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Old 05-06-2013, 08:29 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Turf Paradise 9th at 1-7/8 miles on turf

Not much speed here. The 4 has been 3rd or better at the stretch call is 7 of its last 10 races. The 3 and 7 are next best at 3/10.

Not many in here look like they can get the distance. The 1 finished 4th in its last an 11 furlong race on turf; finished 3-3-2 to the stretch, finishing 4th by 1.25 lengths. This race is tandem with the 7.

3 won its only race over a mile 9 back; very consistent with 8/10 on board. Been racing as 20,000 claimer.

4 looks closest to pace/or he might be the pace. Fairly close up for OC 20 in last; 2nd back at 1.5 miles turf finished 2nd

7 finished 2nd by neck in 11 furlong truf race, tandem with #1; closed 8-8-7

9 Been racing turf miles at SA for c25000, but at bottom of PPs has 2 races at 1.25 mile turf and 2 at 1.5 mile on turf;

I don't like to rely on mile times from mile races unless they are supported by similar times from longer races. So the times I will mention are from longer races from anywhere in the PPs.

1 - 140.4: 3-3-2-4th -- 6th best mile time
3 - 139.7: 6-5-3 -1st -- 4th best mile time
4 - 140.0: 4-4-3 -2nd -- 5th best mile time
4 - 139.0: 3-2-2 -2nd -- 2nd best mile time
7 - 141.0: 8-8-7 -2nd -- 8th best mile time
9 - 136.2: 8-8-7 -5th -- 1st best mile time
9 - 139.2: 5-6-7 -4th -- 3rd best mile time
9 - 140.4: 6-5-5 - 3rd -- 6th best mile time

Concerns: the 9 with the best mile time and 3rd best has not been closing well lately; has most apparent experience at 10 furlongs +.

The 4 has 2 of the top 5 times and is likely to be closest to lead; Hat said that P type getting lead will be in unfamilair place and will find a way to lose.

The 1 probably will not be as close to pace as last time - last time went against 115 6f pace - should be faster tomorrow. The 7 might do a little better than 1, having finished 2nd in tandem with 1 last out.

I am taking the 3 to over come the 4 to win; I think that the 9 is a contender to win, but lack of closing is a concern, except that in last outs he was not closing vs. 134.6 mile time. the softer pace makes this my 2nd win choice, but could be low priced.

Exacta 3-4-9 box.

Good luck guys,
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Old 05-07-2013, 12:37 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
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added notes

The 1 three back could not beat C 80002L, 2 back won Alw2L; 1 back 4th in 35K stake;

The 2 is an 0/37 maiden;

the 3 - 2 back was second in open c 20000

the 4 - 4 back won for c 6250, 3 back was 2nd in a restricted c 8000 race, then 2nd in $15 stake; and was 6th in OC 20/n2x

The 5 cant beat 4000 claimers or even be competitive

The 6 2 back beat c 3000 who had not won in a year;

the 7 - 3 back won alw 2L , then won alw 3L in 2nd back and in last was 2nd in 35K stake

The 8 is 1/29 lifetime and not competitive in last two - looks to be going the wrong way

The 9 running at SA for C 25000 and just missing being on the board - c 20000 is probably his class at SA before he got claimed.

The 10 not competitive against c 300 2L

The 11 only 4th in open c 8000

Two classiest horses still look to be the 3 and 9.
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