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Old 03-31-2010, 10:57 PM   #1
Bill P
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My first RDSS handicapping sessions. Yikes!!

OK, I've used RDSS for 4 races, let me pick your brains and see if I am reading my current handicapping situation correctly.

The first few sessions I had with RDSS were both at Santa Anita. Over two races this last weekend I was up nearly $100 using 2 win bets ($2 bet). I thought how hard can this be? Just plug the numbers in, pick a reasonable pace-line, and let RDSS do its magic. Easy as pie.

Well, after such a great weekend at the races I thought that I'd give weekday racing a shot. So, I download a Mountaineer race card plug the numbers in, pick a reasonable pace-line, and boom let RDSS do its magic like it did with Santa Anita. Badaboom Badabing. Yikes!!!! Every horse that was entered in a race seemed to be a Maiden 4 year old or a 4 year old plus $8,000 or less claimer. And it seemed they had all been laid off for over a year. Their pace lines were erratic, some had raced at 4.5 f in snow and then 2 weeks later raced 8 f on poly at a different track. I couldn't pick a winner if my life depended on it.

So tonight I though that maybe that was because Mountaineer just had an odd race schedule. I'll try Penn National tonight. At first it seemed to me that the pace lines were a little more consistent but I struck out again. O for the evening. Tonight I was also very careful to make sure I chose similar distances and surfaces in the pace lines I chose. I came close in some races but it seemed that every long-shot on the card was running well or the chalk won by 7 lengths.

So, is this normal for the “Minor” tracks? Can I expect to seem the same tough pace-line selection options all of the time? Can one win consistently at these races?

My primary goal right now is to improve my ability to select good pace lines and to develop the discipline to pass on stinker races where either the field has me too confused or there's no apparent value in the race.

I am reading the archival materials e,g,. Follow Ups and the other manuals, and I know much of this will come with experience; however, your thoughts on this are much appreciated.

Bill
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Old 03-31-2010, 11:19 PM   #2
Charlie D
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Hi Bill

OK

This comes from a man i would have liked very much to have met or even talked to, but i only discovered Paceandcap, and the Match Up only a couple of years ago and he sadly is no longer with us.

Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw

Quote:
I don't pick Pacelines, i pick horses

In each horses PP there is a "picture" of what the horse can and cannot do. Each race has a "picture" of how it will be won, that is either Early or Other than Early


Our job as cappers is to look for the "pictures" and select the horses we think are the TRUE contenders for the win today.


We are looking for repeating patterns.
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Old 03-31-2010, 11:46 PM   #3
Charlie D
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Here is a Lou using the information from the PP to form a "picture" and pick a horse.

Quote:
Interesting race. The heavy favorite, Conveyance, is undefeated but can he get the extra 1/8? A couple of horses who have never run on dirt and a couple of horses who have wins over the track.

From the limited results data I looked at, the best spot for a route winner seems to be positionally no worse than 4th, a couple of lengths off the lead all the way around. There was a winner who was 9th early on, so a deep closing win is possible.

If you think the 2 m/l favs might get hooked up where they go 47/47.1 at the 1st call, I think you can get a closer to win at 1 1/8. I may dig below the surface later if I have time.


I think there are 3 horses, possibly 4, fast enough to win this race. Unless Classical is a dirt freak and loves the dirt 1 1/8, I don't think he's fast enough to win.

I do agree with the other 3. Based on the total energies, no adjustment is needed in EXDC/Thoromation.

The EXDC screen has Conveyance winning by half a length over Nacho. The SP screen has Tempted winning by about 2 lengths over Nacho. The Thoromation screen has Nacho nosing out Conveyance, who is the Designated Place Horse.

This tells me Conveyance may not be a lock, but in my experience, undefeated horses are tough to bet against, no matter the readings.

A final twist would be Endorsement. IF he can improve off his maiden win, which his last 2 workouts suggest he might, if the pace goes too fast or the track plays to the late side, she could take it all. If she tries to go early here, she's done. I'm hoping Classical stretching out pushes Conveyance early.

Not my kind of betting race as I prefer older horses and less unknowns (track, distance, surface, etc.), but I might put a small bet on Endorsement if I can get a minimum 8-1 . I don't think I'll get it on the other contenders
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6694
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Last edited by Charlie D; 03-31-2010 at 11:55 PM.
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Old 04-01-2010, 02:33 AM   #4
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I have never used RDSS so I can't say one way or the other.

But I do know that picking through past performances,especially this time of the year and up north you are running into a lot of layoff horses and offtracks.

I find that when you can't isolate many current pacelines as relevant(because of offtracks,extreme surface variants),pace handicapping is only relevant as to predicting a probable pace.At least IMO.

Learning on a lot of these winter tracks it's useful to know the track profiles and often biases as they are so shifty this time of the year.Catching them before everyone else does is key.I have hit a lot of bombs at Beulah in the winter like this.But overall if you cannot predict the way a race will be run the results are often chaos.

