Pace lines

[shoeless]

When picking pacelines Im trying to get the most recent race at today's distance and surface.But the first thing I will look at is the conditions of today's race which I feel most people will completely ignore.

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

If you know or have access to the information, how many days do you have to account for from a last race in order to get 90% of all winners and 95% of all winners? Or put another way 90% of all winners have had a race within ___ days?; 95% of all winners have had a race within __ days?

Thanks,


Bill

[matthewsiv]

Please excuse my ignorance but I am a newbie.

I am completely new to the site and the method,but I believe that this must be the most difficult decision to be made.

Personally I believe that the line you use must be at the least on the same surface and distance and preferably on the same track.

Would you rather use a paceline of 12 months or older to achieve the above or would you just use present form off of the horses last 3 races.

I do not believe that you can turn a 6 furlong horse into a 8f horse,but I do believe that you can stretch out to 7f and 8f horse can win a 7f race if the pace is strong and the track has a long straight.

Please do not bite my head off,this is just a personal view.
Any advice would be greatly received.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Morning "FTL"
Just a note that a friend who keeps copious records and database tells me the figure for horses winning off more than 45 days back is actually 18%. 45 days and sooner the number is 82%.

Class "A" and "B" tracks covered.

Ritchie,

Thanks for that note. I’m quite sure that the information provided to you by your friend is accurate, in his data bases.
Let me take a minute to elaborate on my original post, since I thought providing the past years worth of statistics would be sufficient to make a point and evidently it was not. I am now in my 13th year of compiling data. You’ll recall that I download all the tracks I want, every day they run, 365 days a year. Although each year is not identical to any other year with regard to the number of races and horses in that year, each year does average approximately 350,000 horses. Doing the math you will see that I have well over 4,000,000 (four million) horses in my data bases. Now THAT is a copious amount of data! From these 4,000,000+ horses covering 12+ years, I can tell you with some degree of accuracy that the percentage of winners whose last race was more than 45 days ago falls between 12% and 13%.
With that much data, I’m just going to have to believe it.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by barb craven

FTL
Would you consider an older line for a horse that hadn't raced for more than 45 days if it had been working out regularly in the meantime?

Barb,

I am not a fan of workouts. Years ago there was one pattern I use to look for with either first time starters or horses that have been OFF. That pattern was 3 workouts, 4 days apart, with the most recent workout being 4 days prior to the race. As you might well imagine, results are hit and miss.

To answer your question, "no", if you read my post to Ritchie you will see that with all the data I have, last race more than 45 days ago puts you pretty much between a rock and a hard place before you begin. I am sure that many of these horses were working out, but the data is the data. It's not my opinion, it's a matter of relience on years of data.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Buzz

Morning,

This is a subject that always interests me and I will glad to add my 2 cents to the discussion.

I am not sure what the focus and purpose of the thread is; however, I would like to suggest that you include price as a factor and break out wins by odds ranges as a criterion when appropriate.

If there is an agenda here please let me know so I don't contribute to thread drift.


Buzz

Buzz,

The focus here is as indicated by Bill V., "Pace Line Selection". Bill set forth the methodology guidelines in this respect as "best of last three". I am just trying to stimulate a discusion on this topic, so anything you have to add is important to same.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by lbj

The last 3 pacelines might tell you the horse Current Form, but not is Pace-Class abilities, for that you must go further down in the horse chart

In some cases 'yes' and in other cases 'no'. So let's take the scenario where the answer is 'yes'. What good is a line from 6, 9 or 12 months ago if the horse is not in condition to run back to that line?

Would you not be better served by using a more current line that reflects the horses current abilities?

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by shoeless

When picking pacelines Im trying to get the most recent race at today's distance and surface.But the first thing I will look at is the conditions of today's race which I feel most people will completely ignore.

Shoeless,

A VERY GOOD point.

What many younger people are not aware of is, 40 years ago this information was not even in the "MORNING TELEGRAPH", which was the east coast past performances. In those days there was no RACING FORM on the east coast. An 'oldtimer' back then told me to save my Morning Telegraphs so I could look at the conditions. He told me it was those conditions that were the key to the race.
In those days not only weren't the race restrictions in the form for claimers or allowance races, but there was no 3YO and up designations, no state breed designations, no Beyers numbers and on and on.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Using a creative approach or your intuition of what may be about to happen will probably help in finding those nicer priced horses.

I prefer Jim Bradshaw' s Match Up concepts

Charlie,

Meaning no disrespect to Jim Bradshaw in any way, shape or form, which would be silly to do since he contributed so much, but I don't think he invented the match-up process, rather, I think he popularized it and added to what already existed. He also had the benefit of computers.
40 years ago a good friend of mine and I would go to the track armed with our Morning Telegraphs (see my post to Shoeless) and a pencil or pen. No computers then. Nevertheless, we would compare times for horses at each call and attempt to figure out if the horse we thought would have the lead could win or if another horse would close to beat it. I'm sure we were not the only ones employing this approach.
My favorite quote from Jim Bradshaw and I will paraphrase," Horse racing is an easy game. One horse gets the lead and if no other horse can pass it, it wins".
If you still have your form from last nights' races at Penn National, take a look at the 7th race. No computer, just look at the horses. I believe if Jim Bradshaw was looking at this race he would have gone to the window and bet the winner with both hands. There is only one early horse. The winner @ $27.
Sometimes those "nicer priced horses" you mentioned are right there in front of you, sticking out like a sore thumb!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

The pace lines to select are those that best represent the horses ability against todays Projected Pace.

Charlie,

Ah, but which lines are they? The methodology guideline is "best of last three".
Are we trying to "manufacture" a winner by looking for the best race he ever ran regardless of how old it is, or looking for the best horse "today" based on current form and condition?