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Old 07-27-2009, 12:28 PM   #1
Tim Y
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E/L to find biases

9th race - Hastings Racecourse - July 26, 2009

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Equity Gainer Garry Cruise 64.70 22.20 5.90
3 Dancewitharanger Pedro Alvarado 11.70 4.90
4 Sparkling Notion Juan Carlos Gutierrez 2.50
Also ran: 1 - Half a Hero , 9 - Zippy Zak , 5 - My Friend Geoff , 2 - Slick
Victor
Scratched horses: Above the Clouds , Tough Torque

Look how Spec caught these three by reading that the track (inundated by a freaky thunderstorm the night before) was running a lot later than usual. The e/l after three races said about 35% LOWER than normal was the range and sure enough the crowd missed. Just noticed it had the super as well. AMAZING

The E/L is the Greatest for picking up bias.
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Old 07-27-2009, 12:41 PM   #2
Tim Y
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Pace line selection on the 8 was based upon BEST lines since it was a layoff. ALWAYS consider how well a horse did against the fastest pace it was attempting
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Old 07-27-2009, 01:15 PM   #3
Ted Craven
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Just for the record, that's not the E/L Diff graph in Speculator - it's the Match Up Graph (MUG), but you're right, the TP+F3 readout does show the Winner #1 and the Super. Here's RDSS' version of E/L Diff Graph. (Took the liberty of adding in another of its 2 sprints showing)

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Also, using the #8's 3 lines, it owned 3 of the 4 top Late rankings (L/ep), which co-relates well to its E/L and MUG / TP+F3 readouts.

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Poorly performing horse last year, running 1st time after 308 days, likely counter-energy, so include in exotics, maybe a small side wager to WPS.

I take it the normal E/L range (or median) for 6.f at HST is about 35% higher than the #8's -0.6 to -4.2 (I don't have that E/L model). How do you calculate 35% lower? If the median of the E/L range is normally +5, 35% lower is +3.2. If the number is +2, 35% lower than +2 is +1.3

?

Ted
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Old 07-27-2009, 01:21 PM   #4
Tim Y
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One e.l graph would not have told you much if you had not monitored it during the day and seen the way it was going versus the standards. When the e/l says later, the incremental deceleration graph is gospel
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Old 07-29-2009, 11:40 AM   #5
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e-l graph

hello Ted, Tim:

If I handicapped the Hastings race that Tim posted, the exact same way as he did, using the exact two-three running lines, would the exact same '8' horse be the one listed first at the wire if I clicked the Segments tab on RDSS and looked at the total pace + fr 3 column?

I understand fully that a winner is a winner is a winner, especially at a 30-1 mutuel, but with those boxcars aside, how prudent is it really to select pacelines that are eight- and nine races deep ??

I also agree totally with you Tim on e-l importance, energy distribution and ac/dc -- the heart of the modern Sartin experiment.

Thanks to both for your imputs and thoughts.
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Old 07-29-2009, 11:52 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless View Post
If I handicapped the Hastings race that Tim posted, the exact same way as he did, using the exact two-three running lines, would the exact same '8' horse be the one listed first at the wire if I clicked the Segments tab on RDSS and looked at the total pace + fr 3 column?
Ralph,

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No comment on the use of line 9...

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Old 07-29-2009, 12:03 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless View Post
I understand fully that a winner is a winner is a winner, especially at a 30-1 mutuel, but with those boxcars aside, how prudent is it really to select pacelines that are eight- and nine races deep ??
My earlier comments about this horse were along the line of thinking: you have to be prepared (and you probably have to have some of record keeping showing successful ROI) to be betting on these kinds of improbable horses, at improbable odds, even given nice readouts and inside knowledge of (even if temporary) shifting E/L or other biases. You have to make the same choice every time this scenario recurs, otherwise we all look like geniuses in hindsight (and like Brad Pitt in the mirror). For ever time they hit, how many times do they lose (or worse, divert your bet away from a mere 4-1, also likely, winner).

I would like to have made this analysis before this race, seen the opportunity, made the decision to wager/not wager. And I salute whomever actually made a wager on this horse!

