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Old 02-21-2020, 06:35 PM   #1
ScottB
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Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 53
The Win Takeout Myth

I was looking at the 8th race at Laurel Park today. I was liking the #7 horse who was going off @ 7-1. I was looking to bet $50 win. In other words I was going to lay $50 vs $350. That is a decent ROI at any track.

At this point can anyone explain to me how the win takeout is relevent in this situation?

The horse wound up winning paying $17.00 for a plus $375 on a $50 wager.

Instead of the selector obsessing over the win takeout which is a fact of life, he would be better served to learn how to pinpoint winners paying decent mutuals to maintain a positive ROI.

A selector who cannot pinpoint these winners will have little or no chance for lasting success in this field.
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Old 02-21-2020, 07:05 PM   #2
Lefty
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If the takeout was lower your horse would be even higher odds the way i see it.
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Old 02-21-2020, 07:06 PM   #3
Mitch44
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As I've said before, on any good price winner I've had, I never take time to see what the payoff would be with a different takeout.

Its all about nothing if you can't get winners. Another way I look at this is that we all have the same take out or a level playing field as far as that.With that level playing field it comes down to having more skill than others. I get a thrill with each winner regardless of the takeout on my bet or what it pays.

One could also look at this way, without the track acting as a holder of the money many would not pay you? Additionally much of that takeout money goes back into racing in the form of purses, safety, insurance . . . etc. How would the tracks survive without the takeout? Yea I know don't do away with it just reduce it. It easy to run someone else's business isn't it. Even with the present day take outs many tracks are barely surviving. Takeout never enters my mind either before or after a bet.


If you lose sleep or takeout interferes with your handicapping, only play tracks with the least takeout on your favorite type bets. Easy solution and problem solved.

Nice bet ScottB, glad you made some money, also wish you much success in the future.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 02-21-2020 at 07:14 PM.
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Old 02-22-2020, 08:55 AM   #4
ScottB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lefty View Post
If the takeout was lower your horse would be even higher odds the way i see it.
Yes, and if it wasn’t for taxes my paychecks would have been bigger too!
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Old 02-22-2020, 09:51 AM   #5
rdiam
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ScottB:

Your example does not support your case. In fact, in other posts you actually have shown how much takeout matters: that is, you use a "minimum" required odds to place a win bet. Let's say u like a horse via your handicapping, and your minimum odds requirement on that race is 4-1. You look up at the board and see 3-1 and pass. The horse wins. Your handicapping was accurate, but you win nothing.

If the takeout was lower, that same 3-1 horse would show up at 4-1, which would meet your odds requirement, you would bet it, and win $.

Sartin often spoke of having a personal 5-2 odds requirement minimum in his betting scheme. A higher takeout would have these horses show up at 2-1, and his wager capping would be thwarted by the higher takeout.

If you are going to use to tote board to bet, as you claim, you will win more $ with a lower takeout. That is why takeout matters. Your opinion on takeout is not supported by facts.

Richard
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Old 02-22-2020, 10:50 AM   #6
ScottB
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Richard:

Takeout is a fact of life that we all have to live with if we decide to invest in horse racing. Just like you pay to use RDSS and I pay to purchase the Racing Form. It is an expense required to be involved. We all bite the bullet.

The most important factor is sifting thru races to find winners at decent prices to keep your ROI positive. The bottom line is what counts to be successful in this game. I wish you the best of luck in your horse racing endeavors.

I’m old fashioned so the only exotics I play are the DD and exactas where I can see the approx payoffs. On Kentucky Derby day I will invest in some of the bigger exotics when the payoffs will be bigger.

Scott

Last edited by ScottB; 02-22-2020 at 10:58 AM.
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Old 02-22-2020, 07:30 PM   #7
Lefty
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Scott, Yes takeout is a fact of life, but that doesn't obviate the fact that if the takeout was less horses would be better odds. takeout is not a myth. It's just something we have to live with.
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Old 02-27-2020, 06:54 PM   #8
Raptor
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Maybe you all can live with it.
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:00 PM   #9
tom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
I was looking at the 8th race at Laurel Park today. I was liking the #7 horse who was going off @ 7-1. I was looking to bet $50 win. In other words I was going to lay $50 vs $350. That is a decent ROI at any track.

At this point can anyone explain to me how the win takeout is relevent in this situation?

The horse wound up winning paying $17.00 for a plus $375 on a $50 wager.

Instead of the selector obsessing over the win takeout which is a fact of life, he would be better served to learn how to pinpoint winners paying decent mutuals to maintain a positive ROI.

A selector who cannot pinpoint these winners will have little or no chance for lasting success in this field.
It is relevant because it is what decided the final odds that you got. If take out is less, you will get more of these good opportunities, and if it is higher, you will find less of them.

The TO is reflected in the final odds.
You cannot get around that.

People "obsess" over the TO because it makes many good horse poor bets.

All anyone needs to know is the final odds.
The ones you get around the 1/8th pole!
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:12 PM   #10
Raptor
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It's too high--

anyway you slice it because

It's not competitive and that's the problem.
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