Nearctic Stakes Oct 19/14

[Hoof 11]

Grade 2 - $300,000 – 6F Turf – Race 8

[Hoof 11]

Nearctic Stakes – Race 8

Going Stick Rating – 9.6 (Good)

Turf Sprints at Woodbine have generally catered to “Early” horses, in 17 races this season 41% have wired the field.

The two expected “E” types are the 8 and 9. The 9 is the only horse in the field that has the ability to win off of fast fractions, but seeing that it put up a personal best last time out i am going to avoid this horse, i am not a fan of horses that have put up a personal best last time out.

At first glance, Excaper and Calgary Cat look to be the two favorites of the field, both have top Total Energy ratings, with Excaper training well leading up to today. Excaper is coming off a 70 day layoff and generally puts out a good effort off the shelf, but the early fractions and the short distance does not suit this horse. Calgary Cat is the big closer of the field, but seeing that he put up a personal best last time out as well as never having have success with fast early fractions, i am going to avoid this fella in the win hole.

The M/L favorite Lockout looks to be inviting, top Total Energy rating, training well, cutting back, top 10 barn. But much like Excaper, the fast fractions and distance does not suit this horse, that and he has one claiming win in the last two years, no thanks.

That leaves me with Black Hornet, a solid front runner with outstanding early fractions. He is a top Total Energy horse that is training like a champ, and is the only other horse from a top ten barn with a great trainer/jockey combo. He is a consistent runner at this distance but my only concern is the surface, we shall see...

Race 8

8 – Black Hornet

Horizontal Selections – 8-5-2

[Hoof 11]

Freakin Euro's!