Ted
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Old 07-29-2009, 02:38 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
My earlier comments about this horse were along the line of thinking: you have to be prepared (and you probably have to have some of record keeping showing successful ROI) to be betting on these kinds of improbable horses, at improbable odds, even given nice readouts and inside knowledge of (even if temporary) shifting E/L or other biases. You have to make the same choice every time this scenario recurs, otherwise we all look like geniuses in hindsight (and like Brad Pitt in the mirror). For ever time they hit, how many times do they lose (or worse, divert your bet away from a mere 4-1, also likely, winner).

I would like to have made this analysis before this race, seen the opportunity, made the decision to wager/not wager. And I salute whomever actually made a wager on this horse!

Ted
First off, I am in agreement that to get higher priced mutuels it is imperitive to think out of the box.

And that might mean picking pacelines that do not seem conventional, if not downright silly; this also means taking a line from a lesser level racetrack than the one run at today, and/or using a race at a distance that isn't today's distance, or weird as it sounds to some, to use a paceline 7-8-9 lines back.

I am all for doing things on the contrarian side, while also knowing that I might not win races nearly as often as those best of last 3 players, I might cash on a 20-1 shot or better horse more often than not.

From my brief RDSS experience, I am of the opinion though that when I use a route paceline for a sprint race, that horse's late pace figures, plus their corresponding incremental match-up visual seem to make them stronger contenders than they possibly should be.

I feel that these steeds are ranked a big too high when using route pacelines in sprint races are used.

Again, I repeat: I have no qualms taking 30-1 mutuels, and am jealous of the guys that sniff these beauties out.
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Old 07-29-2009, 04:51 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless View Post
First off, I am in agreement that to get higher priced mutuels it is imperitive to think out of the box. I couldn't disagree with this more.

And that might mean picking pacelines that do not seem conventional, if not downright silly; this also means taking a line from a lesser level racetrack than the one run at today, and/or using a race at a distance that isn't today's distance, or weird as it sounds to some, to use a paceline 7-8-9 lines back. I disagree with this as well.

I am all for doing things on the contrarian side, while also knowing that I might not win races nearly as often as those best of last 3 players, I might cash on a 20-1 shot or better horse more often than not.

Again, I repeat: I have no qualms taking 30-1 mutuels, and am jealous of the guys that sniff these beauties out.
And now I'll explain why I disagree. I'll put a link here that will take you to the H.A.N.A. race two weeks a go at MNR.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=5914&page=2
If you start with my post you can follow it all the way through. Bill V. was kind enough to run my lines through KGEN.
ALL of my lines were the last line, except one and that one was the 3rd back, which was 52 days old. (see explanation)
ALL of my lines used similar distance and surface.
ALL lines came from the same track as today's, except for one.
EVERY LINE shows either a 1st or 2nd place finish except for two early horses. They showed a positional 1st or 2nd at each of the first two calls. Clearly pace players.
Horses with no recent race at a similar distance and surface were discarded.
Horses with absolutely no recent form were discarded.
This hardly seems "contrarian" and yet, the $32.80 winner comes to the top.
Bill V. ran the race through KGEN using the horses and lines he would use, which were slightly different from mine and the still got the $32.80 winner, albeit the second choice rather than the top choice.
My point is, this is not an isolated incident. Longer prices don't come along every race. However, they do come along from time to time and they are possible to get without any form of, shall I say, "trickery".
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Old 07-30-2009, 02:52 PM   #10
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question for both Tim and Ted

I mentioned this in one of my posts yesterday (Thursday) and had hoped both of you guys would have commented. I'll ask again:

When I use a route paceline for a horse that's running today in a sprint, that horse (1) often gets a very high late pace rating, and (2) is often a big contender if one looks at the total pace + fr3 in the incremental match-up (which I always look at).

Have you guys noticed any similar read-outs with turn-back horses??

Also, do you guys think that these read-outs could be artificially high due to the equalized adjustments in the program?

Thanks in advance to Tim and Ted.

Of course, any one else that wishes to weigh in please do.
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