Pace lines

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Judicious Player

I do not blindly look for a horse's best race when choosing a pace line.

Before I pick a pace line, I try to determine today's pace, based on the horses entered in the race. Then, I pick a paceline that is as close as possible to TODAY's projected pace, which, may or may not be, the horses's best race.

In other words, how will the horse fare against today's projected pace?

EXACTLY projection is the key

[tizlinda]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

FTL

This tutorial explains better than i ever could.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5623


The True contenders in todays race is what we are looking for i think and the variables you use to find these is entirely down to personal choice as some will give more weight to one particular variable than another as you can see from Jeff and Tims posts on race conditions.

This tutorial seems to suggest picking todays pace based on the fastest last pace at todays distance from a horse that contended. This disregards the LB of the contending horse which means that it would in no way predict todays pace (or explain to me how it would if I'm missing something).

I have been trying to actually predict the pace based on how many early horses there are and what they are capable of. With no early horses why wouldn't you factor in BL and adust the paceline accordingly? How is choosing a paceline that a horse not in contention today created predicting todays race fractions?

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

For The Lead,

Further, a caveat to recency (which I think is not contradicted by your stats on winners, as presented), is that for many of us, we're seeking contenders for ALL pools, thus while a certain share of winners pay uninteresting mutuels (which differs by track), knowing the place horse or legitimate other in-the-money horses gives also the opportunity to participate in place and vertical exotic pools. Laid-off horses working their way back to form will place and show along their route to the winner's circle, so I want to include them in my analysis today, then vet them as appropriate for the win wagers.

Ted

Re: The above post particularly the last sentence. I like to use William Scotts study on The "Fabulous " Five Furlong Workout, cited in his book "HWYHRT".
For those who have the book pages 42-51. He throws out statistical data from his own studies to support the effectiveness of the five furlong workout
in order to qualify a laid off horse.

His main point is, the horse can be considereded to be a contender for workouts of five furlongs or longer that occur within the past 14 days,
no matter what the time may be and no matter how long the horse may have been away from the race.

I have been using this in my handicapping effectively and I can post many races in my archives to demonstarte this. In fact this is the only effective tool that I know of that can qualify laid off horses. Below is an example of a horse that won and paid $16. Notice that there were 2 five furlong workous within 14 days. Many of these laid-off horses place and show hence I always check out these type of horses as part of my handicapping process.


Ernie

[admin]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Re: The above post particularly the last sentence. I like to use William Scotts study on The "Fabulous " Five Furlong Workout, cited in his book "HWYHRT".
For those who have the book pages 42-51. He throws out statistical data from his own studies to support the effectiveness of the five furlong workout
in order to qualify a laid off horse.

His main point is, the horse can be considereded to be a contender for workouts of five furlongs or longer that occur within the past 14 days,
no matter what the time may be and no matter how long the horse may have been away from the race.

I have been using this in my handicapping effectively and I can post many races in my archives to demonstrate this. In fact this is the only effective tool that I know of that can qualify laid off horses. Below is an example of a horse that won and paid $16. Notice that there were 2 five furlong workouts within 14 days. Many of these laid-off horses place and show hence I always check out these type of ehorses as part of my handicapping process.


Ernie

Thanks for the feedback regarding 5f works to qualify layoff guys Ernie. I am definitely going to check this out man cause I have no fear betting layoff guys but know that most flame out.

I will definitely see whats what with this "angle"!

Again many thanks for sharing!
RichieP

[Bill V.]

Ernie
Good points about the 5f workouts Your $16 winner is a good example
Also in the book HWYHRT on page 51 Wm Scott talks about the 5F
when looking at Young lightly raced horses and how horses with slow 5F
works are not showing any life and can be tossed from win contention

things to watch
1. the 5 furlong must be within 7 days = check
2. must be a bullet work this won is not a bullet because it was 10th out of 34
but the time was under 1.00 so that qaulifice as FAST = Check
3. The workout 13 days ago was 3/10 and less than 14 days = check

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Ernie
Good points about the 5f workouts Your $16 winner is a good example
Also in the book HWYHRT on page 51 Wm Scott talks about the 5F
when looking at Young lightly raced horses and how horses with slow 5F
works are not showing any life and can be tossed from win contention

things to watch
1. the 5 furlong must be within 7 days = check
2. must be a bullet work this won is not a bullet because it was 10th out of 34
but the time was under 1.00 so that qaulifice as FAST = Check
3. The workout 13 days ago was 3/10 and less than 14 days = check

Thanks for the feedback..Scott makes great points. I feel it is worth the
effort to consider this situation and other situations that he presents in the
book such as the "Big Win" meaning 3 lengths or more.

With reference to point 1 above the 5 furlong workout must be within 14 days.
Refer to page 51 for the summary. You may be referring to the "The Potency of
the Seven-Day Horse".

Ernie