New to RDSS

[joefour]

Hi,

I'm new to RDSS and was wondering if someone could help me with several questions I am having trouble finding answers to in prior postings. First, what is the difference between Pace of the Horse and Pace of the Race? Secondly, What is the difference between Total Energy shown under the tabs PoH, PoR and the Energy Tab. They are all different! Lastly, why do the horse(s) shown having the greatest energy rating often are not the first ones nearest the finish line under the segments tab?

[Ted Craven]

Hi Joe, and welcome!

Pace of Horse (PoH) is the Pace of the Race (PoR) plus/minus lengths gained/lost during each race segment. PoR is a short-hand for the times set by the front-runner at each call point of the race (Call1, Call2 Finish). Thus, a gate-to-wire winner will have the same PoH and PoR numbers: the horse WAS the Pace of the Race.

Total Energy (TE), when not otherwise qualified, refers to the Total Energy of the Horse: the sum of the 3 fractional velocities of the horse itself (F1+F2+F3 velocity = Total Energy; i.e. the velocities of the horse itself, adjusted for lengths gained/lost). We show 2 Velocity screens: PoH and PoR - and the difference between the 2 is that the Horse (PoH) is adjusted for beaten lengths gained/lost while the PoR screen shows the velocity resulting from measuring the running times of the front runner at each point.

It is important to note when a horse has faced a fast PoR (perhaps the fastest it has ever, or recently, faced). If the horse shows a credible run against such a fast pace, closing steadily, finishing in the money or up close at one or more points, you can also infer that it is in some kind of shape (of course, facing a healthy PoR in tis recent races is all relative to what PoR's other horses have faced too). You see the PoR shown to the right of the Original Screen, and on the PoR Velocity screen.

Otherwise, all Total Energy (TE) readouts are the Total Energy of the horse itself, and are ALL identical - they do NOT differ over the different screens.

Please consider these screens:





The PoR and PoH Total Energy are summarized at the right side of the Original screen, but are otherwise drawn from the respective Velocity screens (and you can see how Total Energy = the sum of the F1+F2+F3 velocity numbers). Note how the gate-to-wire 2nd race of the horse: the PoR and PoH Total Energy numbers (and fractional velocities) are identical - it WAS the pace of the race.

Total Energy (for the horse) appears on many different screens, because it is an important relative measurement of that race's strength. It is identical on all screens (TE differs only when we're talking about Total Energy of the race, not the horse, i.e. Pace of Race).

You asked about why the Final Segments panel (right-most one, labelled TS+F3) does not match Total Energy. That panel shows (as captioned) the average of True Speed (average velocity from beginning to end) and F3 (Fraction 3 velocity). The answer is: that panel is weighted by the 3rd fraction performance of the horse. We not only want to see the final time speed (i.e. speed rating) of the horse, we want to know, relatively, how much of it they disburse in the run from the 2nd call point to the finish line (where it counts).

Consider the following screens:





On the Segments screen, Beaten Lengths at the Finish, this measure is identical to True Speed (average velocity from beginning to end, as shown on the Velocity screen TS column = same thing). The top 3 horses rank 2-6-3 on Final/TS (the natural sort of the Segments screen) yet 3-6-2 on TS+F3 - SO, the difference must be the mixing in of the F3 velocity. And when we look at the Velocity screen (below the Segments screen image) we indeed see that the F3 rank is 3-6-2, so the additional weighting of the F3 component of that final Segments panel - in this instance - tips the ranking toward F3.

Here is how the race ran:



Hope this explains the inter-relationships between some of the screens. We have not discussed here how the line score of the various compound factors are weighted in the BL/BL screen (Bottom Line/Betting Line - the Line Score). And on that BL/BL screen (shown next post), the Winner #6 is shown effectively co-equal to the #2 (and superior to the heavy favourite #3), thus at the odds, a natural bet somehow.

Any questions, fire away!

Ted

[Ted Craven]

The Bottom Line/Betting Line screen:



Joe, a good summary comment about the importance of seeing how the horse either sets or overcomes the Pace of the Race, is given in this quote in another recent post, of a quote from an old article by Dr Sartin on Pace of Race analysis as once (and perennially) espoused by the late great Ray Taulbot:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8910

"But best of all, Ray Taulbot stated for posterity (paraphrased), “The superior horse is one that can set or overcome the speed of the pace against which it ran.”

In a 1995 American Turf Monthly article, Doc Howard Sartin elaborated on Taulbot’s pace philosophy: “Taulbot’s premise was that the pace of the race itself matters at least as much as the actual pace of the horse – how well a horse handled the pace of the race it ran against. He placed particular emphasis on horses that could overcome the fastest second call and secondary importance on those leading at the second call”……..”

In this era of so many short prices from obvious choices, it behooves us to gain the ability to find longshots. I know of no better source than the “pace of the race – pace of the horse” relationship as postulated by the late Ray Taulbot.”

[joefour]

Again, Ted, thanks for the detailed answers. Something else that I've been wondering about. I've been experimenting in RDSS 1 with match ups. If I then do the same race in RDSS 2, the times of the calls from RDSS 1 then show up on the calls buttons above the running line on the analysis screen of RDSS 2, and the running lines are also now color-coded just like in RDSS 1. What is the interrelationship between the two versions of RDSS? Should I be handicapping a race in RDSS 1 before doing it in RDSS 2? The matchup screen in RDSS 2 says it is not functional yet.

