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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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09-06-2017, 08:31 PM | #31 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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FTL
Thanks yes what you wrote helped Bill Thanks for the examples on the program |
09-07-2017, 09:12 PM | #32 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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FTL
I was thinking about what you said about the top horse being in the sort. I was using Energy like Synergism 2 where you would pick FW, EP and SP and the sort changed accordingly |
09-08-2017, 06:09 PM | #33 |
Grade 1
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Posts: 4,151
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FTL
This I feel is the one of the most important questions to ask but not sure if you have answer for it How do you decide if to pass or play a race? Bill feel free to comment as well |
09-08-2017, 06:55 PM | #34 |
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Posts: 7,014
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Hey Jeff,
Look for negatives on favorites to play against? (FWIW favorites in North America are winning at 38% clip in 2017. 2nd and 3rd choices paying less and less in most cases also.) Look for "extra stuff" on your price contenders like some of Pino's patterns etc? Keep a track profile if you are focusing on 1 or 2 tracks and look for an edge there? I hope you are doing great Jeff, all the best! Richie
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09-08-2017, 10:21 PM | #35 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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feel
Quote:
"It all depends on how I feel " There are many reasons why I would pass a race. The thing is one day I will pass a race, and on another day play it, Even if all the things that made me decide to pass were present in both races, You will get many excellent replies, to this kind of question Everybody is different, I may be much more emotional than most, So just because I think something does not make it something you should feel. On any given day I could be in a number of physical and emotional states that affect my decisions. I used to have to base my pass or play decisions based on my financial situation. But today I am much more solvent, When all I had was a $20 voucher and I needed gas money to get home and enough money for admission the next day, I was more apt to pass races, Today money is not such a burden on my decision-making process. But I am human. Some days I feel invincible, others I feel like I just want some fun activity, other days I'm too tired and just don't want to think too much, If I feel I can win I will make something out of just about any race I look at. I might play win only, win-place, win place show, Just show, I might look to play an exacta, I probably will choose at least 2 horses from the race and plays doubles or a pick 2 or pick 4 Or I might just say I will pass, We all are who we are, I am a believer in what Howard Sartin observed That winning is a mindset If I approach a race with the mindset of a winner I will play the race, somehow, Just about any race where all the horses have at least 3 pacelines and there are no more than 2 horses with too many unknowns but who have decent morning line odds, I will probably make some kind of wagering decision involving the race. Good Skill Bill |
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09-08-2017, 10:37 PM | #36 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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funny
hey Jeff
One more point, Often when I am in social situations at the racetrack I find it often happens that, I will look at a race and decide to pass, The people I am with generally expect me to win every race, I have looked at the race and I decide to pass, But my acquaintances are looking for me for my expert opinions I then will have to do the race. I just go into a relaxed almost unconscious "in the zone" mindset and just use my skills and throw out my top 3 BLBL or VDC or TPR horses, This relaxed "in the zone" ability almost always earns those around me a nice win and or exacta, In a race, I "felt" was a race I wanted to pass I can't explain it or why this happens but It has happened for many years. I then have to make some kind of small bet on those numbers, I can''t give people numbers and not bet the numbers myself. That to me is wrong to have people bet something I would not bet myself. Theis happened at Saratoga and at Monmouth when I was back east My two best wins were from races I only handicapped because I was asked "who do you like ?" |
09-08-2017, 11:20 PM | #37 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Richie,
Thanks for the reply and all the best to you and your family, from your pictures at the SPA you really look happy and I am glad to see it Bill Thanks as well and happy you were able to be at Monmouth with the family Last edited by shoeless; 09-08-2017 at 11:24 PM. |
09-09-2017, 07:40 AM | #38 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
You find a race where there are no “unknown factors”. You are able to get good pacelines for several horses in the race. Those horses with no lines, because they have no form, are eliminated as non-contenders. You enter your contenders into your program and get your two horses to bet. If the odds on one or both of your horses is too low….PASS THE RACE. What are odds that are “too low”? There is the obvious, such as your two horses are 4/5 and 2/1. Beyond that, it is up to each individual to set their own minimums. If I remember correctly, Doc’s advice was, if you encounter a race with two or more “unknown factors”...PASS THE RACE. What is an “unknown factor”? Here are some examples. A maiden race where there are two or more first time starters. A race being run on the turf and there are two or more horses with no turf lines. A race being run on the dirt and there are two or more horses with no dirt lines. A race at a sprint distance and there are two or more horses with no sprint lines. A race at a route distance and there are two or more horses with no route lines. These are some examples for you to begin with. My best advice is to pay attention to the races you handicap. Draw some conclusions of your own on every race you either play or pass. After the race, evaluate your thoughts prior to the race to those after the race. Ask yourself, “did I make the right decision?” Don’t reach any final conclusions until you have done many, many races. You can’t let “this race” dictate what you are going to do in the “next race”. You will need many, many decisions to base your conclusions on.
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09-09-2017, 08:14 AM | #39 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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FTL thanks very much for the reply
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09-10-2017, 08:04 PM | #40 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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Shoeless, a comment about #1 on your list of 5 important things on P/L selection.
this year I have handicapped 250 races which are mostly stakes and high optional claimers. out of those 250 47 horses with layoffs of 80 days or more have ran. I use 80 instead of 90. out of that 47 there have been 19 winners and 28 losers for a win % of 40.4. Also about 80% of my races are on the turf.....thought this might be of interest......Randy A. |
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