I'd use profile,probable pace,and solid form & condition handicapping to remedy races that cannot be grasped by pure mathematics.
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Old 04-01-2010, 07:46 AM   #5
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Morning Bill
Working tracks here in the East like Ct, Pen, Mnr especially this time of year often leads to chaos. Off tracks, snow, wild fluctuations in surface(track) speeds and variants are the norm rather than the exception.

My feedback would be to stick with Santa Anita and the SoCal circuit where you had success. Then consider other Polytrack venues like Woodbine (scheduled to open tomorrow ) ,Turfway, Arlington.

Fwiw Woodbine has the longest running meet with the lowest % of favorites winning and one of the highest avg win prices in racing today. You will find good field sizes and better horses along with a super turf course and polytrack surface that is "done right". Attached are the stats for the WHOLE meet from last year and remember this runs April through December.

Best of luck Bill!
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Old 04-01-2010, 07:51 AM   #6
Bill P
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Thanks. Those are valuable insights. I learned a lot from Charlie, Richie, and Cincy's comments regarding a PL as just one of the tools I need to consider. I also think that, as Cincy pointed out, local knowledge of the various tracks and their biases are so important. I suspected that handicapping was a lot more difficult than just picking a good PL. If it was easy, there would be no racing.

So, to become a better handicapper, I am going to read Mr Bradshaw's "Match Up" manual carefully and see what I can glean from his ideas regarding horses and the races they run. There is much I have to learn.

In the short time I have been pursuing this fascinating pastime I have to say how great an experience it has been. Like many of you I am coming in to handicapping late in life. Not only because I see as a way to make some money (eventually) but because I enjoy a challenge. However, I had no idea of what a challenge it can be. But I have learned that nothing in life is as satisfying as meeting and overcoming great obstacles.

The insights, patience, and basic decency you all have shown in your responses to my questions and concerns are rare commodities in the Internet world where rudeness and incivility are often the norm.

I'll continue to ask what are probably tedious newbie questions but I promise to do my homework, learn more, and take your advice to heart.

Thanks again.

Bill
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Old 04-01-2010, 09:37 AM   #7
mikesal57
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Hi Bill..

The # 1 thing i can tell you is to "know thy track"

I know this will be hard but take 2 or 3 weeks of just entering lines and reviewing your results without betting

See what factors are winning at the various distances, its a short time but maybe you can see "whats winning" and "whats not"

Go over your results at S A and maybe you'll see something thats a positive factor and continue in that direction...

I'll tell you from experience, jumping from track to track will be disastrous!!

Find a track or two and learn it

good luck

mike
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Old 04-01-2010, 10:51 AM   #8
Bill P
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Thanks Mike.

I agree with you and plan to focus on where I am doing well and figure out why. I need to become conciously competent. I need to know why I'm failing or why I'm succeeding and make adjustment based on the facts.

Bill
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Old 04-01-2010, 11:57 AM   #9
mikesal57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill P View Post
Thanks Mike.

I agree with you and plan to focus on where I am doing well and figure out why. I need to become conciously competent. I need to know why I'm failing or why I'm succeeding and make adjustment based on the facts.

Bill
easy said then doing..lol

post up some screen shots from RDSS and the guys here can help you out..we'll
review your pacelines and might see something that you dont..
The guys here are the greatest!!

mike
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Old 04-01-2010, 03:25 PM   #10
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Agree with Mike with respect to "know thy track". Very important and it's hard to "know thy multiple tracks". That's why I mainly always stuck with the Socal circuit.

For example, the SAX turf mile has been going to EXDC (normal deceleration) all meet and has been going to the early horse the entire meet. Late closing sustained horses have not been able to get up, sometimes not even to complete the exacta. It makes life a heck of a lot easier when I know I just need to look at my EXDC screen on EXDC/Thoromation for my win decisions.

The poly sprints and esp. the routes are won form the SP screen for the most part. You still have to look at the pace structure of each race's contestants but for the most part, I use the SP screen. Again, makes life a lot easier.

Even though Doc was from CA, I remember him saying early on that the reason he mostly capped SoCal tracks was due to their consistency. They were all dirt at that time and fairly speed favoring, other than DMR sometimes and had pretty consistent distance profiles. I remember I hit a Pick 6 at SAX in the late 80's for about $10K on a sloppy track just by noticing the 1st 3 races were won by the horse that got the lead out of the gate and that's how I played the last 6 races comprising the Pick 6. I also knew the track had been sealed the night before due to rain which made it a freeway.

I don't think the poly has changed things much. It also has consistent profiles if you track them and make your decisions based on them. However, don't ever forget the advantages of lone speed or a lone closer in a highly pressured race no matter what the profile.

Last edited by lsosa54; 04-01-2010 at 03:30 PM.
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