[Ted Craven]

Joe,

The inter-relationship between the 2 versions is simple: they both share the same database, where ALL the data is stored (the file is c:\rdss\data\data.db) That's how Projected Pace selections made in RDSS1 are known to RDSS2 (pacelines selected in RDSS1 are not carried over to RDSS2 though).

Projected Pace is a matchup tool to see how horse's raw running times relate to the likely Early horse - if other Earlies cannot keep up to bona fide raw times of the fastest early, they are poor candidates to get their preferred position today and can be eliminated for the Win position.

Tandems (itemizing and ranking common races run by today's participants) are another matchup tool which appear in RDSS1 though not yet in RDSS2. My plan has been to implement a more broad based comparison of raw and adjusted factors using ALL lines from ALL horses, which is the data set from which Tandems are derived. Tandems (and this new composite factor portrayal - memories of 'Pre-Analysis' for any old Speculator users out there). Not in this upcoming update, but the following one. Right now, you have to eyeball common races between horses.

The Matchup screen in RDSS2 is simply a place-holder for where Tandems and other Matchup info will appear.

Ted

[lenabugg]

TED,WHEN DEALING WITH CLASS AND IT COMES UP GREEN-RED-YELLOW IS THAT THE CLASS OF THE PACELINE THAT IS PICK OR THE TRUE CLASS RATING.IN USING THE RDSS { BOTH] .dont you think one need to know the totel or avg.rating .if a horse has been runnig lets say 20,000is 5 out of his 8 races and the software is only picking his one of last 3 at 5000 isn't that misleading. HELP.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by lenabugg

TED,WHEN DEALING WITH CLASS AND IT COMES UP GREEN-RED-YELLOW IS THAT THE CLASS OF THE PACELINE THAT IS PICK OR THE TRUE CLASS RATING.IN USING THE RDSS { BOTH] .dont you think one need to know the totel or avg.rating .if a horse has been runnig lets say 20,000is 5 out of his 8 races and the software is only picking his one of last 3 at 5000 isn't that misleading. HELP.

When you say 'dealing with class' do you refer to the Class Rating (colour coded Red Green Yellow and bold for rank 1, rank 2, rank 3, rank 4)?



If so, I can respond further with a bunch of details. If you meant something else, can you clarify?

Ted

[Hoof 11]

I think he is asking if the class ratings are overall ratings or single race ratings. I take the class ratings as overall ratings over the horses career.

I'm curious to know how RDSS comes up with these ratings, it can be subjective depending on how you look at it. I find your formula to be very good compared to other ratings i've seen (Bris ratings for example). On occasion i have come across some head scratchers, like a horse that has been running in 70,000 ALW races most of it's career and today it's running against 20,000 claimers, and the rest of the field has mostly run in cheap claiming races, yet the ALW horse gets no class rating in the top 3.

Does the horse have to have success at that class level to be considered? I came across this a couple of weeks ago, and the ALW horse produced nothing at that level.

[Ted Craven]

If that's what he's asking, the yes indeed the CR Class Rating is a rating based on the horses overall recent performance, not on single selected races.

CR is based on Earnings, Consistency and Average Purse Value relative to today's purse, in the most recent 6 starts this year, or on all starts this year and last year if less than 6 starts this year. It has nothing to do with the conditions of those races or of today's race (i.e. Claiming, Allowance, etc).

The precise formula for CR and APV is published in Follow Up #5, Page 7 (check the Library).

Here is a link to the RDSS V0.97.0 Release Notes, where APV and CR were introduced, with some further notes (please see point #3)

This is an overall measurement of the horse's competitiveness and consistency, relative to today's class level of race as expressed by Purse Value (thus earnings) and not by velocity or how it ran against the pace of race, nor on the horse's movements up and down the race condition hierarchy. It also does not factor in recency, current fitness, suitability to today's pace matchup, etc. These latter Condender measurements are done by selecting representative recent pacelines (single lines, but hopefully corroborated by other lines when the horse ran well and was fit and properly placed).

Interestingly, CR and APV (Average Purse Value, a portion of which is used in the CR calculation) since they are based on money earnings and consistency and not on speed or velocity or deceleration - are non-correlated variables (i.e. they are based on different measures) - so, when you get a degree of match between Contenders which rank well on CR and which also rank well on velocity/energy measurements (and also appear to be in good current form) - you then have the synergy of looking at the horse from 2 different directions and confirmation that it is real today.

Hope that helps,

Ted

[lenabugg]

Hi,Ted and Hoof 11.
that is what I'm asking under the rating that comes up in color is that his overall rating or the rating you get just from which paceline that is picked. I WAS AT THE TRACK LOOKING AT THE BOOK AND SAW A HORSE THAT HAD BEEN RUNNING AT A HIGHER CLASS FOR ABOUT 4 RACES ,BUT THAT NIGHT HIS LAST 2-3 RACES HE RAN FOR MUCH LOWER CLASS LIKE 6-5 AND HE WIRED THE FIELD. I MISSED HIM AND I DIDN'T HAVE MY RDSS WITH ME.POINT IS THAT ISTHE COLORED CLASS RATING TRUE CLASS OR WHAT.I HOPE THIS WILL HELP YOU.HE HAD BEEN RUNNING FOR ALW.AND 20,000 RACES ANDHIS LAST FEW FOR BETWEEN 5AND 7000.