SA r8 Gr2 San Gabriel 1/4/20

[rdiam]

SA r8 Gr2 San Gabriel 1/4/20, post time 3:07 PT:

In reverse order:

7 -- Acker: stepping up to Gr2, first after 91 day layoff, first after claim, positive jockey switch to Rosario, but recent races too slow for this group => use underneath in vertical exotics, if at all

2 -- Chosen Vessel: shortens up but appears too slow after pressing the pace early, usually spits the bit => TOSS

1 -- Desert Stone: stretches back out to 9f, dropping from Gr1 races, but has been off for 222 days, will be closing => use underneath in vertical exotics due to class

5 -- North County Guy: stepping up in class, cutting back in distance from last race, Gutierrez might try to steal on lead => worth a win bet at ML of 8-1 or higher, use in vertical exotics

3 -- Cleopatra's Strike: shortens up from last, has shown success at Gr2 level, second race off layoff, jockey switch to Cedillo => win bet at 6-1 (not likely), use in vertical exotics

4 -- Overdue: shortens up from last, 2nd race after layoff => win bet at 4-1 or higher, use in vertical exotics

6 -- Majestic Eagle: stretching out, can compete at Gr2 level, 2nd race after layoff, should win this if runs back to last race => win bet at 5-2 or higher, use in vertical exotics

Good luck

Richard

[Lt1]

Good luck Richard.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Best skill to you

Here is my look


Horse 1. Desert Stone Form is a question mark
He has been off 222 days The workouts are very good I will rat him off line 2

Horse 2. Chosen Vessel . I like the cutback in distance, I wll rate using line 3

Horse 3. Cleopatra's Strike Like the two horse I like the cutback
I will rate using Line 2

Horse 4. Overdue I will again take a cutback line I will use line 2

Horse 5. North Count Guy Line 2 is a recent plus line
I will excuse line 1 for distance

Horse 6. Majestic Eagle Line 1 is a returning race even effort
I will rate him using line 1 With a chance to improve

Horse 7.Acker. Comes in off a 90 + layoff His TPR'S lately rate him below this group
I will rate him offline 3

I will go with win bets as per Doc
using the 1 4 5

Good Skill

[Mitch44]

#1 OK after long layoff but will be bet down, price doesn't warrant risk

#4 B on improvement & eligible to improve, steps up and must prove it at low odds, at this point odds don't warrant risk

# 3 I believe this horse is better longer and don't like the cutback

# 6 ready to run best with 2nd race after layoff, should improve with extra distance.

order 6-1-3-4

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

The 222 day layoff horse wins. I thought this horse would be bet down and was surprised after posting to see the odds so went with it. For the best horse I thought the risk reward was there.

COMPLETED: a77da-b5bfb	SA	#8	$1 Exacta	1, 6, WT, 3, 4	none	$4.00	$22.10	+ $18.10	Claim Winnings Claim Winnings
COMPLETED: 719ad-fe21e	SA	#8	$2 Exacta	BX, 1, 6	none	$4.00	$0.00	- $4.00	Claim Winnings Claim Winnings
COMPLETED: ea662-96038	SA	#8	$5 Win	1, 6	none	$10.00	$40.50	+ $30.50

Nice call Bill.


Mitch44

[rdiam]

Class wins out:

1 16.20 5.60 4.00

3 3.00 2.40

6 3.20

2

5

$1 1-3 ex 22.10

$0.50 1-3-6 tri 31.65

$0.10 1-3-6-2 super 37.61

[Bill V.]

Thanks, Mitch and Richard

Those are super works

They surly were pointing for this race. Form and VDC
is what Doc said to look at with horses over 61 days

[Lt1]

Nice job Bill and Mitch especially using a horse off 220 days.
Tim

[Bill V.]

I hope Randy ": Akiinsrr" can give us the exact quote from Doc.
As far as layoff horses

I used the 1 horse, who was off of 222 days

Please note, the workouts! I include in my model the workout notations
Desert Storm is being primed for this race and was the top 2 VDC. Normally I avoid long layoff horses because at SA the percentages are so small for winning

[Mitch44]

Hello Bill,
I took note of the works in my analysis, especially the distance of the works. With SA a slower track now the works are even more impressive.


Sartin said; to paraphrase once a horse is laid off over 30 days the length of the layoff makes no difference. I suppose the "Doc" was attuned to Biorhythms and the 28 day physical cycle of humans and animals.


Mitch44