is the 6th tomorrow night from Delta Downs. A full field dash going 5f for 100 grand! Lets project from the #4's last race at this track and distance, on the lead at both calls Proj Pace = 21.4 - 45.2 - these are in fifths of a second I punched in the proj pace and the lines you see on each of the runners highlighted match or exceed the pace. Running styles are my designations. Showing tandems on the middle tab The very best of luck/skill to all those once again testing the Cajun waters This time from a different track Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

02-03-2012, 08:35 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	... Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

02-03-2012, 09:46 AM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Looks like you picked a real humdinger, Richie. LOL!

02-03-2012, 06:46 PM	#5
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	delta i like 3-2-4 Bob

02-03-2012, 08:49 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	tons of speed and the speed balls need to be in first or second place at first and 2nd call. Race goes OTE The 5 has broken as late as 5th and can win from 3rd or 5th, but even when a couple of lengths off the lead. The 8 has won from 4th but only before leading at 2nd call. My pick is the 5 and then the 8 and box the two for exacta purposes. Bill

02-03-2012, 10:32 PM	#7
JIMBOB1002 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: Heath Ohio Posts: 420	I like 2-4-5. Jim

02-04-2012, 01:36 PM	#8
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I'd call this a chaos race, too many arrows pointing in different directions. Dick Mitchell suggested betting the five biggest exactas among your contenders in a chaos race. That might be one way to go. One thing for sure, I wouldn't take short odds an any horse in this race.

02-04-2012, 01:46 PM	#9
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Scratch #1 and #12… Many E and E/P’s here: 2,4,6,8,10 and 11. The 3,5,7 and 9 are OTE. The 2 comes off a win on the turf at 5F. I went back to line 2 at 6F on dirt running 21.8 44.7 57.0 (using the stretch call time which will be today’s finish at 5F). This horse has won from anywhere from 1st through 4th at the 1C. The 4 is the projected pace horse against 21.9 45.5. Its best races are against 2C’s a bit slower than the 2…OUT #6 and #8 have been beaten recently by the 2…OUT #10 and #11 have not done well against faster than mid-45…OUT I’ll take #2 to win and #5 to complete the exacta…

02-04-2012, 02:14 PM	#10
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	The 5f profile for Delta is extremely early. For the last 202 races, the preferred running style is E from the inside posts and 39% of winners have wired the field. It's held over the last 9 races with the wire to wire percent at 44%. Slightly less early than the profile for last week's race at FG, which has wire to wire percents of 43% over 46 races and 67% for the last 6. Same E and inside posts preferences. Very hard to win from outside posts at these distances in full fields. Eyeballing the contenders, I'd probably further analyze the 1,2,4. For a bomb in the exotics, maybe the 9 and 11 Good luck to all